Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Winds of Change....Friday's Severe Weather?
You could definitely feel the winds of change in the air on Wednesday. Winds gusted over 40 mph in many locations, downing trees in saturated soils, as a tight pressure gradient engulfed the area. That same system was also responsible for heavy snowfall across portions of the Midwest. Welcome to April! As we say goodbye to our last weather maker, we watch another one coming our way for Friday.
This next storm could turn out to be more of a rain maker than a severe weather maker across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas; however, we're keeping our eyes on SE OK and SW AR for a significant severe weather threat. Why will only our southern counties see the chance for significant storms? The answer lies in the position of the warm front.
Typically, a trough will start to lift as it moves east out of the southwest of the U.S., racing a surface low to the northeast. Our area tends to become warm sectored, and if enough instability exists, we'll rapidly develop severe weather. The Friday storm looks different. Instead of lifting, the trough is forecast to dig, creating a surface low that will ride east along the Red River. We're expecting the warm front to set up somewhere across SE OK and SW AR, which is pretty far south.
The warm front is a very interesting place to be during the spring. North of the front will typically experience embedded storms and heavy rainfall; however, along the boundary itself, extreme turning of the winds will occur, creating a favorable environment for tornadoes. Storms that form along the warm front will have the potential to rotate and produce tornadoes. Think of all the winds spiraling into the surface low. It will be a heavily sheared environment.
The key on Friday will be to locate the actual position of the front, and determine just how far north it will go. I have noticed the NAM likes to advect the front too far north, but my gut says the warm front will stay south of the River Valley. Temperatures across NW AR may only be in the 50s on Friday! We'll continue to update you on this developing storm system.
This next storm could turn out to be more of a rain maker than a severe weather maker across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas; however, we're keeping our eyes on SE OK and SW AR for a significant severe weather threat. Why will only our southern counties see the chance for significant storms? The answer lies in the position of the warm front.
Typically, a trough will start to lift as it moves east out of the southwest of the U.S., racing a surface low to the northeast. Our area tends to become warm sectored, and if enough instability exists, we'll rapidly develop severe weather. The Friday storm looks different. Instead of lifting, the trough is forecast to dig, creating a surface low that will ride east along the Red River. We're expecting the warm front to set up somewhere across SE OK and SW AR, which is pretty far south.
The warm front is a very interesting place to be during the spring. North of the front will typically experience embedded storms and heavy rainfall; however, along the boundary itself, extreme turning of the winds will occur, creating a favorable environment for tornadoes. Storms that form along the warm front will have the potential to rotate and produce tornadoes. Think of all the winds spiraling into the surface low. It will be a heavily sheared environment.
The key on Friday will be to locate the actual position of the front, and determine just how far north it will go. I have noticed the NAM likes to advect the front too far north, but my gut says the warm front will stay south of the River Valley. Temperatures across NW AR may only be in the 50s on Friday! We'll continue to update you on this developing storm system.
Posted by Drew Michaels at 9:29 PM
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