We remain quiet across Oklahoma and Arkansas right now; however, central Oklahoma remains a hot spot for strong to severe storm initiation over the next several hours. A shortwave trough is now entering the panhandle of Oklahoma, and with cold air aloft, this shortwave should break the cap, and allow storms to fire after 8 p.m. CAPE values are running extremely high ahead of the dryline, so this untapped atmosphere is ready to explode. EHI values are running high from 5 to 6 in this area. In general, EHI values over 2 indicate a strong correlation between rotating supercell thunderstorms that produce tornadoes, so there's not a question on why a tornado watch was issued.

Plenty of convective inhibition still exists across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, so we're not expecting storms to fire this evening. Close to midnight will be our best chance as the cold front to our NW starts to head southeast toward the 40/29 viewing area. Our greatest severe weather threat will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.