Welcome to summer, well, not really, but today's jetstream position is where you would typically find it during the late summer months. As I always say, the severe weather threat remains the highest near the jetsream's upper level support, so why are we under the gun for Tuesday?

Tomorrow the SPC has a good majority of our area under a slight risk; however, I don't necessarily agree with this thinking. I can understand the upper Midwest being contained in the slight risk because of their proximity to the jetstream, but our area's lacking the cold pool aloft, so organized severe weather will be unlikely for Tuesday.

A frontal boundary will create the necessary lift for storms, but the timing of the front is everything, and the computer models take the front across NE OK and NW AR around noon. You don't typically expect severe weather along a cold front at that time of the day.

The greatest severe threat for our area will exist across SE OK and SW AR. Frontal timing will be delayed more toward the late afternoon/early evening, so destabilizing sunshine, combined with the frontal passage could create strong gusty winds and small hail. CAPE values look to run between 1500-2000, along with LI values from -4 to -5 south of I-40 by Tuesday afternoon. There will be a cap to contend with as well, which could limit some storm development.

Significant wind shear will be absent from the atmosphere, so we won't see the rotating updrafts capable of producing large hail.

We'll continue to watch the atmosphere closely on Tuesday, but we're not anticipating widespread severe weather to erupt.