Thursday, January 18, 2007
Is The Weather Service Changing Their Thinking?
Our thinking remains the same. The best snow accumulations look to be toward I-44, with most of the area seeing a mix of rain/sleet/snow with only minor accumulations across northwest Arkansas.
I have attached two posts from the National Weather Service from today. The first was from this morning...and the second was during the late evening. It's funny how the weather service is now starting to change their tune. I think they jumped on this way too early...I'll let you post your comments, and you can tell us what you think. Read and enjoy!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 AM CST THU JAN 18 2007.
DISCUSSION......WINTER WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT APPEARS THAT INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER EVENT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF FA AS UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST...LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT/STRENGTH OF UPPER FEATURES HOWEVER THE NAM/WRF SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH WITH UPPER LOW TRACK AND DEVELOPS LESS PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVELS. ITAPPEARS THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TIMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.FORECAST POINT SOUNDING INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF A MLC/FSM LINE...WITH A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER. WARM LAYER ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 1 TO 2 DEG C AT MOST AND THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT PARTIAL MELTING WITH LESS OF A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED TO THIS WEEKENDS ICE STORM (WARM LAYER WAS AROUND 10 DEGC). AREAS OF SNOW/SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 EXPECT TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES. SOUTH OFA MLC/FSM LINE DUE TO THE SNOW/SLEET MIX EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES...HOWEVER THIS COULD FALL MAINLY AS SLEET AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE AWINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN THE EXACT STRENGTH/TRACK OF UPPER LOW AND DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE WARM LAYER PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. HEAVY SNOW EVENT WOULD BECOME EVEN MORE LIKELY IF UPPER LOW TRACK IS ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE GFS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007.
UPDATE...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. WIND IS ALSO LIGHT AND MAINLYFROM THE NORTHWEST. UPDATED THE ZONES TO FRESHEN THE SKYCOVER WORDING. PARTLY CLOUDY WILL DUE AS THERE WILL LIKELYBE THIN SPOTS. GOING LOWS LOOKED GOOD AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM.STILL WATCHING THE STORM FOR THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANTPRECIPITATION EVENT WILL OCCUR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTYABOUT PRECIP TYPE. THE WRF IS WARMER AND DRIER AND THE GFSIS COOLER AND MORE MOIST. IF THE WRF IS RIGHT...ALONG ANDSOUTH OF A MLC-FSM LINE WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FORA COLD RAIN AND SLEET. THE GFS WOULD SAY SNOW. TULSAWILL LIKELY SEE SNOW NO MATTER WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT.THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS O.K. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ANDTHE POTENTAIL FOR WINTER WEATHER. HAVE NOT CHANGED THEFORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT THE MID SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT IT.
I have attached two posts from the National Weather Service from today. The first was from this morning...and the second was during the late evening. It's funny how the weather service is now starting to change their tune. I think they jumped on this way too early...I'll let you post your comments, and you can tell us what you think. Read and enjoy!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 AM CST THU JAN 18 2007.
DISCUSSION......WINTER WEATHER AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT APPEARS THAT INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER EVENT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF FA AS UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST...LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT/STRENGTH OF UPPER FEATURES HOWEVER THE NAM/WRF SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH WITH UPPER LOW TRACK AND DEVELOPS LESS PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVELS. ITAPPEARS THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TIMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.FORECAST POINT SOUNDING INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF A MLC/FSM LINE...WITH A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER. WARM LAYER ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 1 TO 2 DEG C AT MOST AND THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT PARTIAL MELTING WITH LESS OF A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED TO THIS WEEKENDS ICE STORM (WARM LAYER WAS AROUND 10 DEGC). AREAS OF SNOW/SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 EXPECT TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES. SOUTH OFA MLC/FSM LINE DUE TO THE SNOW/SLEET MIX EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES...HOWEVER THIS COULD FALL MAINLY AS SLEET AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE AWINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN THE EXACT STRENGTH/TRACK OF UPPER LOW AND DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE WARM LAYER PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. HEAVY SNOW EVENT WOULD BECOME EVEN MORE LIKELY IF UPPER LOW TRACK IS ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE GFS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007.
