A tornado watch has just been issued for our entire area effective through 8:00 AM. Tornadoes…Hail to 2.5 inches in diameter… Thunderstorm wind gusts to 80mph…and dangerous lightening are possible.

Storms are now starting to pop across eastern OK. Conditions are favorable for storm development with dewpoints in the upper 50s. A lone detached cell from a line just passing through Tulsa now is rapidly developing. We’re monitoring developments closely and will advise you with both on-air and on the web as conditions warrant.

Activity still looks to press through by 8:00 AM.

Storms have finally fired along the dryline moving across NE OK. Thunderstorms are still forecast to build down the line as the boundary encounters juicy dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The air mass ahead of the line remains unstable, and conducive for severe storm development.

These storms should be nearing Tulsa around 1:00 a.m. The storms are linear in nature; however, individual rotating cells within the line are still possible. The main threat with these cells will be large hail near the size of quarters, along with damaging winds over 60 mph. We'll expect these storms closing in on Delaware, Cherokee, and Adair counties after 2 a.m. with additional storms forecast to impact NW AR and the River Valley after 3 a.m.

Dewpoints continue to surge south of the warm frontal boundary. The warm front has been the focus for nasty storms this evening; however, the dry line's starting to move east, and we'll expect some storms shortly after midnight to develop down the dry line. The main short wave energy remains west, and will act as the trigger to develop more storms across central Oklahoma.

Shear values are still impressive, so if storms can develop, these storms will have a chance to rotate and possibly drop tornadoes. The best chance for storms across our area will be after 3 a.m.

The central plains have experienced a decent cap this afternoon, keeping thunderstorms from developing. The cap is the warm air aloft that prohibits air to rise in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Without rising air, thunderstorms can't build!

The cap is now breaking across central Oklahoma this evening. A trough of low pressure is now swinging trough western Oklahoma, which is now sparking storms across southern Kansas. The storms will likely back build down the dry line and intensify after sundown. Dewpoints continue to rise ahead of the trough, which will help hold the storms together overnight.

Most of the severe activity will stay west of our area this evening; however, after midnight, we'll expect more showers and storms with large hail and damaging winds. There remains an isolated tornado threat overnight. I'll have another update before 10 tonight.

Looking at the 0Z data, the timing for severe weather remains in line for Thursday morning. As a warm front moves north tomorrow, we'll see dew points climb into the 50s. More available moisture means a better chance for nocturnal thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The cap is pretty strong for Wednesday afternoon, so other than a stray shower or two, we'll be windy and mild. The showers will be aided by strong 850 mb winds aloft and the mountainous terrain of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Southerly winds will move gulf stratus throughout our area on Wednesday, so full on sunshine will be limited. Look for highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s; however, if your area receives more sunshine, expect to see the mercury rise rapidly!

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats for severe weather by Thursday morning. These storms will move east during the morning hours, leaving Thursday afternoon dry.

Despite strong wind shear on Saturday, most of the area was spared from nasty severe weather due to the lack of available moisture. Straight line winds did create substantial damage in Spiro, OK, but will we see the same situation for Thursday?

Right now we're watching a trough over the western United States that will deepen and head east across the central plains toward the middle of the week. This current storm system resembles the one we saw over the weekend. Wind shear won't be as pronounced, however, the timing is identical. We'll expect a dry line to fire out to our west on Wednesday, providing us a chance for storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most of these storms will be elevated, or above the cap as the low level jet strengthens. The storms activity will shift east during the day on Thursday, so rain and storms will be confined to the morning hours.

These storms will have more low level moisture to work with, so the SPC has the entire area in a slight risk for severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats. The tornado probability is low, especially since the winds from 850mb to 250mb are all out of the southwest.

Elevated storms are known for being hail producers, so we'll continue to update you with the latest information.

