We're watching a pretty stout cold front to our north which looks to bring a chance for some showers and storms on Tuesday, and some cooler changes to our weather. Temperatures this time of the year should be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, but over the past week, we've been enjoying above average highs; however, after this front passes through, we'll experience below average temperatures all the way into the Easter weekend.

Let's talk about storm chances for Tuesday. Look for a pretty substantial cap aloft to exist in our atmosphere from all of the warm air advection, with that being said, we'll need a lot of surface heating ahead of the front to lift the air mass. The best chance for this to occur will remain south of I-40. This area will have the greatest potential for maximized surface heating before the frontal passage. If the cap can be broken, look for CAPE values to exceed 2,000, which could result in large hail. Storms won't be sticking around though, so if you're lucky, you could see some brief heavy rain before the front clears your area. Rain chances from north to south are only running around 30%-40%.

Aloft, we'll see a blocking pattern set up toward the end of the week, which will allow an area of low pressure to deepen across the northeast. This dominant low will send reinforcing shots of colder air our way throughout the weekend. More to come on the colder weather!