Position and timing is everything when it comes to severe weather. What looked like a potentially dangerous severe weather day, may now actually turn out to be more of a heavy rain event. No complaints here, bring on the rain! Now, with that being said, we're still going to watch Friday closely.

The warm front is forecast to basically hang over the Red River, keeping the real deep moisture and warmth to our south. If the warm front moves further north than expected, then SE OK and SW AR will end up being in a moderate risk for severe storms. The warm front will provide the tornado focus by Friday afternoon and evening, so my thought is that north Texas and Louisiana will be targeted.

The dynamics to this system remain very impressive. The turning of winds with height known as "wind shear" is off the charts, especially along the warm front. Deep moisture convergence, and a screaming jet streak make a severe weather outbreak likely, but not here.

For us, we'll be north of the warm front, which means steady rain and embedded storms. The winds will be howling from the east, with temperatures only climbing into the 50s. We can expect anywhere from .50" of rain to 1.50" by Saturday morning. We desperately need a surplus of rain before we get into the summer months.