All was quiet on the western front early this afternoon. Slowly, the clouds started to break, and the instability started to increase ahead of the dryline. The cap was still in place during the early afternoon, holding off convection until around 4:00 p.m. Surface heating and convergence along the dryline wasn't enough to break the cap; however, a shortwave rotating around the upper level low helped to break the CAP late this afternoon. Convective initiation started near Plainview Texas, and the storms quickly moved north into Kansas and Nebraska.

Storm movement along the dryline was from the south to the north along the eastern side of the upper level low. The low isn't moving very quickly east, but a kicker system across the Pacific northwest will slowly help to drive the low toward our area.

Look for Thursday as a whole to be quiet, but storms across central Oklahoma will move our way by Thursday night. Some of those storms may contain large hail and gusty winds. If we destabilize during the afternoon, expect a moisture rich environment for the storms to thrive on. The CAP will likely be an issue for us throughout the day on Thursday, but a shortwave at 500 mb could help crack the CAP if we have enough surface heating during the afternoon. We'll watch everything closely for you!