Saturday, January 13, 2007
ICE STORM UPDATE
No doubt about it, temperatures are slowly starting to fall, especially across NW AR. Today we have watched a surface low allow for some warmer surface temperatures; however, as that low departs to the northeast, our winds will back, and colder air will spill south.
Trees and powerlines have already taken a beating across western Benton county along with a good majority of northeastern Oklahoma. Temperatures will remain below freezing tonight, with light freezing drizzle possible. Travel is not advised!
In the short term, expect temperatures to drop close to freezing across NW AR this evening, allowing for spotty freezing rain. Light precipitation may fall overnight, but we're only expecting more of a light freezing drizzle. Freezing rain will be a big problem for Sunday afternoon, creating travel issues across northwest Arkansas. A quarter of an inch to an inch of ice is still forecast for Sunday.
Throughout the River Valley expect temperatures by morning to hover close to freezing. Mainly light drizzle will fall overnight, but some spots could see some patchy freezing drizzle. Heavy rain will develop again for Sunday afternoon, and if temperatures are around freezing, the River Valley may experience periods of freezing rain toward Sunday evening. A tenth of an inch to a half inch of ice is forecast by Sunday night.
Trees and powerlines have already taken a beating across western Benton county along with a good majority of northeastern Oklahoma. Temperatures will remain below freezing tonight, with light freezing drizzle possible. Travel is not advised!
In the short term, expect temperatures to drop close to freezing across NW AR this evening, allowing for spotty freezing rain. Light precipitation may fall overnight, but we're only expecting more of a light freezing drizzle. Freezing rain will be a big problem for Sunday afternoon, creating travel issues across northwest Arkansas. A quarter of an inch to an inch of ice is still forecast for Sunday.
Throughout the River Valley expect temperatures by morning to hover close to freezing. Mainly light drizzle will fall overnight, but some spots could see some patchy freezing drizzle. Heavy rain will develop again for Sunday afternoon, and if temperatures are around freezing, the River Valley may experience periods of freezing rain toward Sunday evening. A tenth of an inch to a half inch of ice is forecast by Sunday night.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 3:17 PM
21 Comments:
If this ice was supposed to happen, it would have already. NAM shows temps droping sunday evening, but precip will be moving out, and when its a race with precip and cold air, precip normaly moves out before cold air makes it. Another bust like so many other storms.. Only people that liked this forecast was the grocery stores and hardware stores. Maybe Ted or someone can explain better why this 'ice' is still expected.
With 3 consecutive fronts in 3 days, its better to be safe than sorry. Besides, we all need better disaster preparedness, weather related or not. Muskogee family members (80 miles SW) are without power as of 1700 today, and days to go. Everyone should be checking on the elderly!
I'd much rather the weathermen err on the side of caution. Imagine how upset we'd be if Drew had said this would be a rain event only, and then we wound up with half an inch of ice. Besides, why would anyone complain about there possibly being no ice?
Howdy,
The usual set up typically is this; warm and rainy, FROPA (Frontal Passage), and then maybe just maybe a little lingering precipitation wrapping around a system. Make this a winter scenario and you bet; more often than not we get nada, el zilcho, a cold and sunny day in the systems wake.
This set up is a bit different. We're on the edge of some of the coldest air that's moved into the country this year. Several disturbances are moving ahead of and around the upper level low, which is still way out west. The thought and feature that’s likely to bring in the probable ice event is a wave that's been showing up progressively on upper air charts at 700mb. There's been a kink in the flow first near the Gulf of California and then on the Mexican Plateau and most recently in South Western Texas. This wave is also showing up rather nicely on water vapor imagery and is pulling in Pacific moisture and will likely tap into the Gulf fetch soon. Precipitation is just now starting to show up on radar south of Abilene.
The 18Z of the GFS went a little gang busters with this and spits out over an inch of precipitation. Yes, the NAM had it a little south but a check on the vertical profile as proged by the NAM has Fort Smith saturated up to 18,000 feet with a pocket of below freezing temps up to 940mb.
This one is going to be close! The time frame of Sunday afternoon into the early AM of Sunday still is looking good.
On a side note…
The best sledding I ever did was after an ice storm. Metal runner sled + Golf Course = FUN! But, now I drive and for a multitude of reasons ice is more of a headache than not. But, if you’re off from school and can sneak onto an ice-covered fairway with a moderate but constant grade then there's nothing better!
...correction!
The time frame of Sunday afternoon into the early AM of "Monday" still is looking good.
