A MIXED WEEK AHEAD!

The GFS has been spitting out some light amounts of precipitation for late Wednesday into Thursday for several runs now. We’re mild at the start of the week and warm on Tuesday, but with a push of cold air on Wednesday things may become a little slick by Thursday morning as a wave in the North Westerly flow taps into a little gulf moisture. The above sounding shows a near saturated column up to about 800mb, with the temp just below freezing.

As we’ve seen recently, without moisture in mid levels, dendritic growth is absent and low level moisture remains supercooled until hitting surfaces. Freezing rain and glaze is the hazardous result. On the positive side, precipitation amounts are progged to be on the light side for now, but an eighth of an inch of ice can spin a car just as easily as an inch, so this bears watching and we’ll be fine-tuning the forecast accordingly as we get closer.

The upcoming weekend may bring a little snow to the area again. Long range forecasting model consensus has been good for yet another push of cA (Continental Arctic) air to make it into our area. This just may be coupled with another wave that’s been showing up in different time slots around the Friday / Saturday time frame and if you put stock in the 00Z run of the GFS then we’ve got an actual snow storm on our hands by next Monday… this too bears watching, but for now, we’ll put the most credence on the cold air and we’ll see if it meets up with some moisture. It’s looking like winter may still have a few tricks in store for us!

Posted by Ted Zarras at 9:04 PM