For those of you wondering what happened to the 7 to 8 inch snow totals, look no further than the picture above! A massive dry slot fed into this system, and really shut off the precipitation across the River Valley and portions of NW AR during the morning and early afternoon, eliminating the potential for major snow accumulations.

The ETA model didn't pick up on the dry air; the GFS did, and that's why we sided with that particular solution. The GFS has been more consistent over the last month with the larger winter systems, so we put our trust in that model. Sometimes forecasting comes down to one decision: what model do I go with?

Notice Benton, Delaware, and McDonald counties weren’t influenced by the dry slot, so more totals were reported in those spots. Those locations also had temperatures in the low levels of the atmosphere that supported snow.

Here are some of the totals from our winter storm. The highest totals occurred across Benton and Carroll counties, with slightly lower amounts throughout the rest of NW AR. Southwest Missouri also saw several inches of snow throughout McDonald County; the counties furthest north weren't impacted by the massive dry slot that occurred during the morning. The GFS had this pegged yesterday, and we believed that would be the model of choice, and that's what we based our forecasted totals on.

The River Valley turned over to snow around 4:30 this afternoon, and with the luxury of large wet flakes, picked up between 1 and 2 inches of snow. All in all we were very happy with the way the forecast turned out.

Enjoy the snow everybody!

The heavy snow has cleared the majority of NE OK and NW AR. Light snow is still expected across Washington and Madison counties through 6:30 p.m. Most of the snow through 7 p.m. will be confined across the Arkansas I-40 corridor; however, light snow flurries can't be ruled out this evening. Travel may become an issue tonight as the roads freeze. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the lower 20s, so use caution.

Heavy snow continues to fall across the River Valley. The snow has been very wet, and large flakes have been reported all across the area. These large flakes are accumulating quickly, so don't be surprised to see 1 to 2 inches of snow when the snow ends. We'll expect the heavy snow to taper off to flurries around 6:30. Fortunately, the temperatures are sitting around 33 degrees, so the roads are remaining relatively clear.

Overnight lows will fall into the 20's, so a freeze will be expected overnight.

Note the circulation of the surface Low as depicted from the wind barbs. The center is now just south of the River Valley over SE OK. As more cold air continues to funnel into our area most locations will see precipitation on the frozen side of the spectrum.

Road conditions will be going downhill as we move into the overnight period! Slush and wet roadways will turn to ice and present a great threat to travel. Please remember to give yourself at least a "four second" distance between yourself and the car in front of you. Anticipate slick road conditions by giving yourself ample room to stop.

Get the latest time-table on this late January snow storm on the 5 and 6 pm shows.

What an active weather day it has been across the entire area. From rain and snow to sleet and hail we have had it all. I actually heard a few rumbles of thunder near Ozark as the heaviest sleet moved through earlier this morning. Here are a few pictures from Northern Franklin county where most places have at least half a inch of total accumulation from freezing rain, sleet, and snow (as of mid-afternoon).

Snow pellets from earlier this morning on top of sleet and freezing rain













I am sure I am not the only one to notice how worked up the birds were today. This Northern Flicker was just about psychotic looking in its continuous quest to find food before the ground was covered with ice.














About .20 of freezing rain accumulation on telephone lines from early morning freezing rain and freezing drizzle during the afternoon













Here is what the county roads look like in Northern Franklin county. The combination of sleet and freezing rain/drizzle has made many secondary/county roads across the Ozarks pretty slick.













More pictures - HERE

The dry slot that pushed throughout the area has moved east; more snow will be possible throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening, especially north of I-40.

Temperatures aloft are starting to cool as the back edge of the low moves through, which will turn the rain/drizzle back over to sleet and snow. Travel conditions across NW AR will continue to deteriorate this evening. Northern Benton, Carroll, and Delaware counties have received in upwards of 3 to 4 inches of snow already, and an additional 2 inches will be possible across northwest Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma through the evening.

We'll expect a dusting to an inch of snow across the River Valley this afternoon. Totals will not be as high due to some of the warm air aloft that has kept the precipitation liquid throughout the morning.

The snow should taper off to flurries around 10 p.m. tonight.

