5:30PM Update

We often talk about a "lid" or a "cap" holding off thunderstorm development. Such has been the case for today... as of now. All the blue shadings on the map above represent areas where a substantial temperature inversion ( a rise in temperature with height or perhaps a steady temperature with height) exists. The blue shaded areas are also known as and referred to as CIN, which is short for Convective Inhibition or a limiting factor opposing rising motion. As long as this cap holds, which will be the case through the early evening, thunderstorm activity will be low. A strong jetstreak will be moving our way throughout the course of the later evening and this region of very fast winds will help mix up this area of CIN, "busting" the cap. Once that happens, thunderstorm activity will ensue, perhaps at an explosive pace. We're anticipating the window of activity to be 9:00 PM through early Saturday morning.

A warm front draped across AR and OK will likely be the focal point for some intense thunderstorms. Just to the north of this boundary, by early tomorrow morning, heavy rain may pose a localized flooding threat. We'll be monitoring developments closely throughout the night.

Posted by Ted Zarras at 2:46 PM