Saturday, March 31, 2007
THE EARTH AT NIGHT
Check out this picture of the earth at night. It was compiled in 2002 and is made up of hundreds of images, all of which were taken by Defense Meteorological Satellites (DMS). The DMS program was launched in the 1960 by the US Air Force to study the environment from an altitude of 500 miles.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 8:41 PM
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Friday, March 30, 2007
FRIDAY'S FOLLY
For about the past two days a few of the long range forecasting models have been hinting at a cool down for the end of next week. This much is plausible. So far, this months average high temps have been warm, with Fort Smith averaging 72.2º and Fayetteville averaging 68.9º. These figures are both 8.2º and 9.9º degrees above monthly averages, respectively.
The above map, which is a model forecast for late Easter night shows not only cold air being in place but, low and behold, there’s a storm too! A few snow flakes could be flying if (and that is a huge “if”) things panned out as the map is showing. *It should be stated that 9-10 days out is what we like to call "fantasy land" with computer model data, though any type of snow in April, whether cloud or computer generated, is amusing enough and certainly worthy to be this week’s FRIDAY’S FOLLY blog entry.
FYI: Could we actually see some winter precipitation in April? Climatologically the latest measurable snow event happened on April 15th where just under an inch fell.
The above map, which is a model forecast for late Easter night shows not only cold air being in place but, low and behold, there’s a storm too! A few snow flakes could be flying if (and that is a huge “if”) things panned out as the map is showing. *It should be stated that 9-10 days out is what we like to call "fantasy land" with computer model data, though any type of snow in April, whether cloud or computer generated, is amusing enough and certainly worthy to be this week’s FRIDAY’S FOLLY blog entry.
FYI: Could we actually see some winter precipitation in April? Climatologically the latest measurable snow event happened on April 15th where just under an inch fell.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 5:01 PM
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Thursday, March 29, 2007
The Severe Weather Threat Has Ended......
Showers and storms have diminished in intensity across northern Texas, and we don't anticipate any more severe weather for tonight. A few rumbles of thunder along with scattered showers remain in the forecast, mainly across eastern Oklahoma. The complex of storms has been cutoff from the warm humid air, so it will likely rain itself out over the next couple of hours.
Outflow boundaries from this complex may serve as a focus for more storms by Friday afternoon. We'll watch those storms carefully, especially for large hail and gusty winds.
Heavy rain and storms are expected to redevelop across our area late Friday night into Saturday morning. This pesky storm system will move to our east by Sunday.
Outflow boundaries from this complex may serve as a focus for more storms by Friday afternoon. We'll watch those storms carefully, especially for large hail and gusty winds.
Heavy rain and storms are expected to redevelop across our area late Friday night into Saturday morning. This pesky storm system will move to our east by Sunday.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 9:01 PM
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*9:30 UPDATE
The wind field aloft is becoming interesting. For most of the day, winds from the surface up through 500mb (18,000’) have been out of the due south. Subsequently, thunderstorm activity has remained in a convergent zone through central TX and OK. Winds are now displaying a slight kick to the east. Storms that were pushing through Dallas some two hours ago have been moving to the NNE at some 25 to 30 mph.
We’re just now starting to pick up on some lightning over Stigler and Sallisaw, OK. These storms are likely being kicked up by outflow winds from storms to the west. At this point it’s a good bet that the greater Fort Smith area will at least get wet. We’re continuing to monitor developments for severe weather though the strongest storms remain south of the latest batch of convection in an area that is untapped. If this activity holds together it will likely pass by to the south of the River Valley.
We are also now under a Flood Watch which is in effect through Saturday. A training effect of thunderstorms may produce localized flash flooding with amounts as a high as 2-4” of rain in our aqrea. Not to sound like a broken record but, please remember that if in doubt about the depth of a covered road, it’s best to turn around and find another route. Just a foot and a half of swiftly moving water can float your car and just half a foot can knock a person down. Be smart and be safe!
We’re just now starting to pick up on some lightning over Stigler and Sallisaw, OK. These storms are likely being kicked up by outflow winds from storms to the west. At this point it’s a good bet that the greater Fort Smith area will at least get wet. We’re continuing to monitor developments for severe weather though the strongest storms remain south of the latest batch of convection in an area that is untapped. If this activity holds together it will likely pass by to the south of the River Valley.
We are also now under a Flood Watch which is in effect through Saturday. A training effect of thunderstorms may produce localized flash flooding with amounts as a high as 2-4” of rain in our aqrea. Not to sound like a broken record but, please remember that if in doubt about the depth of a covered road, it’s best to turn around and find another route. Just a foot and a half of swiftly moving water can float your car and just half a foot can knock a person down. Be smart and be safe!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 7:36 PM
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Newly Issued Tornado Watch:
The Storm Prediction Center has issued A Tornado watch which will extend through 1:00 AM Friday morning. This encompasses most of our counties in Eastern Oklahoma and stretches further to the south and west.
Most of the activity today has been confined to central Oklahoma and Texas. The parent Low pressure system has moved very little today as it is near vertically stacked in the atmosphere, meaning that from the surface to about 40,000 feet there is one broad scale circulation. Waves of low pressure have been spiraling around this Low. A wave that’s now pushing into the Dallas area looks to provide the necessary lift to initiate storms to a rather unstable atmosphere later tonight across the area affected by the watch.
Timing wise for our area, the later part of tonight into the early morning looks to be the most favorable for the threat of severe weather. Imbedded thunderstorms may also contain high wind gusts as well as hail. We’ll be tracking all developments throughout the entire event and will be making cut-ins as deemed necessary.
Most of the activity today has been confined to central Oklahoma and Texas. The parent Low pressure system has moved very little today as it is near vertically stacked in the atmosphere, meaning that from the surface to about 40,000 feet there is one broad scale circulation. Waves of low pressure have been spiraling around this Low. A wave that’s now pushing into the Dallas area looks to provide the necessary lift to initiate storms to a rather unstable atmosphere later tonight across the area affected by the watch.
Timing wise for our area, the later part of tonight into the early morning looks to be the most favorable for the threat of severe weather. Imbedded thunderstorms may also contain high wind gusts as well as hail. We’ll be tracking all developments throughout the entire event and will be making cut-ins as deemed necessary.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 5:16 PM
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Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Classic Dryline Storms Tonight
All was quiet on the western front early this afternoon. Slowly, the clouds started to break, and the instability started to increase ahead of the dryline. The cap was still in place during the early afternoon, holding off convection until around 4:00 p.m. Surface heating and convergence along the dryline wasn't enough to break the cap; however, a shortwave rotating around the upper level low helped to break the CAP late this afternoon. Convective initiation started near Plainview Texas, and the storms quickly moved north into Kansas and Nebraska.
