Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Latest on the Weekend Winter Weather
Here's the latest on our weekend winter weather situation. Precipitation will start out as rain on Friday with many locations receiving 1 to 3 inches throughout the weekend. Rain will persist through Saturday; however, the big question remains, when will the rain change to freezing rain?
The computer models continue to zone in on the cold air moving in by Sunday. Unfortunately, the models have trouble when it comes to forecasting the depth and the timing of a shallow cold air mass, so we are banking on a faster solution at this point. Looking at previous storms, we feel the timing of the cold air is most likely toward Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will fall throughout the day on Saturday!
Ice accumulations could be a factor, and this would likely create travel issues for Saturday night, mostly across northwest Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma. Cold air aloft will change any freezing rain over to sleet and eventually snow for Sunday.
The computer models continue to zone in on the cold air moving in by Sunday. Unfortunately, the models have trouble when it comes to forecasting the depth and the timing of a shallow cold air mass, so we are banking on a faster solution at this point. Looking at previous storms, we feel the timing of the cold air is most likely toward Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will fall throughout the day on Saturday!
Ice accumulations could be a factor, and this would likely create travel issues for Saturday night, mostly across northwest Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma. Cold air aloft will change any freezing rain over to sleet and eventually snow for Sunday.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 3:24 PM
6 Comments:
Hello Drew
I know the models have a rough time when it comes to shallow cold for sure, It could really set up to where the Oklahoma counties have ice/sleet for hours before the rest of the area.
Drew,All I can say is let winter come,Finally!!I hope the river valley is not left out!
Sounds like we have a few winter weather fans....I love the snow, but the ice I can easily do without! The shallow cold air is going to be tricky...but my thinking remains the same...teps will drop Saturday!
Drew,
Our terrain isn't really conducive to shallow cold air moving over us so quickly. I'm thinking most recently of the Late November Ice Storm of '06. However, I think the models are showing the strength of this cold air to be of a higher magnitude -- am I right?
You bring up a great forecasting problem.....how do you judge the cold air when the computer model's resolution doesn't account for cold air that becomes held up by mtn. terrain???? We look at past events which say the models are too slow with the arctic air.
The models are actually holding the surface cold air further north by each run, so that brings up the question....why are the models placing the surface cold air too far North?
We're now just starting to see what the NAM's solution is...so over the next 24 hours we'll have a better idea of the placement of the cold air.
I'm still going with the Saturday night time frame across NE OK and NW AR.....keeping the freezing rain threat north of the River Valley for Saturday night.
I agree. I feel, based on the latest model runs and what progress the front is actually making seems to suggest that a transition will occur somewhere between 18Z and 00Z on Saturday -- most likely with whatever insolation we manage on Saturday, my bet is closest to late Saturday afternoon . . . However, time will tell. Also, I checked Great Falls temperature this morning, which was -3 degrees F. Plus, there is a minor amount of snowpack over which the cold air is moving. I think the Winter Storm Watch posted by the NWS in Tulsa was the right maneuver -- time will tell if it should be an Ice Storm Warning, however. Nevertheless, any amount of ice will likely be compounded by the winds -- the isobars on the models are tightly packed, so we should have some pretty stiff surface winds. Look forward to your thoughts and to your forecast tonight!!
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