Gusts in our area have been in the 35 to 50+ mph range for several hours now. The parent storm that brought us the thunderstorms this morning is now pushing into MO. Central pressure with this intense mid-latitude cyclone has been as low as 988mb, and quite possibly lower. Central pressure in a minimal Category 1 Hurricane is about 980mb; two entirely different storms but, intensity wise, not to0 far apart. As the Low pushes off to the east north east our winds will slowly subside though it will be a very windy night.

Severe weather was isolated this morning even though we were under a tornado watch. The atmosphere probably just didn’t have enough juice / moisture to sustain long lived supercells through our area. The amount of wind shear was off the charts, though general consensus here in the 40/29 weather center was that the amount of wind at mid levels may have in effect cut off inflow of warm moisture laden air to developing storms. Sunshine and heating was absent too; though, later in the day the right combination of ingredients did come together for a series of potent thunderstorms east of Little Rock. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all who were affected by the Dumas tornado as well the several others that hit today close to the AR / MS border.

We’re watching developments closely for what looks to be round two of 2007, thunderstorm-wise. A trough with a lot of energy upstream is digging just of the British Columbia coast. Once again, this will likely develop a surface low to the west of us by the mid week time frame. As mentioned in other discussions recently, position and specific timing will determine the severity of the associated weather.

Kite flying anyone?

As of 5:00PM, what were just a few small radar returns have now blossomed into supercell thunderstorms in the central pan handle of Texas. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued as well as a few tornado warnings.

For our area we’ll look for thunderstorm development after midnight and a threat of severe weather to remain through the early part of tomorrow afternoon. At this point of most concern will be high gusty winds, large hail and even an isolated tornado out ahead of a probable line of thunderstorms.

We’ll be here monitoring developments with storms throughout the entire evening and overnight period. If there’s weather happening you’ll know about it! Keep it tuned to 40/29, we’ll keep you advised on-air and on the web!

The latest 0Z run has us in the severe weather window for Saturday morning into the early afternoon. I'm afraid that central and eastern Arkansas will really be under the gun for dangerous storms throughout the Saturday evening time frame.

Large hail and strong damaging winds throughout the area remain the most likely severe weather threats. Isolated tornadoes are still possible, especially given the amount of shear in the atmosphere. The low level jet cranks over 50 knts by Saturday morning, so we may see some elevated hail producing storms before the main line moves in. The bulk of the storms should be moving east as a squall line; however, if any storms form ahead of the line, they will likely rotate and become severe.

We'll continue to update you on the air and on the web!

The latest model information has come out, so now it's time to update the timing for severe weather. I want to remind people that the most ideal time for severe weather and tornadoes is during the late afternoon and early evening; however, given the strong dynamics with this spring-like storm, overnight severe weather will still remain possible.

The 0Z data suggests storms to develop across western Oklahoma during the day on Friday. These storms will head east and move into our area by Saturday morning. A line of storms will race across the region with embedded rotating supercells within the line. The best severe weather timing will likely be from 6 a.m. till Noon. It will be very interesting to see these storms initiate and evolve to our west throughout Friday afternoon.

Large Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threat across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out given the wind shear in the atmosphere. We'll continue to update you on the air and on our weather blog!

The 6Z weather models continue to paint a risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms this coming Saturday. The wind energy will be tremendous with this system as a 100 knot plus jet streak slides across our area in the favored jet region causing divergence aloft. Lee side cyclogenesis will be potent as well with the surface low cranking down into the 980's as it slides east across Kansas by Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile a dryline will sharpen southbound into central Oklahoma. Our 3rd ingredient is what we will have to moniter very closely; the moisture/resulting instability. ATTM most forecast models are currently forecasting meager instability though they could be underestimated the values due to gulf stratus.

If 60+ dewpoints rise north into the river valley and northwest Arkansas, and sunshine can break through the gulf stratus, rotating supercells will be a possibilty by early Saturday afternoon, with a threat of tornadoes.