Storm movement along the dryline was from the south to the north along the eastern side of the upper level low. The low isn't moving very quickly east, but a kicker system across the Pacific northwest will slowly help to drive the low toward our area.
Look for Thursday as a whole to be quiet, but storms across central Oklahoma will move our way by Thursday night. Some of those storms may contain large hail and gusty winds. If we destabilize during the afternoon, expect a moisture rich environment for the storms to thrive on. The CAP will likely be an issue for us throughout the day on Thursday, but a shortwave at 500 mb could help crack the CAP if we have enough surface heating during the afternoon. We'll watch everything closely for you!
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:20 PM
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Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Severe Storms for Thursday?
Our next big weather maker is moving across the southwest, however, a warm southwesterly flow aloft will dominate our weather pattern for Wednesday afternoon. Look for highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s thanks to warm 850mb temps. So will this trough yield any severe weather?
Computer model guidance suggests that the dry line will fire late Wednesday afternoon and evening across western Oklahoma, but those storms should remain west of our area for Wednesday night.
The dry line is forecast to set up across central Oklahoma during the day on Thursday, setting the stage for showers and storms to roll our way by Thursday evening. Temperatures will likely warm throughout the day on Thursday, but more than likely we'll have a pretty stout CAP in place. A couple of ingredients will be needed to fire severe storms...
1. Extensive Surface Heating for Destabilization
2. Convergence along the dryline
3. An Upper level Wave to Help Bust the CAP
If the CAP can erode, supercell storms will have a chance to develop and roll our way. Wind shear isn't very impressive, so the tornado threat will remain low, but large hail and damaging winds can't be ruled out especially if we have a lot of sunshine!
Computer model guidance suggests that the dry line will fire late Wednesday afternoon and evening across western Oklahoma, but those storms should remain west of our area for Wednesday night.
The dry line is forecast to set up across central Oklahoma during the day on Thursday, setting the stage for showers and storms to roll our way by Thursday evening. Temperatures will likely warm throughout the day on Thursday, but more than likely we'll have a pretty stout CAP in place. A couple of ingredients will be needed to fire severe storms...
1. Extensive Surface Heating for Destabilization
2. Convergence along the dryline
3. An Upper level Wave to Help Bust the CAP
If the CAP can erode, supercell storms will have a chance to develop and roll our way. Wind shear isn't very impressive, so the tornado threat will remain low, but large hail and damaging winds can't be ruled out especially if we have a lot of sunshine!
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:17 PM
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Monday, March 26, 2007
Ring Around the Moon
I know many people have called and e-mailed about the ring around the moon. It was a glorious sight, with a fairly easy explanation.
Typically you see these optical displays when high cirrus clouds precede a storm system from the west. High cirrus clouds are composed of ice crystals, and they help refract the moon's light. This refraction causes the halo look around the moon. Since the ice crystals have a fairly uniform hexagonal shape, the moon ring is usually the same size.
Once a moon ring is spotted, weather folklore says that rain will be possible over the next few days. We'll have to see if this folklore is fact or fiction............
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:29 PM
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A DEVELOPING LA NINA
Over the winter there was an anomalous warming of the waters off the equatorial Pacific Ocean off the South American coast. This is referred to as El Nino conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather Service, declares the onset of an El Nino episode when the 3-month average sea-surface temperature departure exceeds 0.5oC in the east-central equatorial Pacific [between 5oN-5oS and 170oW-120oW].
As we head into spring the opposite conditions look to be developing; there is now anomalous cooling of the waters over the same region and this is referred to as La Nina conditions. One of the best correlations between weather events and an El Nino or La Nina pattern exists with Hurricanes.
La Nina produces easterly wind departures at upper levels of the atmosphere and westerly wind departures at lower levels, across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and tropical Atlantic. Over the eastern Pacific these wind patterns are in phase with those normally seen in the region, resulting in higher vertical wind shear. The eastern Pacific hurricane season is typically less active during La Niña because of the expanded area of high vertical wind shear.Across the tropical Atlantic these same wind patterns are opposite to those normally observed, and result in lower vertical wind shear. There tend to be more Atlantic hurricanes during La Niña because of this expanded area of low vertical wind shear.El Niño and La Niña also influence where the Atlantic hurricanes form. During El Niño fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes develop in the deep Tropics from African easterly waves. During La Niña more hurricanes form in the deep Tropics from African easterly waves. These systems have a much greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually threatening the U.S. and Caribbean Islands.
Last year early forecasts were for a severe hurricane season, this was made before El Nino conditions developed. This is now the most attributable factor, as to why last year was so non-eventful. Hurricane season starts in June.
As we head into spring the opposite conditions look to be developing; there is now anomalous cooling of the waters over the same region and this is referred to as La Nina conditions. One of the best correlations between weather events and an El Nino or La Nina pattern exists with Hurricanes.
La Nina produces easterly wind departures at upper levels of the atmosphere and westerly wind departures at lower levels, across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and tropical Atlantic. Over the eastern Pacific these wind patterns are in phase with those normally seen in the region, resulting in higher vertical wind shear. The eastern Pacific hurricane season is typically less active during La Niña because of the expanded area of high vertical wind shear.Across the tropical Atlantic these same wind patterns are opposite to those normally observed, and result in lower vertical wind shear. There tend to be more Atlantic hurricanes during La Niña because of this expanded area of low vertical wind shear.El Niño and La Niña also influence where the Atlantic hurricanes form. During El Niño fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes develop in the deep Tropics from African easterly waves. During La Niña more hurricanes form in the deep Tropics from African easterly waves. These systems have a much greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually threatening the U.S. and Caribbean Islands.
Last year early forecasts were for a severe hurricane season, this was made before El Nino conditions developed. This is now the most attributable factor, as to why last year was so non-eventful. Hurricane season starts in June.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 6:45 PM
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Sunday, March 25, 2007
OMNIPRESENT POLLEN & TWO CHANCES FOR RAIN
If you are suffering from the sneezing, the itchy eyes, the runny nose, the sinus pressure and the fatigue caused by the blooming season… you are not alone! Many, many people are at about wits end with the pollen. It has been a bad year so far. Pollen counts have been in ALERT status and with the absence of rain, relief has been hard to come by. But, this week as opposed to last is a little more promising in the rain department.
