Friday, January 19, 2007
Latest Thinking and a CONTEST!
So after an updated discussion it might be fun to collect a table of forecasts, wishcasts, and just plain ol’ hunches from you as to what we get when all is said and done for both the River Valley and Fayetteville. To make these legitimate, try to throw out your take on things prior to the start of the event and use the format of:
River valley: xx inches of _____
Fayetteville: xx inches of _____
Make up a name and put it under the prediction and we’ll see…
After checking the latest data, a warm up, be it ever so slight, is still showing up around 800mb in the column of air over the River Valley. This is that southerly feed kicking in and it will be a battle to see how long it looses to the colder air. Check out the soundings from both the NAM and the GFS. They both have this feature showing up by tomorrow evening.
Fayetteville is so ridiculously close to be isothermal that it may be the case that they start off as snow and then just go to sleet and end that way. Still, it is a frugal forecast that
points to the north and west of Fayetteville will just have that much more of the necessary cold to work with that will bring in the higher numbers.Points south of I40 will still likely see some sleet and possibly some snow at the onset of this event tomorrow, though given the warming trend of the atmosphere’s profile as made evident by a sampling of points southward; rain still looks like the end result.
Just an FYI… Grid interpolations are kicking out just around a half inch for this event. Factor in a standard 10 to 1 ratio with a frozen column and you’ve got 5”. We’ll be so very close to freezing that ratios will likely chime in a little lower.
Our map hasn’t changed a whole bunch as to amounts though we’ll be fine tuning throughout.
Our entire team remains in steady communication and we’ll be conducting special on-air updates as need be and Drew says hello!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 6:31 PM
61 Comments:
All I can say is wait ten minutes and the weather will change. I honestly think that it will just rain with a little sleet. My kids want all the snow but we can do without it. Mish predicts the following.
River Valley 1-2 in. of rain/mix
Fayetteville 2 in. of snow
My predictions:
40/29 = wrong
Fayetteville - 6 Inches Snow
River Valley - dusting
River Valley 1/2" of slush (snow, sleet, rain)
Fayetteville 2.5" of snow & sleet
Mr. Pink
Povick said this morning that the NWS would lower their totals, now their up to 9" what gives?
I am really not sure, as the weather constantly changes! If I had to make a guess at it I would say that the River Valley will get about an 1/2 inch to an inch of a sleet/rain mix. I feel that portions north of Fayetteville could see around 4 inches. This would be my assumption, All I can say is wait and see.
Wait until when to see?
be prepared,if it does snow it does if it dont,well it dont. See what happens tomorrow and keep watching the weather for updates.
We'll tally up amounts after the event is over and then compare to the posts. Hopefully we’ll have a definitive front runner.
Be sure to leave a name of sorts (an identifier), just so we have some way of congratulating you should you get the closest to verification.
GOOD LUCK!
River Valley : .5 in. sleet and 2 in. rain
Fayetteville : 2 in. snow and 1 in. sleet
ATU_Dave
Rivervalley,2" snow and sleet.. N.W.A 4" snow and sleet.. Trust Me I know! Eric.
Fayetteville = 6" of snow
River Valley = 2" of sleet/snow
40/29 = Wrong (hopefully) :)
-JDL
Just for fun here we go..
River Valley--- light mix no accum. with .45 inch of rain.
Fayetteville--- 1.8 inchs of snow/sleet .25 inch of rain.
Eastern Oklahoma-- North of I-40-- .50 inch of snow/sleet .45 inch of rain.
Eastern Oklahoma-- South of I-40
Light mix no accum. .55 inch of rain.
Guess who knows for sure??
God does!!
H G
River Valley = 3"
NWA = 12"
Craig says
A trace of snow/sleet and .42 inches of rain in NW Ark.
.57 inches of rain for the River Valley
already have a nice cover of sleet here!
where? its 34 in fay. sounds like 40/29 is gonna get it right
Wait a minute..!!!! After lambasting the "other station" for calling for bad weather .. why all of a sudden last night do YOU guys call for snow and ice..?? You dont have the nads to stick with what you believe..? Unbelievable !! Dont even start criticizing the "other stations" if you dont have the sack to stick with it.
Being a corporate pilot, I know how difficult the weather can be to forecast. I personally love the dedication and hard work the 40/29 weather team puts into their forecast. Thanks, you have one tough job.
Fayetteville- 2-4" with some sleet mixed in.
River Valley- Another cold soak, with some sleet/snow mix by the end. No accumulation.
Fayetteville-a dusting of sleet at most, nothing at all in the River Valley....
well according to your map and where I live I am suppose to have a wintry mix... yet I already have a dusting of sleet on the ground with temp now at 32 (from 34) and sleet that had melted earlier now freezing.
I watch both stations for weather .. just to see what they have to say and how different they are. Lewis has been saying all week it was going to have freezing precip .. 40/29 has been saying nothing .. until now. I thought "standing firm" meant something
Rogers/Bentonville = 1.25-1.75''
Fayetteville = .25-.50''
Rivervalley = 0.-.25''
Raining in Fayetteville and 36 degrees..sounds like the storm is over guys
I think you can attribute a lot of the old weather hype at 40/29 to Salser. Since he's gone things have been more accurate. I guess this weekend's event is a good example....I'm liking the 40/29 staff even better.
40/29=RIGHT
They had to get one right eventually. It also sometimes snows in Florida. I have a feeling this is one of those one in a lifetime events.
Somebody may want to call KFSM and tell them that the Weather Service has changed their forecast AGAIN, so they better do the same. Guys, you can put away your shovels now!
there is still potential for NW Arkansas to recieve a few inches of snow later tonight as upper low approaches...
