Impressive Severe Weather Photos.........
These photos were taken by two different people, at two different angles; however, they were both taken at College Place subdivision in Bentonville, AR. In the first photo you can see the mesocyclone, along with the wall cloud below it. The second shot was a close up view of the wall cloud.
No actual touchdown was reported in Benton county, however, there was a confirmed tornado spotted 1 mile north of Council Hill in Muskogee County.
This is a shot of the rotation near Centerton, AR. A different view from the ground up.
Hail was another issue with the storms that blew through Benton County. Here are some of the most impressive hail pictures. The first picture was hail that piled up to 7 inches near Bentonville, AR!
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:20 PM
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8:00 Pm Update
There have been many reports of hail up to the size of golf balls across Benton County and across much eastern OK. Trained storm spotters did report a tornado 1 mile north of Council Hill, in Muskogee County, OK.The heaviest activity is now south of the River Valley area and moving to the ESE. We are monitoring all storms and will break in to programming as deemed necessary.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 6:10 PM
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Thunderstorms Firing
We've got a springtime clash of the air masses happening right now. For most of the day the atmosphere was "capped"; a layer of warm air sat aloft and inhibited rising motion and convection. This "cap" is breaking! A thin line of shower activity along with some Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing. Storm motion is to the ESE at some 15 to 20 mph. 
Note how there has been a collection of moisture along the boundary. This feature has been building over the past several hours.
-Talk about a "thin" line! These storms likely are rather picturesque with basically no other clouds around in the vicinity of the action. We'll be monitoring developments closely. The main threat with this late-day activity will be hail and damaging winds.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 3:23 PM
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STRONG STORMS NEXT WEEK...
Here is a look at the precipitation forecast for Monday night into Tuesday morning. This is very far out but right now there could be a possibility for some strong thunderstorms. Some of these storms could produce some heavy rain, exactly what we don't need. We will be watching this storm system very closely over the next several days, so keep it tuned to 4029tv and 4029tv.com for the very latest.
Posted by Patrick Crawford at 5:35 AM
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Severe Weather Special...........
We want to invite all of you to watch our Storm Team Special this Thursday evening, at 6:30, only on 40/29. We'll look at future radar technology, severe weather safety, and a special behind the scenes look at a severe weather event.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:47 PM
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Windy Conditions...Here Comes the Moisture
Windy conditions dominated the weather headlines for Tuesday. The winds are also signalling the return of deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico; that moisture may materialize into thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday.
Look at the winds at 850 mb. These strong afternoon winds around 5,000 ft aloft helped to mix the atmosphere out, and produce the strong wind gusts at the surface. 850 mb winds also help to transport Gulf of Mexico moisture in the form of a low stratus deck. We're already seeing this stratus move north throughout Texas.
Here's the rule of thumb: you typically need winds over 35 knots out of the south to transport stratus across Oklahoma and Arkansas. We've seen that today, so expect stratus to move across our area late tonight and into Wednesday, creating a mostly cloudy sky.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 4:23 PM
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Smoke Filled Air....
Nearly 3,000 acres of the Ouachita National Forest in Scott county fell victim to a controlled burn on Monday. The smoke created a hazy atmosphere this evening causing visibility issues, and minor respiratory problems. Unfortunately, the atmospheric conditions overnight will promote the smoke to hang around, and that could cause some minor visibility issues.
Take a look at the graphic above. As the ground cools off rapidly after the sun goes down, a warm layer typically develops above the boundary layer, and that acts like a trap when it comes to smoke and pollutants. This trap is known as an inversion layer, and until the low levels of the atmosphere warm enough to erode the inversion, the smoke and haze will stick around.
Fortunately, we're expecting breezy conditions for Tuesday, which will create enough mixing to disperse the smoke filled air.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:26 PM
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KILLER TORNADOES
The information below is from http://www.tornadoproject.com/ CHECK IT OUT! The site is FILLED with all things "tornado". We're just now approaching peak season. Be safe, Be smart, Know what to do! Mark your calender too for this Thursday's Severe Weather Special on 40/29 TV at 6:30 PM.
The graph above shows the monthly distribution of "killer" tornadoes in the US from 1950-1994. Statistics show that the least likely month for a tornado dangerous enough to take lives is July, and the most likely is April. Note that this distribution is different than the monthly distribution for ALL tornadoes. On that graph, which is below, May is the month that has the most tornadoes. You might think that the month that has the MOST tornadoes would also be the month that has the most tornado deaths, but that is not so. There are a number of factors that affect this difference.
The tornadoes that occur earlier in the year are more intense and violent than those that occur later.