Today a few sprinkles popped up across the Ouachita Mountains, though many of us remained dry. This should change by tomorrow. We’re looking at a developing wave across Texas right now that may bring in as much as an inch of rain for a few lucky areas that get thunderstorms. This should provide widespread showers and thunderstorms across our entire area and pull out late Tuesday. A few localized heavy downpours are possible.
The bigger show for the week looks to affect us as early as late Wednesday in eastern OK. A trough, digging out west looks to carry a few systems into the continental US. The first will likely go well to the north of us but, a secondary low is slated to develop just east of the Rockies and pass through our area. It’s looking like it will have some Jet energy to work with and the wind profile may support some longer lived thunderstorms. We’re monitoring developments closely as it looks like we may have our next round of severe weather in a mere three to four days.
Today a few sprinkles popped up across the Ouachita Mountains, though many of us remained dry. This should change by tomorrow. We’re looking at a developing wave across Texas right now that may bring in as much as an inch of rain for a few lucky areas that get thunderstorms. This should provide widespread showers and thunderstorms across our entire area and pull out late Tuesday. A few localized heavy downpours are possible.
The bigger show for the week looks to affect us as early as late Wednesday in eastern OK. A trough, digging out west looks to carry a few systems into the continental US. The first will likely go well to the north of us but, a secondary low is slated to develop just east of the Rockies and pass through our area. It’s looking like it will have some Jet energy to work with and the wind profile may support some longer lived thunderstorms. We’re monitoring developments closely as it looks like we may have our next round of severe weather in a mere three to four days.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 9:21 PM
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Saturday, March 24, 2007
PLIGHT OF A CLOSED-LOW
Six days ago a trough was digging, or amplifying if you wish, off the Pacific Coast. With great consistency over some two days, long-range forecast models had this swinging through our area and giving us copious amounts good ol’ H2o. Did this happen? Well, no, not even close! Just take a look around at the ever pervasive green film that has settled on our cars, roads, driveways and has now even moved into our homes. Pollen is what we got and we certianly could use some rain to help wash it away.
So, what went wrong? A closed-low as we’ve mentioned before is a weatherman’s woe or to be PC a forecaster’s woe! This trough dug a hole in the southwestern United States and said “Hasta la vista baby!” as it broke off from the main flow. There an upper level low sat and did it’s spinning thing for most of the past week, while the Jet stream remained north of us and left us in no rain land. Last night part of this closed low pulled north and dished out some fifteen tornados across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. The other part is still spinning, but now this remaining “piece of energy” looks to be picked up by the southern branch of the Jet stream or the sub tropical Jet and pass through our area late Monday and into Tuesday.
What does this mean for us? Say your prayers and keep your fingers crossed, hopefully we’ll finally get some rain. We’re down by some three inches for the month but for the year we’re still hanging tough thanks to a wet January. In the long range we still are looking at a system to impact us on Wednesday night which will likely carry into Thursday. This could be our next round of severe weather. So, we’ll cling to what rain chances we’ve got and hope for the best.
So, what went wrong? A closed-low as we’ve mentioned before is a weatherman’s woe or to be PC a forecaster’s woe! This trough dug a hole in the southwestern United States and said “Hasta la vista baby!” as it broke off from the main flow. There an upper level low sat and did it’s spinning thing for most of the past week, while the Jet stream remained north of us and left us in no rain land. Last night part of this closed low pulled north and dished out some fifteen tornados across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. The other part is still spinning, but now this remaining “piece of energy” looks to be picked up by the southern branch of the Jet stream or the sub tropical Jet and pass through our area late Monday and into Tuesday.
What does this mean for us? Say your prayers and keep your fingers crossed, hopefully we’ll finally get some rain. We’re down by some three inches for the month but for the year we’re still hanging tough thanks to a wet January. In the long range we still are looking at a system to impact us on Wednesday night which will likely carry into Thursday. This could be our next round of severe weather. So, we’ll cling to what rain chances we’ve got and hope for the best.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 7:06 PM
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Friday, March 23, 2007
MOONLIGHTING
It’s hard to believe but our very own Drew Michaels apparently did a little moonlighting with The Rolling Stones back in the mid-70s. In fact, after seeing the proof myself (above picture) I just had to find out for sure if it was true, so I asked him today…
“Say Drew, You like the Rolling Stones, right?”
Yea sure… great band!
“So, um… you didn’t happen to ever be in the band did you?”
Well Ted, you see that was real fluky thing… When the Stones passed through Chicago, Mick was detained with US Customs and I just happened to run into the rest of the band at Sal's, a great downtown sandwich shop, before the show. I recognized Keith, Ronnie, and Charlie and couldn’t help but overhear about their dilemma, being without a lead vocalist. Knowing all their songs, like a bolt of lightning, I knew what I had to do. I was in good with one of the long time waitresses and I knew she wore a wig which just happened to look a bit like Mick’s hair. So, I borrowed it and walked over to their table and merely said “Problem Solved” for a few, they even thought that I was Mick!
We rocked Wrigley like there was no tomorrow…baby!
“That’s ridiculously amazing! But, how did you make it onto the cover of Black & Drew?”
Well that was just a shot of Keith whispering something to me about London weather but I couldn’t understand him”
“What exactly was he saying?”
Something like… When the tide starts rising and the wind starts blowing, I pick up my guitar and traganstufkl … heh heh Man..you dig!?
“I didn’t quite understand that last bit.”
Yea, I don’t think Keith did either
“Remarkable, So Drew, Do you miss the big stage?”
Nope, just the Limo’s
So there you have it. That’s all he would say about the experience. But, I did manage to squeak out just a little more info…
“C’mon, what song was your favorite to sing? He was quiet for a moment and then just said…”
Hey, you, get off of my cloud
“Say Drew, You like the Rolling Stones, right?”
Yea sure… great band!
“So, um… you didn’t happen to ever be in the band did you?”
Well Ted, you see that was real fluky thing… When the Stones passed through Chicago, Mick was detained with US Customs and I just happened to run into the rest of the band at Sal's, a great downtown sandwich shop, before the show. I recognized Keith, Ronnie, and Charlie and couldn’t help but overhear about their dilemma, being without a lead vocalist. Knowing all their songs, like a bolt of lightning, I knew what I had to do. I was in good with one of the long time waitresses and I knew she wore a wig which just happened to look a bit like Mick’s hair. So, I borrowed it and walked over to their table and merely said “Problem Solved” for a few, they even thought that I was Mick!
