The green numbers are the dewpoint temperatures. Note how they actually drop into the upper teens and 20s to our northwest. This is some mighty dry air, which cools and heats up efficiently, though in the immediate future we'll be focused on the cool side of things. This air is back behind a cold front that continues to move through. As it spills into our area and we dry out, some impressive lows will likely be reached. Tomorrow morning will be chilly but, by Friday morning, we'll be cold and many locations stand a good chance of seeing their first frost. Low lying areas that are sheltered from the wind stand the best chance. We do look to warm quickly into the weekend only to see another temperature drop around Monday. Will November bring some snow?

Happy Halloween to all of your ghouls and goblins! What a perfect fall afternoon. Warm southerly winds ahead of a cold front have allowed temperatures to climb into the 60s and 70s; however, cooler changes are on the way for this evening as the front will pass through. The good news of course is that the front will come through dry! Expect a breezy evening under a partly cloudy sky. Trick or Treaters beware as the temperatures fall into the 50s!

Take a look at the picture above. This is a surface map that depicts the cold front moving into northeastern Oklahoma. Over the next couple of hours the winds will shift from the south to the northwest. Notice the cooler temperatures throughout Kansas and Missouri. We will anticipate highs in the upper 50s to the low to mid 60s for Thursday afternoon.

Looking well ahead into the forecast, models are leaning towards pulling in some cold Canadian air for the next week. The timing of this strong Cold Air Advection (Cold air advection is the process in which the wind blows from a region of cold air to a region of warmer air) looks to either be Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Moving into the month of November, weather patterns like this can take place. That means we should enjoy the weather for the weekend as highs will be in the 70s for the entire viewing area by Sunday afternoon!

The weather should cooperate with all of our outdoor plans for Halloween. Expect a nice warm up into the afternoon across the area. That will allow some mild temperatures for all the trick or treating. Not everyone across the United States will be so lucky. Florida will be dealing with Tropical Depression Noel, and there is a chance that it could be Hurricane Noel by Wednesday afternoon. The rainy weather will be taking place in portions of Michigan and western Pennsylvania. The Pacific Northwest looks to be very cold and rainy. So enjoy the weather and have a safe Halloween!

It has been an unusually warm autumn so far. Look at the average highs and lows in early October for both Fayetteville and Fort Smith. In fact, throughout the first 10 days of the month, temperatures were in the 80s and 90s. There's no coincidence that late fall temperatures are contributing to a late color change.



To get the sugars to change the colors to red you need cool overnight lows in the 40s. The cooler temperatures help to slow the sugars, allowing them to stay in the leaf for a longer period of time. The sugars are ultimately responsible for the vibrant color change!


Here's the latest foliage report. The best colors look to come out over the next 2 weeks across Northwest Arkansas; however, most of the Ouachitas will have to wait until the middle of November for the great color display.


Northwest/North Central – Although there is not much color to see today, it is developing quickly in the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. Many hardwoods are 20% color now, and more changes should be visible with each passing day. Moderate color is forecasted for the weekend of October 26-28, but the peak will probably not occur until several more days go by. Future reports will recommend specific locations and highways that are near peak. Predicted peak of color: early November.

Central Arkansas/Ouachita Mountains – There is less color today than in northern Arkansas, but noticeable changes in fall foliage are taking place in this region too. Rapid progress is expected. Predicted peak of color: early November.

Southern/Eastern Arkansas – Early signs are appearing in this region, but more time is needed. Predicted peak of color: mid November.

The Ozarks of northern Arkansas will have moderate but incomplete color the weekend of October 26-28, with peak conditions unlikely until November. Central Arkansas and the Ouachita Mountains should follow quickly.

Tropical Storm Noel is currently spinning just the the south of Haiti. As it makes landfall it should weaken to a tropical depression. The good news is that Noel is showing no signs of strengthening and no signs of hitting U.S. land. As Noel moves just to the east of the the southeast coast, we could see some strong winds and high surf.

Over the next few days the jetstream will be parked to our North and running more or less west to east, eventually dipping to the SSE as a ridge of High pressure builds in. With the exception of a few pushes of cooler air (weak fronts), keeping a major warm up in check, we look to be quiet into next weekend. Average highs over the upcoming week are about 65 up north and around 70 in the river valley. We look to remain very close to these numbers until a trough now in the middle of the Pacific shakes things up sometime close to next Sunday.

Enjoy the nice stretch of Fall weather!

The long range weather models are hinting at snow in the Great Lakes within the next 10 days. The first image you are seeing is a precipitation forecast for November 4. If you look over Lake Michigan, this model is showing some form of precipitation taking place. No you might be saying, Patrick...how do you know it's snow being forecast? Well, when you forecast you can't just look at just one thing and be done with it. You have to look at multiple models and levels of the atmosphere. When we are talking about winter weather you we have to see if temperatures will be cold enough to support snow or warm enough to support rain.

