How about these temperatures in the 70s over the last couple of days? This pesky upper level low dominating our current weather pattern will finally depart to our east by Wednesday afternoon; moreover, a shortwave across the upper Midwest will help to push a cold front our way for Thursday afternoon, creating a chance for showers and storms.

I will say this, if we didn't have to deal with this cut-off upper low, it wouldn't surprise me to see temperatures in the 80s and possibly 90s! I'll take the 70s.......

Limited upper level dynamics will keep the severe weather threat low for Thursday afternoon/evening, but with enough destabilization ahead of the front, small hail and damaging winds could become an issue by Thursday evening. We'll likely see a broken squall line along the leading edge of the cold air, with some embedded strong to severe storms.

The MOS numbers are trending cooler with the air ahead of the front for Thursday, but I'm not buying into it. If the frontal passage doesn't happen until the late afternoon, I'll expect highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s for Thursday afternoon. 15C to 16C degree air will be present at 850 mb, so we'll warm quickly!

One more thing to note from the latest 0Z run of the NAM......a shortwave at 500 mb is forecast to create an MCS just to our west on Friday afternoon. This will be interesting to watch where this goes! Stay tuned!

Don't forget to watch our severe storm special, "Surviving Severe Weather", airing Thursday night at 6:30 p.m. only on 40/29!