FROM: AMANDA ALLEY, PEA RIDGE









FROM: JOHN HARRIS, BERRYVILLE








FROM: MELISA CROSSLAND, BELLA VISTA









FROM: TAMI VITALI, CLOSE TO BEAVER DAM









FROM: JASON TIDWELL, CENTERTON

Here is an update on the possible snowfall accumulation across the region. 4-6 inches of snowfall accumulation in far NE OK/NW AR/SW MO. 3-5 inches in the rest of NE OK/ NW AR. 1-3 inches in the River Valley. Keep it tuned to 4029 TV for the latest weather information. Also, we will keep you updated on business and school closing on 4029tv.com and 4029!

Winter weather has already started to take place across the area this morning. Most of the viewing region is currently above freezing, but some areas in NW Arkansas are right at the freezing mark and are getting some sleet and even some light snow. The main energy with this system has not arrived yet and it looks like this upper level low is going to track further south than what was anticipated. That means snow totals could be higher. I will have our updated snowfall forecast coming up in a few minutes.

The latest computer model runs have continued to paint the heaviest snow totals across NE OK and NW AR for this particular event. The NAM is very robust with snow totals; however, the GFS is still holding more of a lighter scenario, so I'm taking the middle of the road at this point. Back toward I-44 there is the potential for
6+ inches of snow. Northern Benton and Delaware counties will likely see the highest totals in our area due to their proximity to the cold air.

If this system pulls a little further south, the potentail for higher totals will exist, especially across the River Valley. Travel throughout Thursday afternoon may become dangerous with the snow on the roadways. We'll keep you posted.

Here are the most recent weather models for the possible snow accumulation across the area. The GFS and NAM models differ. The first picture you see on the screen is the NAM weather model forecast for 48 hours out. You can see the snow chances for NE OK, NW AR and SW MO. The next weather model that you see is the GFS forecast for 48 hours out. This weather model is showing a little bit higher precipitation chances and the precipitation covering a larger area. The one weather variable that these weather models are forecasting will be the snow for NE OK, NW AR and SW MO. Keep checking the 4029 weather blog, the most detailed weather blog in the area, for all the latest weather information. Also, watch Chief Meteorologist Drew Michaels' weather forecast tonight at 5, 6, and 10pm. He will have the very latest weather information.

Another fast moving system is on the way for Thursday. There is one significant model difference between the GFS and the NAM; the GFS is wanting to pull the dry slot through, while the NAM holds the precipitation throughout Thursday. The NAM also takes the low further south.

The NAM's solution has the greatest potential for heavy snowfall, especially across NE OK and NW AR. If you believe the NAM's depiction, then 5 to 6 inches would be possible north of I-40, but I'm going more conservative at this point.



The 700 mb low can be a great tracking device for the heavy snowfall. The GFS has the 700 low move south out of Kansas just clipping NW AR and SE MO, as you can see by the picture above. The GFS has done well with the last couple of systems, so I'm starting to lean more toward that solution. Look for rain to start out Thursday, quickly changing over to snow by late Thursday morning. The best snow accumulations look to remain across Benton, Delaware, and McDonald counties.

A large fire is ongoing at Fort Chaffee and you can actually see the smoke plume on radar. The radar echo of the fire stretches from near Barling all the way past Paris and Clarksville and into Western Pope County. Several barracks are on fire and with the strong winds the fire fighters are having a tough time controlling the fire. 40/29 will have much more about this fire this afternoon and tonight on the 5, 6, and 10pm news and as always you can check 4029tv.com for the latest updates.

The winds are very strong today and they are so strong that the National Weather Service has issued a "WIND ADVISORY" for the viewing region. The advisory will be in effect until 6 PM Tuesday evening. A "WIND ADVISORY" means that winds could be gusting near 40 mph. Winds that strong will make driving very difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. The strong winds will be caused by a strong change in temperature change across the area thanks to a cold front moving through out of the northwest. Temperatures this morning were in the 60s, but by this afternoon we will cool into the 30s! Hold on tight and stay warm.

image courtesy of www.wunderground.com ®

Here is the look at the forecast for Thursday at noon. Wherever you see the purple shading, that is were precipitation possibilities will be taking place. The colored lines that encompass the screen are critical thickness lines. These thickness lines are used to forecast winter weather. They help us to determine if the precipitation will be snow, rain, sleet or freezing rain. Right now we are looking at snow for NE OK and NW AR and more of a wintry mix the further south you go. We will have an updated forecast on how much snow accumulation we are forecasting tonight at 5 PM during Drew Michaels' weathercast, so make sure you tune in for that!