We rocked Wrigley like there was no tomorrow…baby!
“That’s ridiculously amazing! But, how did you make it onto the cover of Black & Drew?”
Well that was just a shot of Keith whispering something to me about London weather but I couldn’t understand him”
“What exactly was he saying?”
Something like… When the tide starts rising and the wind starts blowing, I pick up my guitar and traganstufkl … heh heh Man..you dig!?
“I didn’t quite understand that last bit.”
Yea, I don’t think Keith did either
“Remarkable, So Drew, Do you miss the big stage?”
Nope, just the Limo’s
So there you have it. That’s all he would say about the experience. But, I did manage to squeak out just a little more info…
“C’mon, what song was your favorite to sing? He was quiet for a moment and then just said…”
Hey, you, get off of my cloud
Posted by Ted Zarras at 4:06 PM
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Thursday, March 22, 2007
The "Great Tri-state Tornado"
Four days ago was the 82nd anniversary of a storm simply known as the “Great Tri-state Tornado”. The picture of the destroyed town was taken in Griffin, Indiana and the picture of the damaged school building was taken in Murphysboro, Illinois.
The 'Great Tri-state Tornado' of March 18, 1925 tore a 219 mile path through Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, resulting in the greatest US tornado disaster ever. 695 people were killed, the largest death toll from a single tornado in US history. 234 deaths occurred at Murphysboro, Illinois, the biggest death toll within a single city from a tornado on record. At one point, the tornado was moving at a record setting 73 mph. This tornado was easily an F5 on the Fujita scale with winds exceeding 260 mph. Instead of occurring along a cold front or in a squall line, the tornado was closely associated with a surface low pressure area. In all respects, it was a remarkable tornado and stands alone in its own class of tornadic events.
It’s been a quiet March thus far across our area. There is a trough that’s digging a bit out in the Pacific. This is slated to move through our area in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame of next week. It is something that has been showing up with some consistency, though we still need the pesky closed-low that is now over the Gulf of California to push through before this next system. Once this happens, hopefully we will be able to put a little more merit in the extended.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 5:28 PM
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Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Same old Story..Same old Song and Dance
The chance for showers and storms exists for Thursday afternoon, but until a frontal boundary pulls through our area, it looks like the best chance for thunderstorms will stay throughout southern Missouri and Kansas. Southern Missouri is now under a flood watch from the recent heavy rains they received, so more rain will only create more of an issue.
The 0Z NAM places the higher QPF amounts north of our area, which correlates with the placement of the front. We have been warming aloft over the last several days, so I expect a decent cap in place. I have a suspicion that surface heating won't be enough to overcome the cap, so frontal forcing will be the best bet for rain and storms.
Look for a cumulus field to develop throughout the afternoon, but the clouds will lack the vertical height due to the warm air aloft. A 50% chance for storms across NE OK and NW AR exists on Thursday. Benton, Carroll, and Delaware counties will have the best chance to see storms. Expect only a 20% chance for storms across the River Valley toward the evening.
The upper level support is fairly weak, so small hail and gusty winds will be our primary threats. Increased sunshine could create more of a hail threat.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:19 PM
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Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Our Front's on the Move.......
As I explained in my previous post, a stationary front is a great indicator of where heavy rain will likely fall; however, that stationary front is now moving northeast as a warm front.
Over the last 24 hours, Doppler radar had estimated over 6 inches of rain across sections of southwest Missouri. We've seen that boundary responsible for the flooding rain draped across NE OK and SW MO over the last 24 hours. This will take rain chances overnight well to our north.
Wednesday is the first full day of Spring, and it's going to feel like it! Temperatures with some sunshine will easily climb into the 70s. Some spots across the River Valley may top out near 80. We'll be significantly capped throughout the afternoon, so we don't expect showers and storms to develop. On Thursday, a frontal boundary will come back into the area, and that may spark more showers and storms to develop. We'll comment on the severe weather chances for Thursday in an upcoming blog post.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:02 PM
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Monday, March 19, 2007
Welcome to Transition Season....
This is the time of the year where meteorologists start to pull their hair out in protest of poor computer model performance. Computer models tend to have problems as the seasons change. Call it Spring fever, but recently, our models have painted heavy precipitation to break out north of I-40. Unfortunately, the models have been too far south with the front, so the real placement of the frontal boundary is along the border of Arkansas and Missouri. You can see in the picture above.......
The trick to this current forecast is to find the actual frontal boundary from the surface observations! The boundary will help to pinpoint exactly where the precipitation will occur. In a typical situation, steady or heavy rainfall occurs just to the north of the frontal boundary, where your max warm air advection exists. More warm air means more lift, and a greater chance for heavy rain to form. Disturbances aloft carry the precip from west to east over the same areas, allowing several inches of rain to fall in the same area.
This training has occurred tonight across McDonald and Carroll counties. This boundary will likely lift a little further north overnight, keeping the heavy precipitation in SW MO, NE OK, and SW Kansas. Look for another chance for heavy rain in the same areas for Tuesday, before the boundary lifts north as a warm front for Wednesday. If we see sunshine on Thursday, expect to see areas crack 80s degrees!
Posted by Drew Michaels at 7:48 PM
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Sunday, March 18, 2007
BE SAFE BE PREPARED!
On Saturday, Drew, Justin and I greatly enjoyed meeting everyone at the Community Preparedness Community Fair which was held at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints in Bentonville. Many people stopped by our booth and asked a multitude of questions about severe weather, safety and tornados. Early on, when the atmospheric conditions in the building were balanced just so, we were able to produce our own tornado which was captured on film by local pilot, Tom Eastman.
On another note... the week ahead is looking wet! The good news is that we may very well end up around average rainfall-wise for the month of March. Right now we’re still at less than a half inch in both Fort Smith and Fayetteville. Average monthly rain is about four inches in both locations. The latest long range data supports rainfall amounts of up to three inches by the end of the week and there could possibly be higher totals, especially in areas that get a few thunderstorms. We do have the threat of possible severe weather by Wednesday evening and into Thursday. We’ll be closely monitoring developments.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 8:26 PM
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Thursday, March 15, 2007
A QUICK TEMP DROP!
A cold front is moving across the area and is showing up rather nicely on the last hourly observations. Many stations are now some 10 plus degrees lower than temps just two hours ago. Here’s a list of a few of the more impressive temp drops.