The last fly in the ointment would be how quickly the mode of severe would go from isolated/scattered supercells to a squall line, due to the large amount of forcing with the system. Once this occurs the threat will be mainly wind damage.

Lots to come on this evolving situation, so stay tuned for many more updates!

Our long range computer models continue to paint the possibility for severe weather on Saturday. A potent negatively tilted trough will swing our way by the upcoming weekend; moreover, the dynamics involved in this system seem to be capable of supporting rotating supercell thunderstorms, which may include a decent tornado threat. Moisture on Thursday and Friday will easily stream in from southerly winds off of the gulf of Mexico, setting the stage for elevated storms before the main show on Saturday. Dewpoints could reach the 60's......All the ingredients look to come together by Saturday.

We still feel a strong jet streak by Saturday afternoon will ignite the dry line across central Oklahoma. These storms will race NE during the evening, so we'll be challenged chasing these storms as they move across eastern Oklahoma. I wouldn't be surprised to see storms moving over 40 mph! Tis the season......

Now is the time to talk with your family about your severe weather safety plan. The dinner table is a great place to make your plan. Seconds do count in severe weather, so please make sure everybody is clear on what to do if the weather turns severe!

A shortwave around 17,000 feet in the atmosphere is creating light to moderate snow this evening across sections of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Some of the heavier snow has been seen across Sequoyah county. The best chance for accumulating snow will occur along and south of I-40. An additional dusting to a half inch is possible. Please use caution tonight, especially where heavy snow is falling. Slick spots will be a problem this evening, especially on bridges and overpasses.

Most of the snow will taper off by 10 p.m. Cold temperatures in the single digits and teens will start our Friday morning!

On Saturday, February 17th, the National Weather Service will hold a storm spotter training class at Sutton Elementary school in Fort Smith. This will take place at 12:30. There is no cost for this event.

For other spotter training dates please go to this link....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/spotter2007.htm

Looking at the 0Z data...there's still a window of opportunity to see a mix of snow and rain throughout the area on Tuesday. Temperatures aloft will cool during the morning, and that will allow for the mix of rain and snow. No major accumulations are expected, but don't be surprised to see a wintry mix during the late morning and early afternoon. This mix not only includes NW AR and NE OK, but also the River Valley. We'll likely see flurries throughout the course of the afternoon as the precipitation comes to an end.

The big story will be the falling temperatures on cold northerly winds! Look for the winds to gust over 20 mph, dropping temperatures throughout the day into the 30s! Cold temperatures will take us through the week until a ridge builds back across the region toward the weekend!

Monday’s rain will be the heaviest that we’ve seen for the month of February. Both Fayetteville and Fort Smith are still just at a trace for accumulated precipitation so far. Things will be changing though as a potent storm system brings rain, thunderstorms and even a little snow to our area.

Grid interpolated rain fall amounts have been as high as 1.75” for the next 36 hours and as light as an inch. The trend has been for a wetter solution. The best dynamics for severe weather look to remain south of our area, though a few stronger storms may develop especially south of I-40. Everyone should end of with a nice soaking which will continue to help fill area lakes and that’s great news!

On the winter side of things, this storm does look to pull in quite a bit of cold air by Tuesday morning and both short range and long range forecast model consensus has continued to advertise some lingering precipitation once NE OK and NW AR drop below 32F early on Tuesday. In fact, liquid equivalents of up to .20 inch’s have shown up for KFYV with a frozen column. Take a 10 to 1 ratio and that’s a couple of inches.

We’ll be monitoring developments throughout the event. Be sure to check out the news at Sunrise with Justin for the latest.

After a slight warm up on Sunday and Monday and a brief return to seasonal averages temperature-wise, it’s looking like we’re in for another extended cool period. The big question has been whether or not this cold air will meet up with some moisture. Right now we may be looking at some form of a light wintry mix on early Tuesday as Monday’s system pulls through. For awhile it was looking like a real snowstorm was trying to develop for next Wednesday. As much as Drew, Justin and I would like to see one good snowstorm this year, it’s looking like we’ll still have to wait if it’s going to happen this year. The general consensus is that Monday’s system may in effect rob the midweek one of moisture, leaving us just cold.