The full moon tonight (11:52 CDT) is often referred to as the "Hunters Moon", due to the fact that the luminosity would help hunters in the their autumnal hunt, preparing for the winter.

The closest that the moon gets to the Earth within the calender year (Lunar Perigee) will follow the full moon by approximately six hours. These two combined effects will result in especially high astronomical tides in the oceans.

Temperatures dropped off quickly last night as winds relaxed. By 1:00 to 2:00 AM a few 30s were showing up across our area. Fayetteville was down to 39 at one point, though within the course of an hour all the cool spots rose up by some ten plus degrees. A swift breeze out of the NW brought in some warmer air and much of our northern area shot into the low 50s. Areas that remained calm, such as much of the AR River Valley, continued to cool and saw readings 10 to 15 degrees cooler than up north!

Could we see a freeze tonight at Drake Field? Air aloft (850mb) tomorrow morning looks to be roughly around 3 C in Fayetteville. Mixing this out to the surface yields a temp of roughly 52 F. Providing we're clear, which we should be, ten degrees can pulled from this number, yielding a 42. With calm winds the temp could fall possibly as much as another ten, after all we're talking about Drake Field, though with the Low to our south progged to move north we'll likely have enough of a pressure gradient to keep a N to NE wind blowing at 5 to 10 through the night. The answer: not likely but mid to upper 30s certainly are a distinct possibility.

The skies slowly clearing out of the area for tonight. The purple outline shows the clearing across the viewing region. When you add the fact that we have some very dry air in place, we are looking at a big cool down for the morning hours. Don't leave that window open tonight...unless you want to wake up in the middle of your sleep to close it.

There's a great website that you can access weather maps as far back as 130 years ago from. Check it out here. http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html

It seems as if the temperature across much of the area remained in the 50s with winds out of the north. Hmmm... might we be experiencing some sort of cool one hundred year cycle? We'll leave that one to the jury! Anyway, check out the map site. It's a neat place to compare trends. You will have to download a free viewing browser. Just follow the directions. From the October 23 1907 map, here's a nice paragraph on Barometric pressure, winds and expected weather.

WIND BAROMETER INDICATIONS

When the wind sets in from points between south and southeast and the barometer falls steadily a storm is approaching from the west or northwest, and it’s center will pass near or north of the observer within twelve to twenty-four hours with wind shifting to the northwest by way of southwest and west. When the wind sets in from points between east and northeast and the barometer falls steadily a storm is approaching from the south or southwest and its center will pass near or to the south or east of the observer within twelve to twenty-four hours with wind shifting to the northwest by way of north. The rapidity of the storm’s approach and its intensity will be indicated by the rate and the amount of the fall in the barometer.

Powerful Santa Ana winds continue to hurt Southern California. In and downwind of mountain passes, winds have gusted over 60 miles per hour since Saturday. The highest reported gusts have been just over 100 miles per hour. October and November are big Santa Ana months, but usually the winds are not this strong. Here is a look at a satellite image showing the smoke from the fires in Southern California. The smoke looks just like clouds, but the formation and structure is different and clouds don't look like that on satellite images.

The Orionid Meteor Shower peaked early this morning with most of them being fairly dim and fast. There were only a handful of bright meteors and the above is the brightest. This fireball meteor left a smoke trial clearly visible for 5 minutes. Here is the video of the fireball and the residual smoke trail.


You can also go here to see some of the other Orionid Meteors I got.

I hope everyone was able to enjoy the warm and sunny weather that we experienced over the weekend...it is going away! A strong cold front will be moving through the area Sunday night and Monday morning. It will bring cooler temperatures and rain chances. Indications show this system possible stalling out over the area and that could mean consistent weather for the area...cool, cloudy and windy. Rain chances will decrease as we head through the work week.

A tight pressure gradient across the central plains this afternoon was responsible for a very windy day. The departing low pressure system to our north allowed winds to gust near 40 mph across many locations this afternoon. The gradient will start to relax by Friday afternoon; however, we can still expect a breezy west to northwesterly wind during the day on Friday.

The dryline continues to remain active across central Oklahoma this evening. Most of the cells are lined up from Bartlesville south of Tulsa near Okemah. These storms have shown a lot of rotational characteristics, and they could move into Delaware county by 9:00 p.m. The wind shear remains very high, so any storm that does develop could rotate and produce a tornado.

Additional storms are trying to fire south of the line, but they're having a harder time developing. We'll continue to watch that area very closely.

A newly issued tornado watch for SE OK is in effect until 10:00 p.m. Sunshine this afternoon will continue to destabilize the atmosphere, especially across eastern Oklahoma. CAPE values across SE OK have increased to 2000 j/kg.

The main upper level trough will move overhead igniting showers and storms late this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma. These storms will move very rapidly to the NE. Individual storms will have the potential to rotate and produce large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for our area until 6:00 p.m. Conditions this afternoon will be favorable for rotating supercell thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Please read the blog entry below for a more in depth discussion. The 40/29 Super Doppler Storm Team is on alert, so continue to check back on 4029tv.com for more severe weather information.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most of our entire viewing area to a moderate risk for severe weather. Two ingredients that were in question yesterday have already come together this morning to indicate a severe weather outbreak for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Moisture and Destabilization were in question, so here's an explanation of both.

