The 6Z weather models continue to paint a risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms this coming Saturday. The wind energy will be tremendous with this system as a 100 knot plus jet streak slides across our area in the favored jet region causing divergence aloft. Lee side cyclogenesis will be potent as well with the surface low cranking down into the 980's as it slides east across Kansas by Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile a dryline will sharpen southbound into central Oklahoma. Our 3rd ingredient is what we will have to moniter very closely; the moisture/resulting instability. ATTM most forecast models are currently forecasting meager instability though they could be underestimated the values due to gulf stratus.

If 60+ dewpoints rise north into the river valley and northwest Arkansas, and sunshine can break through the gulf stratus, rotating supercells will be a possibilty by early Saturday afternoon, with a threat of tornadoes.

The last fly in the ointment would be how quickly the mode of severe would go from isolated/scattered supercells to a squall line, due to the large amount of forcing with the system. Once this occurs the threat will be mainly wind damage.

Lots to come on this evolving situation, so stay tuned for many more updates!