Bentonville: High of 68F, presently 55F
Rogers: High of 68F, presently 55F
Siloam Springs: High of 72F, presently 57F
Springdale: High of 69F, presently 55F
We’ll be looking at temps much closer to seasonal averages over the next few days.
Averages in Fort Smith are right around 64 / 41 High to Low and in Fayetteville 59 / 37.
Next week may be a bit on the wet side. Long range models have us getting into a trough by Wednesday and we may make up for the dry start that we’ve seen so far with plentiful showers and thunderstorms. We’re still at less than a half inch of precipitation for the month across the board and now is the time that the rain would be nice to help counter dryer months in Summer and to fill the area lakes.
Bentonville: High of 68F, presently 55F
Rogers: High of 68F, presently 55F
Siloam Springs: High of 72F, presently 57F
Springdale: High of 69F, presently 55F
We’ll be looking at temps much closer to seasonal averages over the next few days.
Averages in Fort Smith are right around 64 / 41 High to Low and in Fayetteville 59 / 37.
Next week may be a bit on the wet side. Long range models have us getting into a trough by Wednesday and we may make up for the dry start that we’ve seen so far with plentiful showers and thunderstorms. We’re still at less than a half inch of precipitation for the month across the board and now is the time that the rain would be nice to help counter dryer months in Summer and to fill the area lakes.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 3:55 PM
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Wednesday, March 14, 2007
THURSDAY T-STORM POTENTIAL
Tomorrow afternoon as the front from the north approaches and the upper level low passes by to our south there may be a window for a few isolated thunderstorms to form just east of the River Valley and points southward. Nickel to dime size hail and some gusty winds will be the primary threat.
The above sounding from Russellville at 00z tomorrow shows a tall skinny cape scenario with a dry layer from roughly 600mb to 850mb. This dry layer may be the culprit for some damaging winds. Below are some of the indices for the sounding. We should hit our convective temperature of 74F, so we shall see. A few lucky spots may also get some heavy rain, which will be nice for the newly budded plants.
Cap Strength: 0.91 C
Lifted Index: -2.38 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Lifted Index @300 mb: 2.61 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: -0.00 C
Showalter Index: -0.85 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
Total Totals Index: 52.57 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 27.38 C
Cross Totals Index: 25.20 C
K Index: 20.55 Risk: 20-40 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 201.20 Risk: None
Energy Index: -1.13 Risk: Scattered severe thunderstorms
The above sounding from Russellville at 00z tomorrow shows a tall skinny cape scenario with a dry layer from roughly 600mb to 850mb. This dry layer may be the culprit for some damaging winds. Below are some of the indices for the sounding. We should hit our convective temperature of 74F, so we shall see. A few lucky spots may also get some heavy rain, which will be nice for the newly budded plants.
Cap Strength: 0.91 C
Lifted Index: -2.38 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Lifted Index @300 mb: 2.61 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: -0.00 C
Showalter Index: -0.85 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
Total Totals Index: 52.57 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 27.38 C
Cross Totals Index: 25.20 C
K Index: 20.55 Risk: 20-40 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 201.20 Risk: None
Energy Index: -1.13 Risk: Scattered severe thunderstorms
Posted by Ted Zarras at 4:24 PM
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Severe Storms for Thursday?
How about these temperatures in the 70s over the last couple of days? This pesky upper level low dominating our current weather pattern will finally depart to our east by Wednesday afternoon; moreover, a shortwave across the upper Midwest will help to push a cold front our way for Thursday afternoon, creating a chance for showers and storms.
I will say this, if we didn't have to deal with this cut-off upper low, it wouldn't surprise me to see temperatures in the 80s and possibly 90s! I'll take the 70s.......
Limited upper level dynamics will keep the severe weather threat low for Thursday afternoon/evening, but with enough destabilization ahead of the front, small hail and damaging winds could become an issue by Thursday evening. We'll likely see a broken squall line along the leading edge of the cold air, with some embedded strong to severe storms.
The MOS numbers are trending cooler with the air ahead of the front for Thursday, but I'm not buying into it. If the frontal passage doesn't happen until the late afternoon, I'll expect highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s for Thursday afternoon. 15C to 16C degree air will be present at 850 mb, so we'll warm quickly!
One more thing to note from the latest 0Z run of the NAM......a shortwave at 500 mb is forecast to create an MCS just to our west on Friday afternoon. This will be interesting to watch where this goes! Stay tuned!
Don't forget to watch our severe storm special, "Surviving Severe Weather", airing Thursday night at 6:30 p.m. only on 40/29!
I will say this, if we didn't have to deal with this cut-off upper low, it wouldn't surprise me to see temperatures in the 80s and possibly 90s! I'll take the 70s.......
Limited upper level dynamics will keep the severe weather threat low for Thursday afternoon/evening, but with enough destabilization ahead of the front, small hail and damaging winds could become an issue by Thursday evening. We'll likely see a broken squall line along the leading edge of the cold air, with some embedded strong to severe storms.
The MOS numbers are trending cooler with the air ahead of the front for Thursday, but I'm not buying into it. If the frontal passage doesn't happen until the late afternoon, I'll expect highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s for Thursday afternoon. 15C to 16C degree air will be present at 850 mb, so we'll warm quickly!
One more thing to note from the latest 0Z run of the NAM......a shortwave at 500 mb is forecast to create an MCS just to our west on Friday afternoon. This will be interesting to watch where this goes! Stay tuned!
Don't forget to watch our severe storm special, "Surviving Severe Weather", airing Thursday night at 6:30 p.m. only on 40/29!
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:02 PM
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Monday, March 12, 2007
40/29 Storm Special This Thursday at 6:30 p.m.
I want to invite everybody to watch, "Surviving Severe Weather", a 40/29 storm team weather special airing this Thursday at 6:30 p.m. This special report will help everybody prepare and talk about the upcoming severe weather season.
Thursday's storm team special will give you some potentially life saving tips, along with how forecasters are using the latest technology to help you stay safe.
We'll go all the way to Norman, Oklahoma to show you an inside look at the Storm Prediction Center, along with a behind the scenes vantage point of the Super Doppler Weather Center during a severe weather event.
Join us this Thursday night at 6:30 p.m. for "Surviving Severe Weather" only on 40/29!
Thursday's storm team special will give you some potentially life saving tips, along with how forecasters are using the latest technology to help you stay safe.
We'll go all the way to Norman, Oklahoma to show you an inside look at the Storm Prediction Center, along with a behind the scenes vantage point of the Super Doppler Weather Center during a severe weather event.