1. Moisture: Moisture has abundantly increased over the last 12 hours. Last night at 10 p.m. dewpoints were only in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Dewpoint temperatures have climbed into the 60s across the area this morning. In fact, dewpoints could climb as high as 70 degrees this afternoon, increasing the amount fuel for thunderstorms.

2. Destabilization: We're seeing pockets of sunshine across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. If the sun continues to warm temperatures into the 70s we'll see very steep lapse rates as the trough moves overhead. A lapse rate is the change of temperature as you go higher in altitude. The higher the lapse rate, the more unstable the atmosphere. Steep lapse rates are a decent indicator for large hail.

We're expecting storm activity after 3 p.m. this afternoon. Please keep checking the blog for other updates throughout the day.

Strong storms are in the forecast for tonight. Precisioncast does a great job showing the movement of the low pressure system and it's associated fronts. The cold front passage will be creating strong storms later this evening and you can see severe storms over the entire viewing area by 10 PM tonight. These storms will include strong winds, heavy rain, hail and the possibility of tornadoes. Keep it tuned to 40/29 TV and 4029tv.com for all your local weather information.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our severe weather threat to a moderate risk across all of eastern Oklahoma and portions of northwest Arkansas. The River Valley into SW AR remains in a slight risk.



Take a look at the graphic above. In response to a surface low developing to our northwest, we'll expect surface winds to strengthen out of the SE throughout the afternoon. Conversely, as we go higher in altitude, the winds aloft will be moving out of the west/southwest.

This change of wind direction with height is known as wind shear; moreover, wind shear is responsible for rotating thunderstorms. Rotating storms can produce large hail, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. The tornado threat looks the best throughout NE OK.

The biggest caveat with tomorrow's set-up remains the sunshine. If showers and storms develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, clouds and rain cooled air will limit destabilization. CAPE values look strong ahead of the dryline, where we expect afternoon storms to initialize, and those storms will rapidly develop and move NE by evening. If we break out in sunshine tomorrow afternoon, then the likelihood for severe weather will remain high.

Continue to check back to the weather blog for further forecasting updates. We're the only station in the market giving you the most complete analysis of severe weather on the web.

Another round of showers and storms blew across the area late Sunday night into Monday leaving behind a swath of wet soil. Take a look at the impressive rainfall totals above. I also want to note that Mena, AR picked up over 2.5 inches of rain with this latest system. If you are looking for more rainfall, don't worry, more showers and storms are on the way for Wednesday night; however, the rainfall may come with severe weather!





Here's the latest model forecast at 500 mb. Notice how the trough is angled toward the SE. This is what we call a negatively tilted trough. These types of troughs create an extreme amount of lift, and unfortunately, a lot of wind shear. Right now we're looking for storms to erupt during Wednesday evening. Large hail, and damaging winds are the primary threats; however, if the wind shear is present, isolated tornadoes will also need to be watched. Continue to check back on our weather blog for the latest updates.

We're heading into a gorgeous weekend. Look for some color change to happen over the next week in response to the last several days with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. Here's the latest fall foliage information. Have a great weekend!


Northwest/North Central The Buffalo River area is still green, with just a hint of yellow showing. Predicted peak of color: Late October/Early November.

Central Arkansas/Ouachita Mountains Only the earliest signs of fall color are beginning to show in this region. Predicted peak of color: Early November.

Southern/Eastern Arkansas Little change is visible this week. Predicted peak of color: Early to Mid November.

We've recently received numerous telephone calls about sightings of large "fireballs" and meteors that have streaked across the Arkansas sky. Many seem to have been sighted east of I-540 over the Ozarks and north of the Arkansas River. Several viewers have recounted their tales of seeing not just an ordinary meteor, but rather "large, intensely bright objects, streaming across the sky." If you perhaps have seen such an event and happened to have captured a picture, we would love to get a copy to post. The video is just a representation of what some of these sightings may have looked like.

Check out this link for a neat look at the world of meteor hunting. http://www.space.com/news/la001_trade_000430.html

I'm not a big fan of putting a lot of stock into a computer model solution 6 to 7 days out, but I did see something today that has caught my attention. I have noticed over the last month that the upper level storm's are coming close to our area, however, at the last minute they pull north, allowing the severe weather threat to stay just to our north.




The latest run of the GFS is now starting to hint at more of a southerly track. Take a look at the picture above. These are winds around 30,000 ft. You can see the trough that is poised to swing across our area by next Thursday. If this scenario holds true, we could be dealing with severe weather.

You need moisture, lift, and wind shear for severe weather to occur. This scenario could provide the necessary ingredients, but like I said earlier, I'm not ready to buy this stock just yet, so stay tuned!