The glasses will be raised, resolutions will be made, and the lyrics to Auld Lang Synge will be butchered and slurred, but if your planning another typical New Year's Eve, you may want to plan on some changing weather. An arctic cold front's on the way just in time for 2008. For the record, I swear Dick Clark is like 100 years old!



Look at the monster ridge building across the Pacific Northwest by New Year's Eve. More jetstream energy on the east side of the ridge will send the cold air across Canada south throughout the southern plains.




850 mb temperatures are forecast to drop between -12 to -13 degrees Celsius. The cold air advection will give us highs in the 30s, and lows in the teens for Tuesday and Wednesday. Happy 2008!

A wintry mix is still possible across NE OK and NW AR by Friday morning; however, the track of the upper level low looks to stay well to our north, keeping the heavy snow totals across Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa.

Upper elevations across NW AR above 1500 feet could see a dusting to an inch, but most of that will occur on grassy surfaces.

The air aloft will be too warm across the River Valley, so we're just looking for a cold light rain for Friday morning. Toward the afternoon, some flurries will be possible as the system departs to the NE.

Here is the very latest weather update concerning the upper level low that will move through the area late tonight and early tomorrow morning. This is our "PRECISIONCAST" weather model for 6:00 am Friday morning. Notice that all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas has a very good chance of waking up with either rain or a wintry mix. Right now, it looks like south of I-40 will be mostly rain chances. North of I-40 looks to be where the freezing line will be, in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This is the part of the system where the rain will try to turn over to snow. It's represented by the pink shading you see on the image. This is where sleet could possibly take place, but I am going to hold off on the chance of freezing rain in the forecast for right now. In order to get freezing rain, you need warm air aloft and freezing temperatures at the surface. We are forecasting morning lows to be above freezing for the entire viewing region and our air looks to be cold aloft. The heavier snow accumulations will be well to the north. "Snow Advisories" have been issued for all Oklahoma counties along the Kansas border. The good news about having temperatures above the freezing mark (32°F/0°C) at the ground level is that it should prevent snow accumulation on roads and bridges. Keep checking back to 4029tv.com and our weather blog for the latest weather information.

Photo Taken by Brenda Cunningham from Mena, AR.

An upper level wave of low pressure moved across SE OK and SW AR today, creating accumulating snowfall in the upper elevations of SW AR. Most locations above 1500 feet received the snow as the wave moved overhead. The key to the snow was the cold core of temperatures aloft. The path of the wave really dictated where the snow fell opposed to rain.



This photo shows the snow accumulating just north of Ozark around 1650 feet. That same snow turned back to rain around 1300 feet. What a difference in just a few hundred feet!


Photo Taken by 40/29 Storm Chaser Brian Emfinger north of Ozark, AR.

Merry Christmas to all of you! What a beautiful day with highs well into the 50's. Several waves of low pressure look to knock down temperatures over the upcoming week, but nothing will compare to a monster trough that's forecast to ring in 2008.





Notice the plunge of 850 temperatures. We're talking -12 to -13 degrees Celsius at 5000 ft. The GFS does have a cold air bias, so that's something to take into consideration, but it has been showing this cold blast for several runs now. That provides confidence with the cold solution. This cold air mass would likely mean highs in the 30s and lows in the teens! We'll have more on the cold air as we gather new information.

This is the perfect time of year for the formation of Frost (or Ice) Flowers. The conditions for the formation of Frost Flowers are pretty simple: a unfrozen wet ground + below freezing temperatures at the surface. They form just above the ground surface around stems of plants, shrubs and even small trees. They are formed as sap and water in the stem of the plants expands (water expands when frozen), causing long, thin cracks to form along the length of the stem. Water is then drawn through these cracks via capillary action and freezes upon contact with the air. As more water is drawn through the cracks it pushes the thin ice layers further from the stem, causing a thin "petal" to form. In the case of woody plants and tree branches the freezing water is squeezed through the pores of the plant forming long thin strings of ice that look like hair or plastic. Frost Flowers are extremely delicate and the slightest touch destroys them. They are also know as: "ice flowers", "frost castles", "frost beard", "ice castles", "ice ribbons", or "ice blossoms". Frost Flowers can be found anywhere but the best places to see them are in river/stream valleys and in extremely shaded areas.