Join us this Thursday night at 6:30 p.m. for "Surviving Severe Weather" only on 40/29!
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:18 PM
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TWO REX BLOCKS & AN OMEGA
When an area of high pressure sets up over a closed low, westward propagation of storm systems drastically slows down. This feature of a High over a Low is known as a Rex Block. There are presently two of these features showing up on the 500mb northern hemispherical upper air chart.
Look for the Blue H and the Red L on the above map. There’s one over the central Pacific and one over the Mediterranean. Long range forecast models follow suit rather nicely with a quiet week across the states. A set up for severe weather is not imminent at this time.
The yellow line highlights another blocking pattern that’s also apparent called an Omega Block. It consists of a High flanked by two Lows and gets its name because the shape of the flow resembles the Greek letter Omega. This is superimposed with the Pacific Rex. It’s almost like a block within a block! This just further re-enforces a tranquil weather pattern over the next week to ten days or so.
We shall see what the end of the month has in store, but for now, I can almost hear the crickets chirping!
*HINT (a tip if the entire chart is not visible)
*Try right clicking on the picture and saving it to a folder. Once it’s saved you should be prompted to open up the file. Click “open”. You will now be able to view the entire chart.
Look for the Blue H and the Red L on the above map. There’s one over the central Pacific and one over the Mediterranean. Long range forecast models follow suit rather nicely with a quiet week across the states. A set up for severe weather is not imminent at this time.
The yellow line highlights another blocking pattern that’s also apparent called an Omega Block. It consists of a High flanked by two Lows and gets its name because the shape of the flow resembles the Greek letter Omega. This is superimposed with the Pacific Rex. It’s almost like a block within a block! This just further re-enforces a tranquil weather pattern over the next week to ten days or so.
We shall see what the end of the month has in store, but for now, I can almost hear the crickets chirping!
*HINT (a tip if the entire chart is not visible)
*Try right clicking on the picture and saving it to a folder. Once it’s saved you should be prompted to open up the file. Click “open”. You will now be able to view the entire chart.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 4:30 PM
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Sunday, March 11, 2007
POPS
We recently received a question regarding “POPS”. Listed below is a reposting of the response. Pops are a dicey subject in a room full of meteorologists, but weighing the pros and cons are also a fun debate!
ENJOY… and feel free to chime in!
We put POP chances on the seven day forecast, or “Probability Of Precipitation” chances to give an idea to the viewer of the likelihood of a precipitation event to occur. This is expressed in percentages though descriptors could just as easily be used. For instance, a 20% chance would correlate with “slight” and/or the words “widely scattered” for an event.
The official definition of POP is “the likelihood of occurrence, expressed as a percent, of a precipitation event at any given point in the forecast area within a clearly stated period of time”.
Interestingly, within the field of meteorology there are two distinct schools of thought on “pops”. Some say that percentages are confusing to a viewer and words such as “slight chance, chance and likely” should be used along with “isolated, few, widely scattered, and numerous”. Others say that the numeric percents are the way to go.
It also seems as if pops are either used in a market by all stations or they’re not. I’ve lived in areas where they were not used and in some where they are.
One thing that is “likely” and that has a “90%” chance of occurring, is that the debate on pops will always be around!
ENJOY… and feel free to chime in!
We put POP chances on the seven day forecast, or “Probability Of Precipitation” chances to give an idea to the viewer of the likelihood of a precipitation event to occur. This is expressed in percentages though descriptors could just as easily be used. For instance, a 20% chance would correlate with “slight” and/or the words “widely scattered” for an event.
The official definition of POP is “the likelihood of occurrence, expressed as a percent, of a precipitation event at any given point in the forecast area within a clearly stated period of time”.
Interestingly, within the field of meteorology there are two distinct schools of thought on “pops”. Some say that percentages are confusing to a viewer and words such as “slight chance, chance and likely” should be used along with “isolated, few, widely scattered, and numerous”. Others say that the numeric percents are the way to go.
It also seems as if pops are either used in a market by all stations or they’re not. I’ve lived in areas where they were not used and in some where they are.
One thing that is “likely” and that has a “90%” chance of occurring, is that the debate on pops will always be around!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 11:00 PM
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Saturday, March 10, 2007
CUT-OFF LOWS
Sometimes a trough of low pressure will get pinched off from the main jet stream flow. This leaves a spinning eddy of air meandering, “cut-off” from the mean upper level winds. Around the low, precipitation, clouds and cooler weather can last for days. Forecasting models have a tough time handling these enigmatic features.
Our weather over the next three to four days will largely be dictated by such a feature which is now over the pan handle of Texas. The latest trend is for this low to move to the southwest and then by midweek pass to our south with a gradual eastward movement. It is important to note that this may change in both timing and position.
At this point, given the trend, it’s safe to that points south of I-40 stand the best chance of seeing rain throughout the short term, though areas further to the south and west stand an even better shot.
Round and round and round the low goes…where it tracks is a tough, tough call!
Our weather over the next three to four days will largely be dictated by such a feature which is now over the pan handle of Texas. The latest trend is for this low to move to the southwest and then by midweek pass to our south with a gradual eastward movement. It is important to note that this may change in both timing and position.
At this point, given the trend, it’s safe to that points south of I-40 stand the best chance of seeing rain throughout the short term, though areas further to the south and west stand an even better shot.
Round and round and round the low goes…where it tracks is a tough, tough call!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 8:43 PM
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Friday, March 09, 2007
Storms are Weakening...
Showers and storms continue to weaken as they approach a more stable atmosphere in western Arkansas. Look for strong to severe storms to continue through 9:00 p.m. across McCurtain and Polk counties. Hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph are still possible.
Heavy rain and thunder will accompany storms moving throughout Yell and Pope counties through 9:00 p.m.
Heavy rain and thunder will accompany storms moving throughout Yell and Pope counties through 9:00 p.m.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 6:07 PM
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Severe Weather Rolling Through The Area, But Slowly Winding Down
A few reports of large hail have just been reported with the severe storms.
Talihina (western Leflore county) 1.00"
Vian (western Sequoyah county) 0.88"
Though some rotation was noted with a few severe storms earlier, the trend has been to slowly weaken the activity as it progresses to the southeast. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 10PM.
Large hail from dime to golfball size will be a diminishing threat through 9PM, with the greatest threat of large hail moving from southern Leflore to McCurtain county.
A few wind gusts from 40-50 mph will also be possible with the strongest of storms.
As a cold front moves in later this evening, winds will swith to the northwest bringing in cooler and drier air.
