Saturday, January 20, 2007
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE...
From the very get go of this winter event we’ve been dealing with a limited amount of cold air. The last blast of cold that moved in with the ice storm last weekend had been lingering over us and with the onset of the precipitation earlier today; there was enough, it was dry, and thanks to a little help in the evaporational cooling department, we saw a little sleet and snow. Ultimately though, along with the continually feed of moisture from the south which saturated the atmosphere, came warm air aloft, otherwise known as warm air advection. This is the horizontal transport of warm air to a region and more often than not the guilty culprit that’s robbed more than one potential big snowstorm. It can also be your best friend for a huge snow if and only if sufficient cold air is in place. It wasn’t the case for us and truth be told, never really appeared as if it would be.
It seems as if the NWS was getting some exercise this morning on the ol’ bicycle…
.DISCUSSION...MAJOR WINTER WEATHER BACK PEDAL UNDERWAY...SNOW - SLEET / RAIN LINE CLOSELY FOLLOWINGI-44 THIS MORNING. 750-800 MB TEMP FORECASTYESTERDAY LOOKS TO PAN OUT. DELETED WINTERADVISORY SOUTH WITH RAIN PRIMARY PRECIP THERE.SOUTH PORTION OF PREVIOUS WARNING CONVERTED/DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORY STATUS. DROPPED SNOWAMOUNTS ABOUT IN HALF AREAS NORTHWEST I-44.
Regardless, this event still has the possibility of going over to a little sleet with some lingering flurries and or sprinkles when it comes to an end early tomorrow morning. For the most part we’ll continue to see the rain and remain above freezing. Check out the updated totals map and thanks for all of the forecast contest entries on the prior post. Keep em’ coming and we’ll tally everything up when this is through.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 1:35 PM
44 Comments:
If the cold air continues to erode means the temperature is falling then you are right on. Idiot! LOL
Hey drummer boy your graphic isnt working!
LKTFOW
LET'S KEEP THE FOCUS ON THE WEATHER
...and for everyone's sake please check the negativity at the door.
It really benefits no one!
The little red x should be the updated totals map. This will be reposted shortly.
I agree, let the meteorologist's do their job and let's not have this thing turn ugly.
LKTFOTWBFW2PUTFTTFMAWWFTWFIOBR
"Let's Keep The Focus On The Weather Because 40/29 Wants To Play Up The Fact That They Finally Made A Winter Weather Forecast Thats Within 15 Inches Of Being Right"
31 degrees at 1900 ft. and the rain continues to freeze.....
same thing here at 1300 feet near Mulberry...nice coating on everything. Trees are making that frozen crunching sound now with the strong winds.
actually according to your map I should be having a cold rain. It is raining but ITS ALSO FREEZING!
people living around around 2000 ft. should reallly watch out for significant ice accumulations.
Thanks for the reports. To that last one... What's your location?
freezing rain here too, branches drooping, your map is not right
I think Garrett got it right. Most places above 1300 feet are seeing icing. small branches are breaking off now...it wouldnt be that bad except its also really windy.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS CANCELLED WINTER STORM WARNING! Thankfully our friends who are without electric won't have the heavy snow to deal with!! Thank you 40/29 weather team for your hard work and keeping us informed! You did good!!
H G
in response to Ted Zarras Question...Im near West Fork at 1900 ft. everything is plastered with ice at the moment, it may be worse even higher up ie..Washington county's Sunset Community which is around 2,300 ft.....
I greatly appreciate that last post. I've looked at some model data and compared it with actual and your stuck in a temperature inversion with a pool of below freezing air up to about 4400’, as are many locations throughout the Ozarks.
Up above that level, temps are above freezing to about 10,000’. This pocket of warm air is melting snow that’s falling from above and then it’s refreezing as glaze or “freezing rain” when it hits the surface. Over the course of the next three hours or so it’s likely that the column of air above will get colder and eventually as this system winds down be completely below freezing. A transition to sleet and then light snow should ensue throughout the remaining course of this event.
Interestingly, perhaps as much as another ¼ inch could be squeezed out before we’re done, so perhaps for you that will translate into a couple tenths of an inch of ice, followed by some sleet and then light snow. The driving obviously will not be the best.
Please keep us updated.
Thanks,
Ted
An adjusted map to take in account the freezing rain will be posting shortly...
Thanks for the reports.
Ted, how far south and east do you think we'll see any ice?
