Severe weather will likely develop this afternoon across western Arkansas and move east toward central and eastern parts of the Natural State today. Here are two key ingredients for the severe weather potential:

1. Moisture: Dewpoints this morning across Arkansas have climbed into the 60's. The moisture is very deep, and will continue to be present until a cold from the west drops the moisture.




2. Lift: The key to the severe weather is a fast moving jetstreak that will move out of the southwest late this afternoon: creating the necessary lift for showers and storms to erupt across western Arkansas. Most likely the storms will initiate close to the border of Arkansas and Oklahoma, and then rapidly move east; these storms will encounter a very favorable wind shear environment that would cause them to rotate and possibly produce tornadoes.


Logan, Newton, Pope, Yell, and Johnson counties will be under the threat for tornadic storms for this afternoon. We'll be watching this situation very closely!