FOCUS ON STORM POTENTIAL

We’re capped over right now by a steady advection of warm moist air aloft that has pushed in throughout the night. The sun is strong this time of year though and with enough sunshine, by the early afternoon we’re likely to see convection develop across a stalled boundary, draped horizontally just north of the River Valley, loosely paralleling I-40.


The map above is of downdraft cape. This highlights regions where gusty downdrafts may occur. As thunderstorms begin to drop precipitation at the end of the mature stage of development, evaporation takes place. This is a cooling process. This air, cooler and denser than the surrounding environment, can fall like a rock. A dry layer in the atmosphere further adds to cooling and ultimately wind speed as thunderstorms die-out or collapse.

There are some high values horizontally situated across NE OK and NW AR. Like yesterday we'll look for afternoon heating to initiate activity and we'll be monitoring developments closely for the potential of some gusty winds.

Posted by Ted Zarras at 9:50 AM