UPDATE...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. WIND IS ALSO LIGHT AND MAINLYFROM THE NORTHWEST. UPDATED THE ZONES TO FRESHEN THE SKYCOVER WORDING. PARTLY CLOUDY WILL DUE AS THERE WILL LIKELYBE THIN SPOTS. GOING LOWS LOOKED GOOD AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM.STILL WATCHING THE STORM FOR THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANTPRECIPITATION EVENT WILL OCCUR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTYABOUT PRECIP TYPE. THE WRF IS WARMER AND DRIER AND THE GFSIS COOLER AND MORE MOIST. IF THE WRF IS RIGHT...ALONG ANDSOUTH OF A MLC-FSM LINE WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FORA COLD RAIN AND SLEET. THE GFS WOULD SAY SNOW. TULSAWILL LIKELY SEE SNOW NO MATTER WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT.THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS O.K. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ANDTHE POTENTAIL FOR WINTER WEATHER. HAVE NOT CHANGED THEFORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT THE MID SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT IT.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:42 PM
11 Comments:
Im not to surprised. But the GFS still has some hope for some snow around here. I-40 north still has a shot. I hope that being in the hills around here will help out. Its happened before.
you talk like youve never had it wrong before.....you guys are known for being the ones to be the ones that way over shoot the snow predictions...... hopefully since for once you are saying a smaller amount than everyone else, this brings us 12"!!!! :)
I still think its going to snow in the rivervalley...
I think the 40/29 weather guys do a good job, predicting Arkansas weather is probably the toughest area to tackle in the U.S. People can always get a weather rock before Saturday night hits, just toss it out your front door, wait a few moments and retrieve it, then see below. If your rock is:
Dry and warm: Weather is dry and warm
Dry and cold: Weather is dry and cold
Wet: Rain
Frozen: Sleet/Ice
Snow covered: Snowing
Blows away: Tornado
Black and charred: Thunderstorm
Vanishes: Earthquake
I'll have an update out in the next hour though our thinking hasn't changed and REGARDLESS of other media outlets and the NWS, we are sticking to our thinking, mainly a sleet/rain mix along and south of 1-40 with light accumulations possible north and west of 1-40 with the best shot of a few inches of snow/sleet in northwest Benton county, McDonald county, and Delaware counties.
Justin Povick
Sunrise Meteorologist
what really stinks is that L.A CA.can get snow but we cant,somethimgs wrong with this picture..
I'm from Booneville and I wondering how tall the cold air will be and how cold. If it's really tall and realy cold the River Vally will get alot of snow, but if shallow and warm then we will just get a cold hard rain. It just depens on those factors.
I hope you are prepared to be very wrong. Well, I guess you would be prepared for that since you are wrong a lot.
I hope you are prepared to be very wrong. Well, I guess you would be prepared for that since you are wrong a lot.
The profile for an all snow event continues to dwindle. (I personally would love to see two feet on the ground!) It’s just not looking good. The model data of this latest run (12Z) still offer different solutions; the GFS still colder and snowier though warming, and then the NAM, which is still warm, offering a rain solution with the exception of the onset of the precipitation Saturday evening. Just a note… NAM model usually lags timing wise in overrunning situations by some four hours. As has been preached for some time now, d(model) / d(t) is getting warmer.
The 540 line or 5400 meter thickness that supports a columns average temperature of 0 degrees remains almost exclusively north of our area throughout the entire event. Soundings out of Little Rock and OK City are isothermal (temp is not changing with height) this morning too. Need more cold air…ok throw in the cowbell too!
The present tune, although not the most joyful if you want the stuff that sleds were made for, still holds the most validity.
The 540 line is not a definitive predictor of anything. Two days ago the 540 line was in Missouri/Kansas yet it was snowing/sleeting in Dallas and even much farther south. Hopefully, you are looking at other thickness heights as well. Also, The NAM is still warmer but the 6z has cooled about 5 degrees from the 0z (from 43 to 35). The GFS has remained much more steady on the evolution of this event and therefore should be the one with more cred.
Post a Comment
<< Home