This is the time of the year where meteorologists start to pull their hair out in protest of poor computer model performance. Computer models tend to have problems as the seasons change. Call it Spring fever, but recently, our models have painted heavy precipitation to break out north of I-40. Unfortunately, the models have been too far south with the front, so the real placement of the frontal boundary is along the border of Arkansas and Missouri. You can see in the picture above.......

The trick to this current forecast is to find the actual frontal boundary from the surface observations! The boundary will help to pinpoint exactly where the precipitation will occur. In a typical situation, steady or heavy rainfall occurs just to the north of the frontal boundary, where your max warm air advection exists. More warm air means more lift, and a greater chance for heavy rain to form. Disturbances aloft carry the precip from west to east over the same areas, allowing several inches of rain to fall in the same area.

This training has occurred tonight across McDonald and Carroll counties. This boundary will likely lift a little further north overnight, keeping the heavy precipitation in SW MO, NE OK, and SW Kansas. Look for another chance for heavy rain in the same areas for Tuesday, before the boundary lifts north as a warm front for Wednesday. If we see sunshine on Thursday, expect to see areas crack 80s degrees!