Our next big weather maker is moving across the southwest, however, a warm southwesterly flow aloft will dominate our weather pattern for Wednesday afternoon. Look for highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s thanks to warm 850mb temps. So will this trough yield any severe weather?

Computer model guidance suggests that the dry line will fire late Wednesday afternoon and evening across western Oklahoma, but those storms should remain west of our area for Wednesday night.

The dry line is forecast to set up across central Oklahoma during the day on Thursday, setting the stage for showers and storms to roll our way by Thursday evening. Temperatures will likely warm throughout the day on Thursday, but more than likely we'll have a pretty stout CAP in place. A couple of ingredients will be needed to fire severe storms...

1. Extensive Surface Heating for Destabilization
2. Convergence along the dryline
3. An Upper level Wave to Help Bust the CAP

If the CAP can erode, supercell storms will have a chance to develop and roll our way. Wind shear isn't very impressive, so the tornado threat will remain low, but large hail and damaging winds can't be ruled out especially if we have a lot of sunshine!