Like Ted said in his previous blog entry, even though the best jet dynamics remain to our north over the next couple of days, we'll continue to see chances for showers and storms across the area. It should be an active Wednesday near the panhandle as strong 100 knt jetstreak shakes up the atmosphere. Rapid lift and wind shear should create a large tornado potential, but what about the potential for storms across our area? Let me break down each day in what we're thinking, and remember the key to our storm chances remains in the sunshine!

Wednesday:

The cold front and the trough will remain out to our west; however, with enough daytime heating, temperatures should be able to climb into the 80's, allowing for pop up afternoon showers and storms. The cap won't be much of a factor, so if storms can fire after reaching convective temperature, they may produce small hail and gusty winds. The best spot for storms looks to be around SE OK where CAPE, Moisture, and Theta E look to pool. Dry air aloft could help create strong gusty winds as storms collapse. A moderate risk for severe weather will occur along the cold front/dryline in western Oklahoma where the best dynamics exist. You can see the strong forecasted SRH values in my picture above. The shear will be tremendous.

There will likely be ongoing convection across Kansas and Oklahoma through Thursday morning. An outflow boundary from those storms may move into our area and spark showers and storms ahead of the cold front by Thursday afternoon. Isolated severe weather can't be ruled out, especially ahead of the front. Added sunshine on Thursday will only help to destabilize the atmosphere. Large hail and gusty winds will remain the primary threats since the low level wind shear remains low. The front looks to arrive by Thursday evening, creating a good chance for widespread showers and storms along the front.

The same cold front that will provide lift for storms on Thursday will washout over us on Friday. This left over boundary could spark more afternoon and evening storms for Friday evening. Isolated strong to severe cells will be possible if enough sunshine is present. That same boundary should wave north as a warm front throughout the weekend.