Temperatures at 5000 feet

Air circulations just above the earth to about 5000 feet are influenced greatly by the friction of the Earth’s surface. Eddies of air continually bring air down to the surface and also transport it upwards in the vertical. By looking at air temperatures at the top of this column, which correlates closely to an atmospheric pressure of 850 millibars (mb), we can get a ball park idea of probable highs and lows by bringing the air down to the surface and accounting for compressional heating as well as other factors including: winds, cloud cover and ground cover (snow, dry soil, wet soil, etc. etc.)

With this understanding, air temps at 850mb late into the upcoming weekend look to be around -12 to -15 degrees Celsius. Converted to degrees Fahrenheit this is 10 to 5 degree air! Now brought down to the surface it will warm, but we could still be looking at overnight lows Monday and Tuesday of next week in the upper single digits and low teens across the area. Sunday is still looking like the day that a mix of cold air and moisture will take place. To what capacity and where the freezing line will set up is still uncertain, though any frozen precipitation that falls is likely to remain on the ground at least for the start of next week.

This is tricky forecasting at its finest and we will be constantly adjusting the extended outlook as new information becomes available.

Meteorologist Ted Zarras

Posted by Ted Zarras at 8:15 AM