Since darkness falls earlier in March and April than it does in May or June, the tornadoes often strike after dark, and sometimes very late at night, when tornadoes are more difficult to spot visually, and are more likely to catch people unaware.
Tornadoes that occur earlier in the year tend to be in the southern states of the US. They are often rain wrapped. Since the weather in the southern states is more temperate, the homes are built to different specifications than those in states that experience colder weather. Many homes are set on blocks rather than on a slab foundation or over a basement. They may be built of unreinforced cement or cinder blocks. A high water table in some states precludes construction of a basement. Rural poverty is prevalent in some areas. These factors make the homes and their occupants in the Southern states more vulnerable.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 9:41 PM
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GROWING TIME
Posted by Ted Zarras at 8:22 PM
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POSSIBLE 80° TEMPERATURES...
A big warm up looks to be in the forecast next week. It's still a little early to be very confident with this prediction, but here is a look at the GFS model for Thursday afternoon. Notice all the warm air pushing in out of the south and southwest. I wouldn't be surprised if the River Valley will be in upper 70s and flirting with 80°...stay tuned!
Posted by Patrick Crawford at 3:19 AM
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Arkansas River Flooding
The river crested at Fort Smith/Van Buren yesterday at nearly 28 feet (about 5 feet over flood stage). The river is falling now and most of the roads that are currently closed (like Hwy 255 near Central City) should be open by tomorrow morning. The Poteau River at Panama has also now crested and is falling but it may not be below flood stage until Sunday or Monday.
Posted by Brian Emfinger at 4:26 PM
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Does Winter Return on Easter?
The GFS has been dancing all around this question over the last several days by hinting at a shortwave trough to come through just in time for Easter. With cold already in place, the mountains of SE OK and SW AR will stand the best chance for snow, especially above 2,000 ft.
Notice the 850 mb freezing line extends all the way south of our area. A cold front on Saturday will set the stage for winter weather.
If this QPF prediction came true, SE OK and SW AR would pick up between 2 and 4 inches of snow by Easter afternoon! The NAM is also coming on board with the shortwave, so this is something we'll be watching closely. I wonder if the Easter bunny owns a pair of snow shoes?
Posted by Drew Michaels at 11:01 PM
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RAINFALL ESTIMATES...
Here is a look that the rainfall estimates as of 7:00 am Wednesday morning. Northern and northwest Arkansas received anywhere from 4-8 inches from the heavy rains that moved through the area. A majority of the viewing are witnessed at least 3 inches. We will be getting official totals throughout the day and we will also be receiving updated storm damage reports so make sure you watch Drew Michaels at 5,6 and 10 for the very latest estimates and reports from this major weather event.
Posted by Patrick Crawford at 6:45 AM
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Mulberry & Little Mulberry River Flooding
A road washed out next to a bridge over the Little Mulberry River
Some broad rotation on Severe Warned storm near Ozark.
Posted by Brian Emfinger at 2:16 AM
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4:00PM Update
Posted by Ted Zarras at 1:35 PM
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TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6:00 PM
A Tornado Watch is in effect until 6 PM for SE OK and SW AR. Showers and storms developing in Northern Texas will have ingredients favorable for Tornado development as they move into the SE OK and SW AR. These storms will be monitored very closely and we will keep you advised of any severe outbreaks.
Posted by Patrick Crawford at 9:32 AM
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FLOODING
Rain has been falling at very high rates through the overnight for NE OK and NW AR. Rainfall totals by 6:00 AM were nearing 3 inches, with more showers and storms to come throughout the day. Flooding will be a major concern today so make sure you keep checking 4029tv.com and 40/29 TV for the very latest weather information.
Posted by Patrick Crawford at 4:04 AM
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TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 6:00AM
Our entire area,with the exception of Delaware and McDonald counties, is under a newly issued tornado watch. A low level jet, (strong & steady winds at 5000') coming in from the due south in excess of 60 mph is helping to fuel widespread thunderstorm activity. Due to the wind shear present throughout the night, any individual thunderstorm has the potential to put down a tornado. We're monitoring this threat closely, though the more prevalent threat will be hail and gusty winds. Heavy rain, producing widespread flooding, continues to be of major concern as well.
The major player with present activity and the flood threat is a healthy trough to our west, depicted well on the 500mb chart above. Check out the "ripply" flow in the base of the trough. Each one of these "kinks" will spark more rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain. The latest 5-day total precipitation map (depicted below) has us quite centrally located in the bulls eye of heavy rain. Please be mindful of flooded roads over the next few days!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 8:07 PM
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7:30 Update
*Shadows, created by the high and cold cloud tops of thunderstorm activity show up nicely too in the visible shot.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 5:23 PM
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6:30Pm Update / TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1:00 PM
Strong cells have erupted in NE TX, SW OK, and SW AR. All individual thunderstorms will be watched very closely for the potential of large hail, gusty winds and an isolated tornado. By 1:00 AM tonight, rain activity looks to fill in and become more widespread, lessening the tornado threat.
