The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our severe weather threat to a moderate risk across all of eastern Oklahoma and portions of northwest Arkansas. The River Valley into SW AR remains in a slight risk.



Take a look at the graphic above. In response to a surface low developing to our northwest, we'll expect surface winds to strengthen out of the SE throughout the afternoon. Conversely, as we go higher in altitude, the winds aloft will be moving out of the west/southwest.

This change of wind direction with height is known as wind shear; moreover, wind shear is responsible for rotating thunderstorms. Rotating storms can produce large hail, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. The tornado threat looks the best throughout NE OK.

The biggest caveat with tomorrow's set-up remains the sunshine. If showers and storms develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, clouds and rain cooled air will limit destabilization. CAPE values look strong ahead of the dryline, where we expect afternoon storms to initialize, and those storms will rapidly develop and move NE by evening. If we break out in sunshine tomorrow afternoon, then the likelihood for severe weather will remain high.

Continue to check back to the weather blog for further forecasting updates. We're the only station in the market giving you the most complete analysis of severe weather on the web.