Justin Povick
Sunrise Meteorologist
Talihina (western Leflore county) 1.00"
Vian (western Sequoyah county) 0.88"
Though some rotation was noted with a few severe storms earlier, the trend has been to slowly weaken the activity as it progresses to the southeast. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 10PM.
Large hail from dime to golfball size will be a diminishing threat through 9PM, with the greatest threat of large hail moving from southern Leflore to McCurtain county.
A few wind gusts from 40-50 mph will also be possible with the strongest of storms.
As a cold front moves in later this evening, winds will swith to the northwest bringing in cooler and drier air.
Justin Povick
Sunrise Meteorologist
Posted by Drew Michaels at 4:56 PM
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7:00 Severe Weather Update....
Through 7:00 p.m. watch out for storm cells that have the possibility to contain large hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts between 50 to 60 mph. The strongest storms will impact LeFlore, Crawford, Sebastian, and Sequoyah counties.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 4:19 PM
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Thunderstorm Watch Till 10:00 P.M.
Evening showers and storms are developing ahead of a frontal boundary to the west of the area. A shortwave trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere is sparking off storms that will likely contain large hail and strong gusty winds. Hail to the size of quarters will be possible with these storms along with winds from 50 to 60 mph.
These showers and storms will move east this evening, and look to be out of our area by 10 p.m. We'll be watching things closely in the Super Doppler Weather Center.
These showers and storms will move east this evening, and look to be out of our area by 10 p.m. We'll be watching things closely in the Super Doppler Weather Center.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 3:06 PM
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Thursday, March 08, 2007
Want to Meet the Weather Team?
The Super Doppler Weather Team will be at the Community Emergency Preparedness Fair in Bentonville on Saturday, March 17th. The safety fair will be held at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints on McCollum Rd. from 10 a.m. till 3 P.M.
Natural disasters and severe weather can bring with them loss of electricity, heat, and clean drinking water. Come find out how to prepare YOUR family and community. Many local businesses and Emergency Management personnel will be there to meet and answer questions.
Justin, Ted, and I will be there to answer your weather questions. We'll also be passing out Super Doppler Storm guides, so come out and see us!
Natural disasters and severe weather can bring with them loss of electricity, heat, and clean drinking water. Come find out how to prepare YOUR family and community. Many local businesses and Emergency Management personnel will be there to meet and answer questions.
Justin, Ted, and I will be there to answer your weather questions. We'll also be passing out Super Doppler Storm guides, so come out and see us!
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:35 PM
0 comments
TYPES OF THUNDERSTORMS
First of all three ingredients are needed for thunderstorms; moisture, instability and lift. Moisture is essentially the fuel for a thunderstorm. An unstable atmosphere is one where if a “blob” of air is forced to rise it will continue to rise, being warmer than the surrounding air. Lastly, something invariably will initiate rising motion, this is often referred to as the “kicker” or “trigger”. Sources of lift include; fronts, troughs, localized wind fluctuations interacting with topography and even daytime heating.
A regular thunderstorm, or what we often refer to as “garden variety storms” here in the weather center, go through three distinct stages. First is the towering cumulus stage. The developing storm is comprised mainly of updrafts. Next is the mature stage. The storm now has downdrafts too as well as rain, possibly hail, lightning, thunder and gusty winds. Eventually falling precipitation and evaporatively cooled air shut off in-flow and the storm begins to dissipate. This the last stage of a thunderstorm.
A severe thunderstorm by definition is one that has either wind gusts higher than 58mph and or ¾ inch hail in diameter and or a tornado. Two key additional ingredients that often take a thunderstorm into the realm of having severe criteria are a turning of winds with height which is also known as directional shear as well a lot of upper air support such as a jet streak imbedded in an already swiftly moving jet stream. The latter infers that not only the direction of the wind is changing with height but the speed is too. This is known as speed shear. Strong winds aloft allow the precipitation to fall out ahead of the storm leaving the in-flow of warm humid air intact. This can lead to long-lived rotating thunderstorms, which are often referred to as supercells, or formally as mesocyclones. Not all, but most tornados originate from these types of storms.
Things still look quiet over the next week with a couple of chances for rain and thunderstorms of the garden variety, though we’re just now starting to get into spring so we’ll continue to monitor all developments for the potential of severe weather.
A regular thunderstorm, or what we often refer to as “garden variety storms” here in the weather center, go through three distinct stages. First is the towering cumulus stage. The developing storm is comprised mainly of updrafts. Next is the mature stage. The storm now has downdrafts too as well as rain, possibly hail, lightning, thunder and gusty winds. Eventually falling precipitation and evaporatively cooled air shut off in-flow and the storm begins to dissipate. This the last stage of a thunderstorm.
A severe thunderstorm by definition is one that has either wind gusts higher than 58mph and or ¾ inch hail in diameter and or a tornado. Two key additional ingredients that often take a thunderstorm into the realm of having severe criteria are a turning of winds with height which is also known as directional shear as well a lot of upper air support such as a jet streak imbedded in an already swiftly moving jet stream. The latter infers that not only the direction of the wind is changing with height but the speed is too. This is known as speed shear. Strong winds aloft allow the precipitation to fall out ahead of the storm leaving the in-flow of warm humid air intact. This can lead to long-lived rotating thunderstorms, which are often referred to as supercells, or formally as mesocyclones. Not all, but most tornados originate from these types of storms.
Things still look quiet over the next week with a couple of chances for rain and thunderstorms of the garden variety, though we’re just now starting to get into spring so we’ll continue to monitor all developments for the potential of severe weather.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 5:55 PM
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Where There's Smoke, There's Fire.......
You probably have noticed an abundance of smoke in our atmosphere. No question about it, the recent drifting smoke can be attributed to controlled burns throughout our area. The smoke can be a real inconvenience, but did you ever think about some of the positives to a controlled burn?
Reducing Fuels
The winter season is full of dead vegetation, and we all yearn for the spring just to see some green on the trees. Unfortunately, this dead plant matter becomes a dangerous fuel for fires, and controlled burns help to eliminate those fuels before a major forest fire starts.
Improving Wildlife & Vegetation
Burning promotes seed germination, flowering, and resprouting of fire-adaptive native plants. This also helps to improve the overall habitat. New growth after a fire produces more nutritious and palatable tasting plants to animals. Fires also promote flower, seed, and fruit production. Burning different areas at different intervals and in different seasons produces a diversity of landscapes, animal food, and cover sources.
