Friday Morning MCC

Due to the positioning of the jetstreak rounding the base of the trough in the east, the area within the red ellipse is a favored region for upper level divergence or a spreading out of winds aloft. This infers surface convergence and lift. As we've discussed before, there are two meteorological "sweet spots" with all jetstreaks; one in the right entrance region and the other in the left exit region of the jet. Forces become out of balance when wind enters a jetstreak and counterclockwise circulation develops in the vertical at the entrance region. Air converges at the surface on the right hand side which a causes lift. In the map above, an upper air forecast chart for midnight tomorrow, this area is over Kansas.

This mid-level chart highlights a disturbance some six hours later than the above chart, situated over eastern Oklahoma. This trough will help in sustaining convection and thunderstorm development. Once initial activity develops, sometime in the late evening tomorrow, outflow from individual cells will help form new thunderstorms,until a large area of heavy rain and thunderstorm activity is joined together in a complex. These nocturnal self-sustaining features are often referred to as MCC's or Mesoscale Convective Complexes. They are also kept going by a low level jet.

Lastly, check out the bulls-eye of precipitation over OK! This is the NAM forecast models interpretation of where the heaviest rain will fall. This could easily be off by 100 miles to the east or the west. These type of features usually develop a squall line along the leading edge and as we've seen this year already just as they push through, winds can reach damaging speeds, sometimes well in excess of 60 mph! We're monitoring developments closely over the next 24 hours and should have a good handle on our imminent threat by this time tomorrow. For now, it is something that definitely bears watching.

Keep the blog bookmarked, we'll keep you advised!

Posted by Ted Zarras at 9:47 AM