ONCE AGAIN NOT COLD ENOUGH,AT LEAST IN THE RIVER VALLEY IMAGINE THAT. MOST ALWAYS 2,3,4 DEGREES TO WARM. LAST WEEK WE HAD ABOUT 6" OF RAIN IN COAL HILL, A FEW DEGREES COLDER WOULD'VE BEEN A BIG WINTER STORM. SAME THING THIS TIME,JUST RAIN! MAYBE SOMEONE COULD EXPLAIN THE PERFECT SET-UP FOR A BIG SNOW FOR THE RIVER VALLEY?
Way to go guys..I was skeptic but I now know why I tune in 29/40 first. You guys hit it right on...hyperdrv5
Why does it sound like this blog is a pissing match between the other stations. I could care less what "the other media outlets" and the weatherservice says
Gotta love the weather wannabees and weather weenies
Apparently people do care or else they wouldn't be on here every few minutes wanting their voice to be heard, including yours.
(posted earlier) now at 1:48 pm ...West Fork at 1900 ft ice is starting to coat Trees, Cars, and other above ground objects such as the sides of the house, garage etc...just an update
A Big Snowstorm in the River Valley and Northwest Arkansas would be like the one in late January 2000 when Ft. Smith got a foot of snow....i dont know what the dynamics of that storm were but it was sure a beauty....
River Valley 3 in snow/sleet mix.
I just wish that everone could be wrong about the snow just once! Where they forcast 3-4" of snow and it ends up there beung a foot on the ground! That would be awsome.
You need to move north....better chance for snow.
"I watch both stations for weather .. just to see what they have to say and how different they are. Lewis has been saying all week it was going to have freezing precip .. 40/29 has been saying nothing .. until now. I thought "standing firm" meant something "
And Lewis has changed his story many times, along with the Weather Circus...props to him for standing firm, and most importantly, being wrong. That's being intelligent.
yeah and none of the Ch 5 guys can claim to have been part of a crappy jazz band!
http://www.trianglerock.com/bigphoto.php?actor_ID=6&images_ID=6
Zarras is the guy on the drums... I think he has an afro lol
http://www.thebuskers.com/images/ted.jpg
Zarras looking cool as a cat.
Actually Lewis has been calling for a wintry mix since tuesday according to 5's blog posting
And 3 to 6 inches of snow...have you obviously haven't been watching him...oh wait, sure you have, considering you probably work at 5. KFSM has been totally wrong. Read Flickinger's latest update...5 is still calling for several inches of snow.
Greetings and salutations
Just launched and update...
KEEP THE FORECASTS COMING AND THANKS FOR KEEPING THE FOCUS ON *W*E*A*T*H*E*R*
"yeah and none of the Ch 5 guys can claim to have been part of a crappy jazz band!"
Does Ted being in a band have anything to do with the winter weather? This isn't the place for that.
Now at 4:26 pm 1900 ft near West Fork, ice continues to build up on trees, sidewalks, cars are plastered with ice, as well as all other above ground objects...Even the driveway rocks are slick...just an update...
I have to say I watch both stations during big winter events. I have kept up on both 40/29's weather blog along with KFSM's....but what I don't understand is why KFSM has the ability to edit people's posts? It doesn't seem like people post anything on the KFSM blog...at least this one has people going regularly and making comments.
Hey, just for clarification... never had an afro, it's just a shadow.
Though if I had the hair to do it with maybe I would have tried! ;)
Can't let the "crappy jazz band" comment go by either. I'm real proud of my drumming on the self titled release of "The Countdown Quartet". Modern Drummer magazine gave it 9 out of 10 stars. Check it out at a multitude of national online sites where you can pick up discs.
~Cheers
KFSM's blog also logs the IP address, it's a running joke at the station everytime a "Hearst" appears.
The joke seems to be your blog...nobody is posting anything. Way to drive people to your web. I did like the latest update by garrett though..still a possibilty of 5 inches of snow in Benton county. Maybe he needs to step outside...
If you would like we can start pulling maps from the past few years comparing 40/29's snowfall predictions to the observed snowfall. Now that is some funny stuff. Snowfall is still likely in NW Ark so wait till tomorrow to proclaim 40/29 correct. Where's Drewbot btw?
It's currently 34.6*F in Booneville and dropping(yay!!) So maybe we still have a chance in the river valley!
LKTFOW
LET"S KEEP THE FOCUS ON WEATHER!
As posted earlier when someone else "inquired"... unfortunately there was a death in Drew's family.
He's well and our thoughts and prayers go out to him and his family.
"If you would like we can start pulling maps from the past few years comparing 40/29's snowfall predictions to the observed snowfall. "
I'm sure people care about 2 years ago...how about right now.
let's face it,this should'nt be much of a suprise for the river valley, maybe next time
The above poster said it best...maybe next time.
Does anyone have the correct temp for the Ozark area?
To 40/29 weather Team!
I think you are all doing a wonderful job! You have a hard job to do & to keep us informed. The forcast is going to change guys from time to time as that is what the weather does and the 40/29 weather team has to change it on occasion to keep you updated on the changes in the weather. Give them so credit,They are doing a great job! Even if the weather says 100% chance,one change in direction,atmosphere itc, the forcast can change! Just like we have seen with this storm.
Thank you 40/29 for always doing your best to keep us updated!
PS,
Leave your negativity at the Door! This is about weather not a jazz band,afro or why drew is not here. No one is any place to make remarks negative to anyone.
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