There is still some hopeful optimism based on a strong Jet parked just to our south and west, but the best dynamics involved with this in respect to position look to occur with Monday’s rain. The mid Atlantic states on the east coast will be in a dyanamic bull’s eye from two aligned Jets next week and it’s likely that there a hefty snowstorm will develop.

In fact, long range forecast models have both the Northern branch and Southern branch of the Jetstream merging next week just to our south. This will trap in yet another batch of cold air and we look to remain below averages temp-wise. Our long wave pattern is somewhat benign though the short wave pattern is littered heavily with ripples. This in turn will keep our weather active and the forecasting tricky!

Our mean wind flow has been out of the NW for the past week or so. The main pattern across the country has been that of a ridge in west and a trough in the central part of the country, stretching across the eastern seaboard. A succession of storm systems out in the Pacific Ocean will be chipping away at the ridge in the West and by Monday it appears as if our flow will be more from the due West with a strong jet pushing into the SW States.

This Jet looks to spin up a Low that will bring us measurable rain on Monday, but then things get very “winteresting” there afterwards. There has been some agreement for another Low to develop by next Wednesday just south of the area. Might this be the fabled and all too elusive Texarkana Low in the works, the kind that can bring snow to River Valley? Maybe so! Needless to say, at this point it’s something that bears watching and we’ll be monitoring developments closely.

Talk about up and down temperatures for this week! Tuesday we'll see highs climbing some 10 to 15 degrees above average as compressional heating develops off the Rockies. Westerly flow aloft will create this warming feature on Tuesday afternoon. Compressional heating is the warming of air molecules using the dry adiabatic lapse rate. This says that a dry parcel of air warms at a rate of 5.5 degrees every 1,000 ft as it descends to the surface. Pressure increases as the flow comes of the Rockies, so the air molecules warm quickly; however, this warmth will be short lived, as colder temperatures return toward the middle of the week.

Temperatures will fall Wednesday behind a frontal boundary that could set the stage for some light precipitation by Thursday morning. Temperatures across NE OK and NW AR by Thursday morning may hover at or slightly below freezing, so patchy areas of freezing rain and drizzle are in the forecast for Thursday morning north of I-40. Computer models are spitting out a few tenths of an inch, so precipitation is expected to be on the light side. We'll watch this closely!

It’s appears as if our general wind flow will closely be driven by a strong NW to SW jet. As this boundary shifts to the NE and then back to the SW we will warm and then conversely cool. With that being said, through the first half of the upcoming week it looks like we’ll get into a weak ridging pattern as the jet moves up to the NE. By the end of the week though, a short wave is likely to bring in a shot of cold air which may coincide with a moist flow from the south at low levels.

Like we saw back in January, this would be a set up for some accumulating ice. A little layer of below freezing air near the surface is all it takes to make things treacherous on the road and plague trees and power lines. Timing-wise a Thursday into Friday event seems to have the most consistency at this point. There has been some agreement in a few of the long range numerical forecasting models and at this point it definitely bears watching. Precipitation appears to be light in association with this scenario but it only takes a little ice to wreak havoc on the roads.

We’ll be monitoring developments in the days to come closely and in the meantime a few days with highs closer to seasonal averages should be nice!

Olive Oil & Bees Wax Hand Salve!

First, I must give credit where credit is due. I first learned about this hand-restoring salve while going to school in New Hampshire. One January the temp remained below 5F for nearly two weeks. My hands were cracking and the pain especially at the fingertips was very uncomfortable. While picking up a few things at the local hardware store I happened across a little metal tin that read Grandpa Gillian’s Hand Salve. The entire list of ingredients consisted of Olive Oil and Bees Wax. I picked some up and almost instantly my hands felt better. Within a very short time, the rough and chapped skin along with the painful cracks had gone away. Later, I bought another.