As we approach the evening, a strong low level jet in excess of 50 kts. will be pushing into our area out of the SSW. At the surface, winds are spiraling into a developing area of Low pressure from the SE. This presents a shift in wind direction and wind speed with height; in other words, the atmosphere is strongly sheared, posing the threat of rotating supercells and isolated tornadoes. 
A very deep trough of Low pressure is still sitting to the west, moving slowly to the east. Along with threat of severe weather, flash flooding will be a major concern through Wednesday morning. Please be careful out on the roads.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 3:50 PM
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Here Comes The Rain.......
Several inches of rain can be expected through Wednesday morning across Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A flood watch is in effect, so please be mindful of rising water in flood prone areas. It wouldn't surprise me to see most locations pick up between 3 and 6 inches of rain; however, when you add in thunderstorms, some isolated spots could see rainfall totals approaching 7 inches!
So far this month the River Valley has seen the highest totals of precipitation. Fort Smith has already picked up 5.66" of rain as of Monday, March 17th, and that's already 1.72" above the average for the month. Here are some records to keep in mind as the rain is falling:
Fort Smith March Record Monthly Rain: 13.03" 1945
Fort Smith 24 Hr Record Rainfall: 3.62"
Posted by Drew Michaels at 9:08 AM
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FLOOD POTENTIAL...
Showers and storms developing later today will bring some very heavy rainfall totals. Here is the outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Notice the bulls eye of heavy rain over the viewing area. A possibility of over seven inches of total rainfall! We are under a flash flood watch now, but you can expect it to turn into a flash flood warning with rainfall totals like this. Other characteristics of the storms will be strong winds, severe hail, frequent lightning and a small chance for tornadoes. This weather pattern will stay with us for Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning.
Posted by Patrick Crawford at 6:16 AM
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A WET START...
Check out the sharp trough of Low Pressure over the western half of the states. This feature will be quite the rain maker for us. Moisture is streaming in off the Pacific and as the system moves eastward, it will tap into the Gulf. Some of the jetstream energy plowing into the west coast of Canada will choose the path of least resistance, continuing on an easterly track across the northern tier of the states. This will slow the movement of the trough and allow several disturbances to train through our area.
By Monday evening, the first in a series of waves of low pressure, promises to develop showers and thunderstorms across our entire area. Initially, isolated cells have the potential to be severe, producing large hail, gusty winds and perhaps an isolated tornado. The greatest tornadic threat looks to remain just to our south, though we'll be watching all storms closely for this possibility at the onset of the event. A some-what stationary frontal boundary within the jetstream flow will channel disturbances over the same area through Tuesday night, producing flooding rain. Some model data suggests three inch totals, by Wednesday morning and amounts much higher are possible. As with any heavy rain event, please use caution while traveling and do not try to cross flooded creeks, streams, or roads. Just a foot and a half of swiftly moving water can displace your car, SUV or truck, floating it away like a boat without oars, a propeller or rudder!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 9:45 PM
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SOUTHEAST TORNADO OUTBREAK
Posted by Ted Zarras at 8:20 PM
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Storm Pics (March 14, 2008)
more pics can be seen - HERE
Posted by Brian Emfinger at 6:22 AM
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1:30AM Update
These shots are looking northwards of Alma, as the leading edge of a bow echo passed through. This feature which is over NE OK in the radar image from the last blog entry, raced eastward through AR, north of I-40 at some 40 to 50 mph. Tune in tomorrow at 6:00 and 10:00PM for some impressive shots of a shelf cloud along the leading edge of the bow.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 11:52 PM
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10:40PM Update
Within the next hour and a half, damaging winds area threat across NE OK and NW AR. A bowing segment of thunderstorms continues to strengthen and race across our northern area. On the southern side and northern side due to increased wind shear, there is possibility of a small tornado. At the center of the bow, strong straight line winds in upwards of 70 to 80 mph are possible. Please tune in to 4029 on-air for more information.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 8:38 PM
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9:30PM Update
Moisture convergence maps are a great place to look for where convection will initiate. Throughout the past few hours moisture has been collecting along the warm front to our south and very intense thunderstorms have fired. Check out the cluster of storms from the still radar shot. Most of these thunderstorms have prompted tornado warnings. We're expecting some filling in between this activity and the storms that are in the Tulsa area throughout the next three hours.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 6:33 PM
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