Ted, you were right on in what you said in your last post...Its now all sleet at 1900 ft near West Fork, thanks again, yall are doing a great job...keep up the good work
Sleet in Van Buren
8:20 p.m.: Here in North Bentonville, it's 30 degrees on three of our thermometers. Large sleet pellets are hitting the windows and chimney. Heavy. All over the ground but not creating sheets of ice on the cars or trees, just tons of little ice pellets. Just a dusting of the pellets at this point. Hoping for more tonight/tomorrow!
Justin, Drew & Ted: U guys rock and are in our living room twice a day minimum...you're the best!!!
Sleet falling north of Roland. 9:00 pm
I watched all 3 channels,you guys had 3" for where I live ch5 had 3-6, and knwa had 1". Very interesting
All I know Is that you guys hit the the nail right on the head..Good job!! Eric
According to the KFSM webpage, they were still forecasting the possibilty for 5 inches of snow/sleet in Benton county at 4 this afternoon.
This winter storm is over!
well I would have to say that according to what I have in my yard (1/2" inch sleet/snow) and nearly .5" of freezing rain under that and on trees... you are more wrong than other stations.
Sure, 40/29 was more wrong than KFSM who still had the chance for 5 inches of snow in some areas..oh yeah, they posted that around 4 this afternoon. You are very right!
Just posted the updated totals map shown on the ten. We’ll be tallying additional info and comparing it to the forecasts we received.
For those of you who are still hoping for at least one decent snow event, you’re not alone and we’re not done with winter yet!
Once again, thanks big time for all of the great reports.
You can say this and that about this event all you want but the bottom line is that 1-2 degrees was the difference between 1/2+ sleet ice and 5 inches of snow. And while I am sure you will claim you knew of that 1-2 degree 2 weeks in advance...that would be a true first in meteorological forecasting. Good job with your spin. Kinda like how you spun some weather forecast last year where you called for 12 inches of snow and no one saw anything BUT you claimed you got it right because a 2x4 mile area called Mt Magazine recieved half that much! lol Whats even greater is that for your winter weather we got it right promo for the event or others you actually had your snowfall prediction map changed to reflect what actually happened. Now that was a true measure of desperation there! We got it wrong but lets tell and show everyone we got it right and hope they dont notice!
to the above post....please stop grumbling and complaining..
Give all 3 stations credit for their hard work and dedication from the last event and for heavens sake quit whining some of you, its so lame.
Look, this was a very difficult forecast. Everybody had their opinion... KNWA had theirs, KHOG had theirs, and KFSM had theirs. Quite frankly all 3 stations were wrong and right depending on where you were. KHOG still predicted snow in Benton county that never happened. KFSM's totals were also too high. KNWA probably did the best job and NO ONE predicted the ice. So the simple truth is... we all got it wrong. Meteorology is an inexact science and small differences can make HUGE differences. The atmosphere is sampled very poorly anyway so there really is no way of knowing what the true profile looks like.
I think ALL stations did a great job in their dedication to a forecast and work put in. The public was warned of the possibility. People are probably just glad that it did not snow and cause problems.
WORD!
I want to take this opportunity to thank all of you for posting. It was a lot of fun reading all of your forecasts, and we'll do it all over again when the next event comes along. I know I can speak for all the mets in the market by hoping for some tranquil weather this week.
Winter Storm!!!!!!!!
Winter Storm!!!!!!!!
For RAIN is the NORM!!!!!!!
But,
We can all sing triumphantly...
Winter Storm!!!!!!!!
Any early thoughts on how over 40/29 will be with their next snowfall? I say it will be back to the norm. They will hype it up and be back to their usual 15 inches too high crap they usually put out! WINTER STORM!
I would like a tranquil week after being on data overload. We'll look long and hard at all the information just like every other meteorologist in this market, and then we'll give our best prediction. Trust me we're not out to hype up anything. You saw what we went with for this past weekend.
WINTER STORM!!!!!!!
WINTER STORM!!!!!!!
I REALLY HOPE THIS YEAR THAT WE GET A WONDERFUL...
WINTER STORM!!!!!!!
I just read KFSM Channel 5's blog (http://5newsonlinewx.blogspot.com/). Brad Flickinger (weekday morning weather) has a post on there about getting a forecast wrong. Very standupish. I have seen 40/29 be wrong a lot more than KFSM and 40/29 usually ignores the fact they were wrong or skew their predictions to make them sound more right than they were. Good Job Brad! Thanks for being honest.
What does the above post have to do with the forecast? 5 blew it on this event. Get over it. He also rambles on to say that 5 provides the most accurate forecast....wow, that's bold! Wrong, but bold.
according to ratings its not bold... its true!
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