After buying a few more I decided that I should just try to make the stuff myself. The difficult thing is getting the proportions right but here’s what seems to work.

Ingredients:

Get some Bees Wax. Craft stores sell this. The unrefined kind seems to work best. It has a yellowish brown tint.

Get some Olive Oil. We use the Extra Virgin kind for cooking a whole bunch at home, so I’ve mostly used that, but any type of olive oil will work fine.

Get a little metal tin. I use one that had little Citrus Sour candies in it. There are a bunch of these types of containers with some type of candy or mint in them, readily available in Supermarket checkout isles.

Making the salve:

With the tin emptied of its contents, place it on a front stove burner and fill it about half way with oil. Then, mix in a good bit of wax. Put burner on low. It doesn’t take a whole lot of heat to melt the wax. Stir gently with a wooden tooth pick. The ratio is close to one to one. Use a set of cooking tongs to CAREFULLY pick up the tin by the sides once all the wax has melted. Place it on a plate and then set the plate in the fridge and then wait about twenty minutes.

By this time it will have solidified and you can test the consistency by scraping a little with the back of your finger nail. It should be a just little on the mushy side. This is the stuff! Try using it after you wash your hands when they’re still a little damp, by scraping some on to your thumbnail and then rubbing it into your hands. A little goes a long way. It will feel greasy at first, but that will go away in a few minutes leaving your hands feeling good!

Tips:

If the mixture turned out too cakey and brittle, that means that there’s too much wax in it. Remove some wax and add more oil. Re-melt and cool and try again. Similarly, if the mix turns out too oily, take out some, put in more wax, re-melt and cool. Also, a little Petroleum Jelly (a little scoop using the butter knife) added to the mix while melting will help smooth out the consistency.

ENJOY!

Most of the snow tonight has ended south of I-40. Tonight's snowfall ranged between 1 and 2 inches over the higher elevations of SE OK and SW AR. The entire area will still have a chance for flurries, but the measurable snow continues to move across central Arkansas.

What a way to end January and start February. Most of the area saw some sort of snow accumulation, with the higher amounts reported across northwest Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma. North of I-40 most towns saw between 2"-4" of snow. The River Valley saw anywhere from a dusting to 2 inches.

As always, the 40/29 Storm Team will be keeping an eye out for the next potential winter storm, and we'll continue to update you on our weather blog. Thanks again for your comments and e-mails.

Light snow has pushed through the River Valley and as temps have warmed some, we’re seeing ice covered roads turn into a mix of slush and sand. Bridges and overpasses are likely still frozen with temps hovering just below the freezing mark. Not to sound like a broken record, but, if you must travel on snow covered roadways please use extreme caution. There have been numerous fender benders as well as cars that have simply slid off the road!

OK, let’s talk some weather! In mid layers of the atmosphere our wind flow is from the South West. This is carrying two batches of precipitation; one just to the north and south of Tulsa, this stretches back to the Ponca City area of OK and one stouter bull’s eye just to the north and west of Dallas. This fetch of precipitation is likely to give the Ouachita Mountains some additional snow, possibly along the order of a few inches or more up around the Queen Wilhelmina State park area. The big question is whether or not this southern batch will make it into the River Valley area. Timing wise, this would occur in the early evening.

In lower layers of the atmosphere, winds in association with the batch of precipitation near Tulsa are from the West North West, and as talked about, the batch near Dallas has movement to the East North East. Winds at about 5000’ are converging or coming together in the River Valley. This funneling affect will likely bring light precipitation into the area close to the early evening hours. Points southward will likely be affected more by the southern batch. NW AR will likely be clipped by the northern batch.

Additional accumulations for most of us at this point will be light with perhaps an additional inch or so falling in some of the heavier bands. Temps will remain chilly over the next several days with just a scant warm up on Sunday.


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