Of course, burning can be a nuisance when it comes to the smoke in the atmosphere, but the long term benefits to the environment and to our safety easily outweigh the smokey sky.
Reducing Fuels
The winter season is full of dead vegetation, and we all yearn for the spring just to see some green on the trees. Unfortunately, this dead plant matter becomes a dangerous fuel for fires, and controlled burns help to eliminate those fuels before a major forest fire starts.
Improving Wildlife & Vegetation
Burning promotes seed germination, flowering, and resprouting of fire-adaptive native plants. This also helps to improve the overall habitat. New growth after a fire produces more nutritious and palatable tasting plants to animals. Fires also promote flower, seed, and fruit production. Burning different areas at different intervals and in different seasons produces a diversity of landscapes, animal food, and cover sources.
Of course, burning can be a nuisance when it comes to the smoke in the atmosphere, but the long term benefits to the environment and to our safety easily outweigh the smokey sky.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 7:16 PM
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Welcome to March
I have been in Arkansas for over 5 years now, and I have to say, I love the mild winter! Other than some haze from controlled burns, we've seen some beautiful weather. I wanted to talk about the averages for the month of March.........
March Averages:
Highs: Upper 50s and lower 60s.
Lows: Upper 30s and lower 40s.
Rainfall: 3" to 4"
Right now the long range pattern could bring a summer like ridge by next week, allowing temperatures to soar into the 70s and 80s. Some of the warmest air of the year could be on the way! Stay tuned!
March Averages:
Highs: Upper 50s and lower 60s.
Lows: Upper 30s and lower 40s.
Rainfall: 3" to 4"
Right now the long range pattern could bring a summer like ridge by next week, allowing temperatures to soar into the 70s and 80s. Some of the warmest air of the year could be on the way! Stay tuned!
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:28 PM
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Sunday, March 04, 2007
OLDEST KNOWN PHOTOGRAPH OF A TORNADO!
I was recently perusing various meteorological archives and happened across the picture above. It is out of the Historic NWS Collection of pictures and has the honor of being the oldest known photograph of a tornado. The photo was taken on the 28th of August, 1884, some 22 miles southwest of Howard, South Dakota. Eerie!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 6:56 PM
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
A LUNAR ECLIPSE, YARD WORK & BODY SURFING!
Luckily we didn’t have the clouds around this evening and that made for great viewing of a lunar eclipse. The moon rose in the east around 6:20 PM. For the next hour or so the moon went from a pale orangey reddish crescent shape to a bright white disc as it popped out from the shadow of the earth. If you happened to snap a picture please send it our way. We would love to put a few on the website!
With a ridge building in the west, and a series of beautiful warmer days ahead, I along with many others I’m sure am thinking about yard work. The problem is that I have plenty of inside jobs to do and my wife wishes I would finish those first but, how can you when there’s blue crisp sunshine outside…oh well, I’ll try to do both!
The long range pattern is looking rather quiet and our next shot of rain does not look to come in along with a jet packing 180mph winds, meaning that the threat of severe weather appears low. It almost feels like a series of waves have passed through ending with a monster and now we’re in a temporary lull; reminiscent of watching waves at a beach or better yet, body surfing them. There’s always a wait and then a series of waves come in and they usually ramp up to one good one and then it’s time to wait again. We’re in the waiting period.
With a ridge building in the west, and a series of beautiful warmer days ahead, I along with many others I’m sure am thinking about yard work. The problem is that I have plenty of inside jobs to do and my wife wishes I would finish those first but, how can you when there’s blue crisp sunshine outside…oh well, I’ll try to do both!
The long range pattern is looking rather quiet and our next shot of rain does not look to come in along with a jet packing 180mph winds, meaning that the threat of severe weather appears low. It almost feels like a series of waves have passed through ending with a monster and now we’re in a temporary lull; reminiscent of watching waves at a beach or better yet, body surfing them. There’s always a wait and then a series of waves come in and they usually ramp up to one good one and then it’s time to wait again. We’re in the waiting period.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 9:08 PM
0 comments
Friday, March 02, 2007
STORM REPORTS 03/01/2007
TORNADO REPORTS (38)
WIND REPORTS (114)
HAIL REPORTS (206)
The map speaks accolades on its own. Yesterday was a big day. One storm system produced extremes across the board of weather phenomena. One of the most interesting developments of the day was the Tornado that struck in the town of Caulfield, MO, which is just to the north of Mountain Home, AR. This storm was part of the same family of storms that prompted the tornado warnings in the River Valley. We truly have a lot to be thankful for.
Our thoughts and prayers go out to all of the families affected by the devastating tornados across the south east as well as in Missouri and central Illinois.
WIND REPORTS (114)
HAIL REPORTS (206)
The map speaks accolades on its own. Yesterday was a big day. One storm system produced extremes across the board of weather phenomena. One of the most interesting developments of the day was the Tornado that struck in the town of Caulfield, MO, which is just to the north of Mountain Home, AR. This storm was part of the same family of storms that prompted the tornado warnings in the River Valley. We truly have a lot to be thankful for.
Our thoughts and prayers go out to all of the families affected by the devastating tornados across the south east as well as in Missouri and central Illinois.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 7:21 PM
0 comments
Thursday, March 01, 2007
A BREEZY COOL DAY AHEAD!
In the wake of a night filled with severe thunderstorm watches and warnings as well as a tornado watch and multiple warnings, we’re looking at a windy and dry day ahead. Wind chills will be in the 30s for a chunk of the day. A hat will feel nice on the ears!
Our high temps for the day likely have already occurred. Fort Smith hit 70 degrees around 3:00 AM and Fayetteville hit 64 at the same hour. Most everyone has experienced a 20 plus degree temperature drop with this system. Thus far all storm reports have been for hail and high winds. In fact hail as big as 1.75” in diameter or golf ball size was reported in Newton County this morning.
Yesterday, nationwide there were 14 Tornado reports, 9 wind reports and 91 hail reports. It will be interesting to get the totals for today’s event.
Our high temps for the day likely have already occurred. Fort Smith hit 70 degrees around 3:00 AM and Fayetteville hit 64 at the same hour. Most everyone has experienced a 20 plus degree temperature drop with this system. Thus far all storm reports have been for hail and high winds. In fact hail as big as 1.75” in diameter or golf ball size was reported in Newton County this morning.
Yesterday, nationwide there were 14 Tornado reports, 9 wind reports and 91 hail reports. It will be interesting to get the totals for today’s event.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 6:19 AM
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