Wednesday, February 28, 2007
12:30 Update
Storms have finally fired along the dryline moving across NE OK. Thunderstorms are still forecast to build down the line as the boundary encounters juicy dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The air mass ahead of the line remains unstable, and conducive for severe storm development.
These storms should be nearing Tulsa around 1:00 a.m. The storms are linear in nature; however, individual rotating cells within the line are still possible. The main threat with these cells will be large hail near the size of quarters, along with damaging winds over 60 mph. We'll expect these storms closing in on Delaware, Cherokee, and Adair counties after 2 a.m. with additional storms forecast to impact NW AR and the River Valley after 3 a.m.
These storms should be nearing Tulsa around 1:00 a.m. The storms are linear in nature; however, individual rotating cells within the line are still possible. The main threat with these cells will be large hail near the size of quarters, along with damaging winds over 60 mph. We'll expect these storms closing in on Delaware, Cherokee, and Adair counties after 2 a.m. with additional storms forecast to impact NW AR and the River Valley after 3 a.m.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 9:59 PM
3 Comments:
Good Morning 40/29 weather team... I know you all are very busy this early morning hour tracking the storms that are headed our way. But I have a few questions I hope you can answer...
Can you please explain what this means??
AN INTERESTING PATTERN HAS BEEN EVOLVING IN THE
MESOSCALE GRID FIELDS. BOTH THERMODYNAMICLY DRIVEN
CALCULATIONS AND KINEMATIC CALCULATIONS SUGGEST A
SUBTLE BOUNDARY MAY BE EVOLVING FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF BARTLESVILLE TO MUSKOGEE TO SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN
COUNTY. WE DO NOT REALLY SEE THIS IN THE HAND ANALYSIS...
BUT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND POTENTIAL STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO MAXIMIZE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBE AXIS.
I have been keeping my eye on the weather myself this early morning not because I like to but because I have a fear of storms and I have to keep my family safe incase something should happen..
Will the storms be in the Poteau/Fort Smith area at 3:00am?
I love the blog i think its great It helps to keep you up to date when bad weather does strike.
Thank you for any information you can give..
Hi, I live in Mena. I just wanted to say I really love this weather blog. This is now my favorite weather website. I thought I might stay up and watch the storms roll in, but it doesn't sound like they will get here until a few more hours. I hope the weather blog is here to stay. Thanks
Hello Boo,
The discussion is referring to stability parameters within a relatively small scale.
“Mesoscale” pertains to atmospheric phenomena having horizontal scales ranging from a few to several hundred kilometers, including thunderstorms, squall lines, fronts, precipitation bands in tropical and extratropical cyclones, and topographically generated weather systems such as mountain waves and sea and land breezes.
“Kinematics” is defined as the branch of dynamics that describes the properties of pure motion without regard to force, momentum, or energy. Translation; advection, vorticity, and deformation are examples of kinematic variables.
There are many forecast products available. Numerical weather prediction forecast models among many variables can calculate values of moisture convergence (as the name might suggest a region that is increasing in moisture) and or storm relative helicity values (a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells).
The forecasters were commenting that model forecast data suggested a hot spot for storm development along the mentioned geographical area, though real-time data analysis or hand analysis did not.
We’re glad that you enjoy reading the weather blog. It lets us dive deeper into the forecast than we’re able to on-air. First and foremost our job too is to keep you and your family safe!
Best Regards,
Ted Zarras
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