I want to thank all of you for posting. This blog is great for learning and information, and we hope that you will come back and post. I can assure all of you that I would never go on air and do something for "ratings". The entire team has been mulling over data for the last week trying to narrow down and fine tune the forecast. I live here too, in fact, my wife is always asking me about the nasty winter weather, so I have a huge critic to face when I go home, ha ha.
Benton, Cherokee, Adair, and Delaware counties have been smacked with ice with many trees down creating power outages. Folks have been without power for hours......It will be a close call for tomorrow, but if the cold air meets the moisture, the River Valley will have issues! the latest information support between a quarter of an inch to three-fourths of an inch of ice throughout Sunday evening across NW AR. The River Valley could see between a tenth of an inch to a half an inch of ice by Monday morning.
Monday morning looks to be very slick and hazardous!
I want to thank the Weather Crew at 40/29 for being on the ball with where and when the ice would start to form.
I live just to the north of the NWArkansas Regional Airport and the Freezing Rain started to accumulate on the trees and high wire lines around 2000hrs Friday. This ice build up continued well into Saturday and by 1500hrs, we were without power. Then around 1830hrs we had power, then we didn't, then we did... Anyway, my family and neighbors are prepared and just love sitting around listening to the trees break under the wieght of all the ice on them. Sounds like gunfire at times. WIth more of this frozen stuff on the way in for Sunday, I suspect we'll experience more moments of no power as more trees take down more power lines. I'm just happy I'm not in southern Gravette .... those poor folks will be without power for nearly 24 hours before they might get their lights and heat back on.
I have 31 degrees, but that temp is sure to rise when the next wave gets here.
Western Fayettevile is now experiencing their first sign of below freezing temps. For exapmle, the tree in my front yard has a very thin layer of ice on it. The water drops are now frozen. The main concern presently is freezing fog. With the second wave of this storm just pushing off, it has obviously allowed the colder temps to pull in. Now with the third wave on it's way, we very well could be instore for more ice to come if the temps hold. My thought... don't bash the weather guys just yet, the worst is by far yet to come!
I live in Spiro, Ok and work in Fort Smith. My home is total electric. Do you see any problems in the future in my area?
Geez, is Fort Smith always in a bubble or what? I'm not complaining because ice storms are no fun, but for years I've seen the river valley just on the edge of all kinds of systems. Most of the time, NWA gets it, but sometimes it moves south into the Ouachitas. But for some reason, winter systems seem to break up just as they are arriving or they split or the temperatures stay north of 32. I'm ready for some snow!
I'd like to see SOME SNOW too...but not the ice. I'm just beginning to worry about ice in Spiro since my home is total electric and travel conditions for Monday ---since i work in Fort Smith.
I know our western counties have been hit hard, I hope they are safe this night.
My last ice storm was in 2000 - Polk County, Mena AR - 3" of solid Freezing rain in less than 48hrs. We were left without power for 2-1/2 weeks. My home was all electric and was totally in habitable after the 1st day. My suggestion, if you loose power for an extended period of time, make sure you leave a water faucet running with a steady drip. Pipes can freeze very quickly, especially if there is no heat source in your home. Next, find somewhere to go that has a heat source & seek shelter fast. Any iceing event is serious! Suprisingly, it does not take much ice either to bring down power lines. If all we get this weekend is 1/4", we could be in for a long go. Let's just hope that the lights stay on and all are safe no matter what happens!
- western fayettville observer
Frz mist in the river valley? Maybe.. if you call northern Sequoyah county river valley.
I have 30.2 with mist, and noticed there is a very very think glaze of ice on my car. Looks like I could be in for it if temps are like this when the big precip is here.
Why hasn't this been updated?? The last time was 3:17PM Saturday..This is Sunday Morning. Is there nothing new to report?
I will have a new post out shortly with my updated thinking on this winter storm. We have also been givng short weather updates on our homepage all this morning.
at 10 am in spiro. still just wet and cold. i need to make a trip to fort smith (should take 2-3 hours to complete). will i have time for this and still make it home without travel problems?
You should be fine...later on this afternoon may become a problem..the next few hours will remain above freezing.
Drew Michaels
Funny temp here has went for 29 to 33 in one hour? And I thought it was supposed to get colder? It was frz out, now its not.
We are another HUGE fan of 40/29! They are always on the ball and do the best possible for us. We live in NW Arkansas(Holiday Island) and really listen to them.
We have had cold rain off and on all day. The deck was frozen this morning (dogs sliding around on it) and the robins were on a feeding frenzy yesterday - literally like the "Birds" movie. Hubby says they are preparing themselves for some cold weather.
Anyways...we'll post more later when the temps drop. Getting the candles out & making dinner early just in case...the freeze could be interesting to say the least!
Thanks 40/29!!
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