Here is a look at the areas across the United States that are celebrating a white Christmas. You notice how we don't fall into the white shading. Actually our weather for the holiday will be very unseasonable for the afternoon. After the very cold start, temperatures warm nicely with the abundance of sunshine and our winds out of the southeast. Some places might even be jealous of our weather. One place that might be envious is Glasgow, Montana. The afternoon temperatures there will only warm into the upper 20s. Our temperatures warm into the middle and upper 50s. Great weather to get out doors and enjoy all the new presents!

Ok, so I know that snow was first on most of your weather Christmas lists, however, Walmart and Best Buy are all out, so I'll have to look into my bag of goodies and see what else I can give you. My first wish is to be back scuba diving in Jamaica, well, I can't do that either, so how about we compromise with unseasonably mild temperatures? It's a Christmas miracle....



Look at the 850 mb flow on Christmas day. We're talking about a 850 wind out of the southwest, which is of course is a warming wind. For all the kids and adults trying out their new toys outside, it looks to be a real nice day. How about temperatures area wide climbing into the 50's!

Merry Christmas to all of you....Jamaica Christmas sounds pretty good?

A lot of folks will likely be shopping tomorrow afternoon, so all eyes remain on the forecast. The upper level system will hold the snow and ice just to our north for Saturday.





By the time the cold air moves into our area, the moisture will be winding down. Take a look at the 0Z NAM above. The bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain throughout your Saturday afternoon. A dusting of snow or so is possible Saturday evening across NE OK and NW AR; however, the accumulating snowfall will be held north of I-44 along the track of the 700 mb low.

Welcome to the winter! This is the season when the winds within the jetstream are at their strongest, and storm systems quickly move across the central plains. Over the next 7 days we will experience 3 fast moving systems, and that means 3 different weather scenarios! Let's detail each one...

WAVE #1: Saturday's Falling Temperatures



This shortwave trough looks very similar to last weekend's system, unfortyunatly, this trough will put an end to the mild temperatures we've been experiencing. This wave's a fast mover, providing a chance for rain showers throughout Saturday. Expect a good bet for rain, with a chance for a little light snow or sleet Saturday evening across NE OK and NW AR. No major accumulations are expected; however, by evening, temperatures will fall into the 30s!

WAVE #2: Dreaming of a White Christmas



This second wave is forecast to move our way by Christmas Eve. It's another fast mover, but there may be enough cold air to create the chance for light snow for Christmas morning. Moisture will be somewhat limited, butThat could be pretty interesting, ho ho ho.

WAVE #3: Developing Snow System?




The third wave is forecast to come through on Wednesday. This system's more impressive, and that could mean the potential for a developing winter storm. It's way too far off, but we'll be keeping a close eye on the pattern.

Here is a look at the travel weather for all of the travelers Friday. The areas that might have some flight delays will be the northern plains, the northeast and the southeast. There is actually some very pleasant weather for a large part of the nation from west coast to the mid-Atlantic states. Happy travels and stay safe!

How about these wonderful temperatures? We're getting an early Christmas gift as temperatures warm some 5 to 15 degrees above average. So why have we seen the pleasant temperatures? 3 main points to consider.......


1. Jetstream Positioning:

Patrick mentioned this in his blog below. We haven't seen any major troughs of low pressure blast through since Saturday, and that has allowed the cold air to stay north of our area. When the pattern is relatively zonal, it's becomes a winning situation if you like the unseasonably mild conditions. Now, there is a trough setting up out west as we speak; however, in the short term, we'll be influenced by a ridge to our West for Wednesday.

2. Warming Aloft:

Under the ridge, warm temperatures have moved north, creating the mild afternoons. Look at the forecasted 850 mb temperatures for Wednesday afternoon. With enough sunshine, these 850 mb temperatures translate into the upper 50s to the low to mid 60s!

