Sunday, March 11, 2007
POPS
We recently received a question regarding “POPS”. Listed below is a reposting of the response. Pops are a dicey subject in a room full of meteorologists, but weighing the pros and cons are also a fun debate!
ENJOY… and feel free to chime in!
We put POP chances on the seven day forecast, or “Probability Of Precipitation” chances to give an idea to the viewer of the likelihood of a precipitation event to occur. This is expressed in percentages though descriptors could just as easily be used. For instance, a 20% chance would correlate with “slight” and/or the words “widely scattered” for an event.
The official definition of POP is “the likelihood of occurrence, expressed as a percent, of a precipitation event at any given point in the forecast area within a clearly stated period of time”.
Interestingly, within the field of meteorology there are two distinct schools of thought on “pops”. Some say that percentages are confusing to a viewer and words such as “slight chance, chance and likely” should be used along with “isolated, few, widely scattered, and numerous”. Others say that the numeric percents are the way to go.
It also seems as if pops are either used in a market by all stations or they’re not. I’ve lived in areas where they were not used and in some where they are.
One thing that is “likely” and that has a “90%” chance of occurring, is that the debate on pops will always be around!
ENJOY… and feel free to chime in!
We put POP chances on the seven day forecast, or “Probability Of Precipitation” chances to give an idea to the viewer of the likelihood of a precipitation event to occur. This is expressed in percentages though descriptors could just as easily be used. For instance, a 20% chance would correlate with “slight” and/or the words “widely scattered” for an event.
The official definition of POP is “the likelihood of occurrence, expressed as a percent, of a precipitation event at any given point in the forecast area within a clearly stated period of time”.
Interestingly, within the field of meteorology there are two distinct schools of thought on “pops”. Some say that percentages are confusing to a viewer and words such as “slight chance, chance and likely” should be used along with “isolated, few, widely scattered, and numerous”. Others say that the numeric percents are the way to go.
It also seems as if pops are either used in a market by all stations or they’re not. I’ve lived in areas where they were not used and in some where they are.
One thing that is “likely” and that has a “90%” chance of occurring, is that the debate on pops will always be around!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 11:00 PM
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