Happy 4th of July everybody! If you read Ted's blog below, we're finally saying goodbye to a pesky cut off low, but now we look to the north for more chances for showers and storms. The picture above depicts a cold front that's sparking off strong to severe showers and storms across Kansas and Missouri this 4th of July. Overnight, we'll watch this boundary move south, and eventually set up across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Thursday afternoon.

This front will be our new focus for afternoon shower and storm activity. I have included a CAPE forecast above for Thursday afternoon. Sunshine and moisture will combine to produce CAPE values from 2,000-3,000 J/KG. This leads me to believe that large hail could be an issue with the strongest storms. Large CAPE values represent the ability for an air parcel to rise rapidly within the atmosphere; moreover, strong rising air currents have the potential to support large hail stone growth!

The computer models also hint at some dry air aloft, which could lead to strong gusty downdrafts. The Skew-T plot shows this dry layer from roughly 10,000ft to 18,000ft. We'll watch the storms closely on Thursday afternoon.