3. Dry Atmosphere:

We're taking advantage of a relatively dry atmosphere. Dry air warms and cools quickly, so even though we have a cold start, the lower atmosphere will quickly warm throughout the afternoon.

The weather looks to be shaping up very nicely for us this week. The branch of the jetstream that brings in the cold air this time of year is located well to the north. As the cold steering winds stay to the north, we can expect mild weather to continue to filter into the area out of the west. This weather pattern will continue to give us mild weather all the way into Friday before that cold air arrives for the weekend. Remember, the official start of winter is Saturday morning at 12:08 AM, and we are talking about thunderstorm chances for Saturday morning. Don't you just love weather!

It's all about pattern recognition! This past weekend, winter made a quick visit providing snow and chilly temperatures, and that looks to be the case again for this coming weekend.



Here's the situation. Expect above average temperatures throughout the work week. Temperatures aloft will continue to warm, and with ample sunshine, surface temperatures are forecast to climb into the 50s and 60s. A few weak waves will pass overhead, but the dry atmosphere should keep us dry through Thursday.



A trough will develop by Thursday over the west coast, looking very similar to the trough we saw this past weekend. The trough will move through on Saturday, creating showers and storms Saturday morning, and then dropping temperatures throughout the day.

Fortunately, the cold air will move in just as the precipitations is moving out, so snowfall will be very limited. Flurries are in the forecast for Saturday evening north of I-40, but at this point no major accumulations are expected.

While most of our area was above freezing during last nights rain at least one place managed to see some fairly significent ice. Mount Magazine - the highest point in Arkansas had some spots with as much as 1 inch of ice accumulation. The ice began at about 2000 feet but only existed on the eastern half of the mountain. The visitor center had half a inch of ice accumulation but just 1/4 of a mile west towards the new lodge there was no ice at all. I think this had something to do with the easterly winds we experienced during the overnight advecting lower slightly drier air onto the eastern slopes. This slightly drier air allowed the temperatures to dip just below freezing through the effects of evaporation. The western slopes were protected from the wind and the slightly drier air and were thus able to remain just above freezing. The difference was probably only a few tenths of a degree but it was the difference between no ice and 1 inch of significent ice accumulation. Here are a couple more pictures showing 1 inch of ice accumulation and the ice line at around 2000 feet. More pictures can be seen at HERE.

We've taken a look at the 0Z data, and the trend is for slightly lower totals by Saturday afternoon per the GFS and the NAM models. Don't let the 2 to 4 inch totals throw you off. The best totals still look to be along the border of Missouri and Arkansas. Locations like Bella Vista could pick up over 3 inches of sleet and snow; however, Fayetteville, Springdale, and Rogers will most likely see around 2 inches of sleet and snow. Slightly higher totals around 3 inches are possible in Bentonville.

The tough part of this forecast will be the sleet accumulation. It's not just about the snow, but just how much sleet and snow will likely accumulate together?

The River Valley will see light snow develop through the afternoon, but totals will remain between a dusting to an inch mainly on the grassy surfaces.

We'll have more updates throughout Saturday!

No major changes in the forecast from the 12Z to the 18Z model data. Consistency is what you like to see when it comes to a winter weather forecast. We're anxious to see what the 0Z model data will provide.



By midnight, expect a cold rain with showers and storms moving throughout the area. As you can see above, temperatures aloft are too warm to support frozen precipitation for the evening hours; however, by dawn, that rain will mix with sleet north of I-40. The cold air will eventually work south, changing the River Valley to sleet by the late morning.

Afternoon snow showers are expected all across the area.

The new model runs have taken the surface low further north, keeping the heaviest of the snow forecast across NE OK, SW MO, and SE KS. The 250 mb jetstreak doesn't dive as far south as originally forecasted. This change aloft has moved the position of the surface low further north.

There is still plenty of uncertainty with this system, so we'll be watching each run and updating the map. Right now most of northwest Arkansas has the potential to pick up 1 inch of snow, with the upper elevations having the potential for higher totals from 2 to 3 inches.

