I have talked to a few storm chasers recently, and they have all said the same thing, "man, this has been a very boring severe weather season so far." With the jet poised well to our north, it's no surprise the severe weather viewing has been few and very far between across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Most importantly, cabin fever is not a good situation for any storm chaser to deal with, so I want to help out in any way I can.

If you're looking for an upcoming thrill to get your Memorial Day weekend off to a good start, you better head north my friend. The dominant ridge that has been influencing our weather is set to break down; moreover, in response to energy moving across the Pacific Northwest, a decent trough will soon dig across the Midwest, creating the potential for showers and storms.

We're looking at Tuesday, May 22nd, so let's go through some of the key ingredients to get this recipe just right!

When we say fuel, we're referring to moisture. Deep moisture is needed for severe weather to develop. It's the gasoline that fires the engine. Dewpoint temperatures are a direct indicator of moisture in the air, and the map below shows forecasted dewpoints for Tuesday evening. You typically want to see spring dewpoint temperatures in the 60s for severe weather to occur. Look at the plume of deep moisture that stretches from the Gulf to the Canadian border. We'll keep our eyes out within this zone.

We must look to the jetstream for this answer. The jetstream is made up of many bundles of fast moving winds called jetstreaks, and these jetstreaks help to control atmospheric airflow and pressure by creating their own circulations. The eastern side of the trough is a good place to start in order to find rising air. This is a vertical velocity forecast at 500mb, or 18,000 ft (depicted on the right). Upward vertical velocities indicate rapidly rising air within the atmosphere. Air on the eastern side of the trough rises because of the lower amount of pressure created by diverging winds aloft and warm air advection. VV's look good from Kansas to Minnesota. We'll keep those areas in mind. Now VV's also look impressive in association with an upper level low across the Dakotas, but we'll focus on the eastern side of the trough since that's where the deep moisture exists.

The picture on the right depicts a forecast for Theta E. Theta E is directly related to the amount of heat present in a parcel of air, so it becomes a good indicator of atmospheric instability. The pooling of Theta E can also indicate the potential for a convective burst point. High Theta E is setting up along the eastern side of the ridge, so our case for severe weather to occur across eastern Kansas and Nebraska continues to get stronger.

Look at this area shaded in red and yellow across Kansas. This is a great indicator of low level wind shear from the surface to around 10,000 ft. Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) is a general indicator of low level turning of the winds, which has a direct correlation to tornado potential; however, the SRH value is not used as an indicator for supercell formation, since supercells need deep layer shear in order to develop. A SRH value greater than 250 is an indicator of moderate to strong low level shear. Not only does eastern Kansas have lift, and moisture, it also favors a sheared environment for severe storms to develop.

These are just a few factors for us to start nailing down a severe weather threat area. These conditions will likely change, so it's important to keep up with the changing parameters. You have to look throughout the atmospheric column to properly diagnose where the severe weather will develop.