The 12z information has come out, and the models continue to be very wet for the weekend. The biggest difference is the timing of the precipitation; however, we have noticed that the NAM is notorious for being 6 hours too slow.





Notice the timing of the picture above. This is the NAM's output for Saturday at Noon. I feel the NAM is 6 hours too slow, so if that hypothesis is true, then the NAM and the GFS would line up in their timing, and we're talking about accumulating snowfall potential for early Saturday morning.




The picture above depicts the trough digging out across the southwest. More energy on the west side of the trough will lead to an overall deepening; moreover, if you want snow, then you'll want a deeper trough. A deeper trough will trigger the surface low to move across Texas and continue moving south of our area dragging more cold air across the area.

Precipitation will start to develop on Friday night. Rain will most likely mix with sleet and snow for Friday evening. After the onset of precipitation, evaporational cooling will drop temperatures down, and change the sleet over to snow.

The potential for 4 to 6 inches of snow across NE OK and NW AR is very real. As always, more uncertainty exists across the River Valley with some warm air aloft; however, even the River Valley will have a shot of several inches of snowfall by Saturday.

I will provide a precipitation forecast map tonight at 5,6, and 10. More updates to come.