Delaware county and McDonald county could see 3 to 4 inches of snow by Saturday afternoon. The River Valley, as always, still remains the location of the most uncertainty. The cold air may not work far enough south for a total changeover. Grassy surfaces may see a dusting to an inch by Saturday afternoon.

The National Weather Service has issued a "Winter Storm Watch" for Delaware county from Friday evening through Saturday morning. A "Winter Storm Watch" means that heavy snow is expected in the watch area during the next 24 to 48 hours. We are forecasting snowfall totals from 3-4" for north Delaware county and northwest McDonald county in southwest Missouri. Keep on checking the 4029 weather blog for constant updates as this system approaches.

Here is a look at the forecast track for our next weather maker. It's an upper level low that will sweep in out of the Pacific Northwest. It will be over central Texas by Friday. Then Friday night and Saturday morning is when it will be passing over us. First it will start out as rain and then change over to snow through the overnight into Saturday morning. The good news is that it will not be giving us snow chances all weekend, as it moves over the mid-Atlantic states Sunday. Keep checking the 4029 weather blog for constant updates on the winter weather system including updated tracks and snow fall totals.

This forecast map is based on the 12Z data from this morning. Of course, we will be tweaking it over the next couple of days, but these totals reflect the current information. There were two major differences between the GFS and the NAM; the timing of the event, and the amount of QPF.

I blended the QPF to provide a compromise between the models. I explained the timing issue in my blog below. The NAM is traditionally 6 hours too slow, so I like the GFS' timing with the event. This system will depart by Saturday afternoon, leaving the brunt of the snow for early Saturday morning.

We will look forward to the 0z data.

The 12z information has come out, and the models continue to be very wet for the weekend. The biggest difference is the timing of the precipitation; however, we have noticed that the NAM is notorious for being 6 hours too slow.





Notice the timing of the picture above. This is the NAM's output for Saturday at Noon. I feel the NAM is 6 hours too slow, so if that hypothesis is true, then the NAM and the GFS would line up in their timing, and we're talking about accumulating snowfall potential for early Saturday morning.




The picture above depicts the trough digging out across the southwest. More energy on the west side of the trough will lead to an overall deepening; moreover, if you want snow, then you'll want a deeper trough. A deeper trough will trigger the surface low to move across Texas and continue moving south of our area dragging more cold air across the area.

Precipitation will start to develop on Friday night. Rain will most likely mix with sleet and snow for Friday evening. After the onset of precipitation, evaporational cooling will drop temperatures down, and change the sleet over to snow.

The potential for 4 to 6 inches of snow across NE OK and NW AR is very real. As always, more uncertainty exists across the River Valley with some warm air aloft; however, even the River Valley will have a shot of several inches of snowfall by Saturday.

I will provide a precipitation forecast map tonight at 5,6, and 10. More updates to come.

The weather pattern continues to get very interesting toward the end of this week. We're finally going to see a break from the wet weather by Thursday afternoon; however, a fast moving wave of low pressure will quickly take over by the weekend, creating a winter weather possibility late Friday night.



The map above shows 250 mb winds for Friday night. The strong jetstreak colored in purple will create an area of low pressure at the surface across southern Texas Friday night. Moisture will stream north from the gulf ahead of the low, and in addition to the moisture, the surface low will also pull in cold air from the north.




Look at the cold air above. This is the GFS' prediction by midnight Friday. This cold air has the potential to change the rain over to snow late Friday night. Obviously, we're still several days out, but if this scenario comes true, northwest Arkansas could receive several inches of snowfall. Forecasted QPF amounts would translate into 2 to 4 inches of snow. This is very early, and I want to see more conformation from the NAM before I predict totals. The River valley could also see accumulations, but it will depend on the cold air, so stay tuned!

Rain chances look to be in our weather forecast over the next several days. A large trough located in the southwest U.S. will continue to stream pieces of energy our way. The jet stream, also known as a storm track, sets up right over top of us into Thursday morning. With this set up we are going to have lots of warm air moisture build out of the south and cold air push in out of the north. Our location again is helping keep these systems in the liquid form, unlike the freezing rain that was experienced in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early Monday morning.