Another fast moving system is on the way for Thursday. There is one significant model difference between the GFS and the NAM; the GFS is wanting to pull the dry slot through, while the NAM holds the precipitation throughout Thursday. The NAM also takes the low further south.

The NAM's solution has the greatest potential for heavy snowfall, especially across NE OK and NW AR. If you believe the NAM's depiction, then 5 to 6 inches would be possible north of I-40, but I'm going more conservative at this point.



The 700 mb low can be a great tracking device for the heavy snowfall. The GFS has the 700 low move south out of Kansas just clipping NW AR and SE MO, as you can see by the picture above. The GFS has done well with the last couple of systems, so I'm starting to lean more toward that solution. Look for rain to start out Thursday, quickly changing over to snow by late Thursday morning. The best snow accumulations look to remain across Benton, Delaware, and McDonald counties.