Overnight our computer model guidance suggests a developing complex of storms (MCS) moving out of Kansas and into NE OK and NW AR. This possible MCS could move into our area after 3 a.m. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds from 50 to 60 mph are possible with this complex. This will likely impact areas north of I-40 by Monday morning, and quickly fizzle out after the sun comes up.

We've been dominated by this ridge of high pressure; however, around the ridge small disturbances are carried SE, and if a surface boundary exists, organized nocturnal complexes of storms develop as the low level jet increases after sundown. Look at the correlation between the low level jet, and our upper level disturbance below. They are focused right over the same area!

Since the atmosphere will remain unstable on Monday afternoon, outflow boundaries, along with a lingering MCV could spark off more showers and storms toward peak heating hours. More isolated severe weather will be possible south of I-40.

So what is an MCV? An MCV is a leftover mesoscale circulation that is typically found within nocturnal thunderstorms. The storms wouldn't remain organized if they didn't develop this circulation, in fact, you can look at it more like an engine that balances the warm and cold air.

The MCV is a small area of vorticity, or low pressure, that serves as a focus for more storms during the afternoon. You can usually pick these guys out on satellite by their swirling appearance. The graphic below is a picture of what the model is depicting by noon on Monday. Notice the area of vorticity. This is a 0-3KM shear image, which shows the MCV's rotation.