Thursday, July 05, 2007

Almost Identical Days.....Some Forecasting Tips





This is what Ted and I call a persistence forecast. We're hardly changing at all, and that's a huge key when you're forecasting the weather. Everyday you need to ask yourself, is the atmosphere going through a change? If there is no major change in air mass or overall pattern, then you'll likely see a repeat performance.


Heading into Friday, our dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s, creating heavy rainfall potential yet again. The upper level feature to our south isn't forecast to move a whole lot, so more high level clouds from 700 to 500 mb will exist south of I-40, limiting high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s; however, more widespread showers and storms will be possible across SE OK and SW AR due to their proximity to the upper level feature. Look at the comparison above from Thursday to Friday....the low isn't really moving!


The stalled out frontal boundary will hang around for Friday afternoon, so expect more afternoon showers and storms capable of small hail and gusty winds near the vicinity of the front. The warmest part of the area will remain across NE OK with more available sunshine.

Posted by Drew Michaels at 8:19 PM

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