I took advantage of the warmer weather to do some frozen waterfall hunting in the Ozarks. I saw plenty but this one pictured below was the biggest and tallest I could find (about 5 miles southeast of Pettigrew in southern Madison County).












You can see a few more pics - HERE

There certainly has been plenty of time for these frozen waterfalls to get quite big. Some of the higher elevations of the Ozarks and Ouachita's had been below freezing since the night of January 18th. Thats about six full days below freezing.

We also had another round of freezing fog and low clouds this morning across much of Eastern Oklahoma the River Valley. The low clouds and fog didn't clear out in Fort Smith until around noon. This prevented the temperatures from warming as much there. The highs in Northwest Arkansas (mid 60's) were nearly 10 degrees higher than Fort Smith (mid 50's).

As Drew expertly predicted yesterday (see next post below) , nearly everyone awoke this morning to fog, drizzle, or low clouds. At my house (1600 ft - 7 miles NE of Ozark) we had freezing drizzle most of the morning. After nearly a full night of the freezing drizzle the trees were actually weighed down but it provided a nice picture.












I soon checked the visible satellite image to see the extent of the clouds and I noticed a few mountains peaking above the clouds including Mount Magazine and within 5 minutes my wife and I were out the door hoping we would make it to the mountain before the clouds burned off.














The entire drive to the mountain was cloudy but once we got to the mountain and passed above 2000 feet we suddenly burst out into clear blue sky. The temperature was also about 10 degrees warmer at the top than at the bottom! In the clouds and fog there was still ice on the trees and even a bit of slush on the road (temps were just above freezing at that point) but once we were in the clear at the top most of the ice had vanished and temperatures were well into the 40s.













You can see many more pictures on my website - HERE.

We have an interesting forecast dilemma I wanted to share with you tonight. We're looking at a clear sky develop across central Oklahoma as dry air moves east; however, warm air is moving overhead, and we've had precipitation lead to a damp ground, so will our area actually clear overnight?

Here's the RUC's analysis of the relative humidity at 925 mb, or roughly 2,000 feet at 3 a.m. Notice the high RH values move east of our area, indicating the low clouds moving out.



The problem with this solution is the warm air moving in aloft. Here is a sounding for 6 a.m. Saturday morning. Notice how the red line jogs out to the right; this is an indication of an inversion, or warmer air overriding colder air at the surface. The warm air aloft acts like a lid, which tends to hold the moisture and the low clouds from eroding.

My thought is that we will see the clouds overnight, and then expect a clearing late tomorrow morning.

If the above model sounding pans out, then it will be looking rather white in Fort Smith by noon. The diagram above is a vertical depiction of the atmosphere for 12:00 noon tomorrow. The red line is the temperature profile and the dashed line is the dewpoint. When the two are matched up, the atmosphere is saturated. On this chart, the atmosphere is near saturated to the tropopause and temperature-wise, at or ever so slightly below freezing. There's a thin layer from 750mb to 850mb that hugs the 0 c isotherm. Sleet might be another likely scenario should this pan out. This is from the GFS. Interestingly, the NAM regional model is very dry with the precipitation.



This map highlights precipitation from the UKMET Global forecasting model. This along with GFS has shown consistency in bringing in precipitation to our area. Both global models seem to have a better handle on the amount of moisture in our West Southwesterly flow. Liquid equivalent amounts have been on the light side thus far (less than 1/10 of an inch), but consistency over time and between both models has been good.

Timing wise, a late morning start to late evening finish is still on track. Heaviest precipitation looks to fall once again, as we saw on Monday, to the south of the Bobby Hopper tunnel with higher terrain in SE OK and SW AR standing a good chance at measurable snow.

Remember to monitor the forecast as well as changing road conditions. Just the thinnest covering of ice could wreck more than your day! Be sure to get the latest from Drew tonight at 5, 6 and 10 pm.

Like clock work, we're looking at another potential for winter weather; unlike Monday, this event looks to kick off the weekend. An arctic front is moving in for tonight: dropping temperatures, and setting the stage for freezing rain on Friday.

Here's the situation. That cold shallow air will hang around through Friday. With an increased cloud cover on Friday, temperatures should remain in the lower 30's; a very similar pattern we saw this past Monday.

A 500 wave of low pressure will create the lift needed for precipitation to develop for Friday afternoon. The lift per the GFS is pretty impressive. Take a look at the wave below.




