It's going to be a busy couple of days as our long wave weather pattern becomes more active. Hopefully you were able to read Ted's blog below highlighting the severe weather season so far this year, but even though we haven't seen a large quantity of severe weather, that doesn't mean we're done for the season.

Dewpoints in the 60's along with Lifted Index values of -4 to -6 will easily support the threat for isolated severe weather. LI's in this range indicate the possibility for a moderately unstable atmosphere. Notice the bulls eye of dewpoints in SE OK, that may be an area to really watch, especially for convective initiation. Theta E values are also very high across SE OK, indicating the potential for an unstable atmosphere.

The shear is low across the area from 0 to 3KM. SRH values help us to identify low level areas of shear, which correlate with possible tornado development. This is good news. The tornado threat will remain low with Wednesday's storms. In addition to a low tornado threat, with a weak shear environment, it's also unusual to see large hail. Large hail needs a strong rotating updraft to support its weight, and we're not seeing that on Wednesday across our area.

CAPE values can also be used as an indicator of hail potential. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed in an updraft; moreover, the larger the CAPE, the faster the updraft. CAPE values are forecast to run from 2500 to 3000 across SE OK, so small hail will be a factor with the stronger storms.

Take a look at the picture above. The main energy from the trough will likely stay to the north on Wednesday, so we're not looking at a substantial cold pool of air aloft to initiate storms; however, strong daytime heating should be enough to break a weak CAP. In addition to small hail, strong gusty winds will also be a factor.

We'll look for showers and storms to develop toward the late afternoon and early evening as our. trigger becomes the sunshine. The most unstable area will remain south of I-40 on Wednesday, so we'll continue to monitor future model runs as we tweak the forecast.