The chance for showers and storms exists for Thursday afternoon, but until a frontal boundary pulls through our area, it looks like the best chance for thunderstorms will stay throughout southern Missouri and Kansas. Southern Missouri is now under a flood watch from the recent heavy rains they received, so more rain will only create more of an issue.

The 0Z NAM places the higher QPF amounts north of our area, which correlates with the placement of the front. We have been warming aloft over the last several days, so I expect a decent cap in place. I have a suspicion that surface heating won't be enough to overcome the cap, so frontal forcing will be the best bet for rain and storms.

Look for a cumulus field to develop throughout the afternoon, but the clouds will lack the vertical height due to the warm air aloft. A 50% chance for storms across NE OK and NW AR exists on Thursday. Benton, Carroll, and Delaware counties will have the best chance to see storms. Expect only a 20% chance for storms across the River Valley toward the evening.

The upper level support is fairly weak, so small hail and gusty winds will be our primary threats. Increased sunshine could create more of a hail threat.