Temperatures aloft at 850 mb will warm, creating a layer for precipitation to fall as rain. Once that rain falls toward the surface, any object that's at 32 degrees or below will be fair game for freezing rain within the shallow cold layer.





The GFS is more robust with the precipitation compared to the ETA; however, with the given lift created from the 500 mb wave, drizzle could also be a concern, which also has the potential to freeze.



We think the River Valley and south will have the best chance to see the Freezing rain. Temperatures will likely stay in the low 30s for Friday, so if the moisture is present, we're looking at more ice potential. Stay tuned.

I received an e-mail today from a viewer who was wondering how the month of January has been so far; he remembered that the monthly outlook called for above average temperatures, so he wanted to see how we've done so far.

When it comes to the weather, I have to remind everybody that we all have a short term memory. It's been cold lately, so the month has seemed cold, but that's not the case. Just remember, from January 5th through the 8th we had a stretch of 60 and 70 degree weather!

Here are the averages for the month of January.




So far this month Northwest Arkansas has averaged a high of 48 with a low of 26. The River Valley has averaged a high of 52 with an average low of 30. We're hanging on above average, but we'll have to wait and see how the next 9 days will turn out.

Here is a look at the RADAR from 5:01 this morning. Notice how the moisture has moved east of the viewing area. We are still getting reports of light drizzle across the area. This drizzle as it falls will freeze when it hits the surface, we call this event freezing drizzle. A cold front is moving through the area as I write this weather blog and that will drop our temperatures below freezing across the entire viewing area. That will result in a possible re-freeze of all the wet surfaces across the region. Please be extra cautious on the roads and interstates for the morning hours. Keep it tuned to 4029tv.com and 40/29 TV for all your weather updates. If you are curious if your business or school is closed today, we have the answer. We are constantly updating all the closings on 4029tv.com and 40/29 TV.

These pictures were taken by Brian Emfinger north of Ozark in Franklin county. This is a great representation of the glaze that freezing rain creates. It's not the thickness that presents a problem; it's just extremely slick and hazardous.

The steady and heavier precipitation has moved east, so patchy areas of drizzle will be the rule overnight; however, that drizzle will still freeze and create slick spots overnight. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s and lower 30s overnight.

No major changes. Roads remain slick and hazardous across the River Valley where a tenth of an inch of rainfall has been reported since the late afternoon. Roads have become slick and hazardous across Sebastian, Sequoyah, Crawford, and Washington counties; moreover, numerous accidents have been reported, so stay off the roads.

I-540 is a virtual parking lot from I-40 to the Bobby Hopper tunnel due to an accident. Police have basically shut it down, so don't try to travel north or south tonight.

Fayetteville's temperature has dropped to 32 degrees, so expect icing to occur this evening across all of Washington county.

Temperatures continue to fall across the area. A pocket of warm air aloft is creating patchy areas of freezing rain throughout the River Valley. Numerous accidents are being reported from Sallisaw to Fort Smith. Many accidents are also being reported north from Alma toward Mountainburg where the temperature is at 32 degrees.

Patchy areas of freezing rain are being reported in Washington county, especially south of the Fayetteville area. Sleet and Freezing rain is possible across NW AR this evening with falling temperatures into the lower 30s.

Temperatures from Ft Smith to Sallisaw have dropped below freezing as of 5 p.m.; patchy areas of freezing rain are being reported, and will continue throughout the evening hours. Total ice accumulations up to .25" may accumulate across the River Valley for tonight. Roads will likely become slick and dangerous, so be careful especially over bridges and overpasses.

Northwest Arkansas' temperatures remain above freezing, so only light ice accumulations are expected. Most of the evening precipitation will remain as sleet and light rain. The largest freezing rain threat will remain along the I-40 corridor.

Here is the latest forecast from our "PRECISIONCAST" weather model. We are looking at rain showers this evening, turning over to a wintry mess Tuesday morning. Freezing rain is a major concern for Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A glazing to maybe a quarter of an inch could be possible in some areas. That means driving conditions will be very dangerous. Make sure you watch Chief Meteorologist Drew Michaels tonight at 5,6 and 10 pm for the latest updated weather information. Then as you are starting your morning make sure you tune in to "Sunrise" right here on 40/29 TV starting at 5 am. If anything severe does break out we will cut into programming to keep you advised. Plus, keep on checking the best weather blog in the area for the latest weather updates!