I think the title of this blog entry has a lot of truth, not only in life, but specifically in our discussion on severe weather forecasting. Sunshine is the key to make this severe weather engine turn. You can have all of the upper level dynamics in place, but if your instability is lacking, then your severe weather event is reduced to some isolated strong storms with heavy rainfall. The forecast hinges on the timing of the system.....more surface heating, the more impressive the storms!

The 0Z WRF and the 0Z GFS are very similar in their timing. The overall trend today has the models speeding up the system by about 6 hours. Now, instead of looking at storms for late Saturday afternoon/evening, the models are now timing it to come in by late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. If this scenario plays out, heating will be reduced, and storms won't be as intense.

Now, we're talking a matter of 6 hours, so we'll expect the models to waffle a little until Saturday. Severe weather forecasting is very ingredients based, so we'll be watching each model run for specific trends and changes. Bottom line, Saturday remains volatile, so continue to plan on a chance for severe weather.