500mb FLOW

g 500mb Flow 12Z Tuesday

g 500mb flow 12Z Wednesday

Our pattern has been quiet for awhile now. The last measurable bout of rain occurred on October 22nd when Fayetteville picked up .67" and Fort Smith received .42". We're now going on two and a half weeks of next to nothing and look to remain dry into the top half of next week. The maps above highlight a quiet hemispherical flow and a block to our west. A broad ridge has developed over the Eastern Pacific and western half of the country with a closed Low spinning off the southern coast of California. This type of pattern is often referred to as a "Rex Block" and can remain in place for days. It usually takes a sharp trough of low pressure with some jet energy to bust the block. As of now this does not look to happen for several days.

Yesterday, long range data suggested that by Monday a wave would be knocking on our door with the promise of some rain , though now a slower solution, more along the Tuesday time-frame looks apparent and plausible too, with the block in place. We're monitoring developments closely, as a few long range forecasting models have suggested a potential strong to severe weather set-up depending on the storm track.

Posted by Ted Zarras at 3:30 PM