THURSDAY T-STORM POTENTIAL

Tomorrow afternoon as the front from the north approaches and the upper level low passes by to our south there may be a window for a few isolated thunderstorms to form just east of the River Valley and points southward. Nickel to dime size hail and some gusty winds will be the primary threat.

The above sounding from Russellville at 00z tomorrow shows a tall skinny cape scenario with a dry layer from roughly 600mb to 850mb. This dry layer may be the culprit for some damaging winds. Below are some of the indices for the sounding. We should hit our convective temperature of 74F, so we shall see. A few lucky spots may also get some heavy rain, which will be nice for the newly budded plants.

Cap Strength: 0.91 C
Lifted Index: -2.38 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Lifted Index @300 mb: 2.61 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: -0.00 C
Showalter Index: -0.85 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
Total Totals Index: 52.57 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 27.38 C
Cross Totals Index: 25.20 C
K Index: 20.55 Risk: 20-40 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 201.20 Risk: None
Energy Index: -1.13 Risk: Scattered severe thunderstorms

Posted by Ted Zarras at 4:24 PM