FRIDAY'S WINTRY WEATHER

If the above model sounding pans out, then it will be looking rather white in Fort Smith by noon. The diagram above is a vertical depiction of the atmosphere for 12:00 noon tomorrow. The red line is the temperature profile and the dashed line is the dewpoint. When the two are matched up, the atmosphere is saturated. On this chart, the atmosphere is near saturated to the tropopause and temperature-wise, at or ever so slightly below freezing. There's a thin layer from 750mb to 850mb that hugs the 0 c isotherm. Sleet might be another likely scenario should this pan out. This is from the GFS. Interestingly, the NAM regional model is very dry with the precipitation.



This map highlights precipitation from the UKMET Global forecasting model. This along with GFS has shown consistency in bringing in precipitation to our area. Both global models seem to have a better handle on the amount of moisture in our West Southwesterly flow. Liquid equivalent amounts have been on the light side thus far (less than 1/10 of an inch), but consistency over time and between both models has been good.

Timing wise, a late morning start to late evening finish is still on track. Heaviest precipitation looks to fall once again, as we saw on Monday, to the south of the Bobby Hopper tunnel with higher terrain in SE OK and SW AR standing a good chance at measurable snow.

Remember to monitor the forecast as well as changing road conditions. Just the thinnest covering of ice could wreck more than your day! Be sure to get the latest from Drew tonight at 5, 6 and 10 pm.

Posted by Ted Zarras at 9:08 AM