Monday, January 14, 2008

SNOW CHANCES...THIS WEEK














Snow chances enter the forecast for later this week. Timing will be the major concern with these winter weather chances. There are 3 main ingredients that we look for when forecasting snow.

1) Lift

2) Moisture

3) Cold Air

LIFT
A cold front will make its way through the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This will provide the lift needed, as cold air has a higher density than warm air. So as the cold air advances it forces the warm air, moisture included, to rise. As it rises it condenses and forms clouds. The air then reaches saturation, 100% humidity, and all the left over moisture is released.

COLD AIR
This is where the cold air comes into play. If the air is below freezing at all levels of the atmosphere then the precipitation will be entirely snow. Here is a look at the temperature forecast for the surface, 850 millibar, and 700 millibar. Notice how the air is below freezing for each of these levels. Indicating the possibility of snow.
700 MB









850 MB








SURFACE








MOISTURE
Moisture is going to be the key ingredient for the snow chances. If we can pull in some moisture out of the south before the cold front moves through, then we have a good chance for some snow. Right now it looks like moisture could be limited and therefore that will influence our snow chances.
SURFACE DEW POINTS

Posted by Patrick Crawford at 5:17 AM

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