Here is a look at some of the possible tracks of the area of low pressure spinning in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. These are 4 forecast models that forecasters look at when determining storm paths of tropical weather. Notice the path of the BAMM weather model, as it brings the system directly over Arkansas. This is why we are watching this disturbance very closely. Here is some more information on these weather models.

LABR: A Nested Barotropic Hurricane Track Forecast Model.

LBAR runs quickly. LBAR performs best early in the hurricane season (before fronts penetrate into the subtropics) and on storms that move primarily westward and only move slowly northward. LBAR outperforms all the statistical track guidance models, and its skill in the 12-36 hr time frame is comparable to that of the more complex baroclinic models.

LBAR does not perform well whenever there is significant vertical wind shear, or when there are multiple, interacting storms.

BAMM: The Beta and Advection Model.

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)

GFDL: Nested Moveable Mesh Hurricane Model. Also know as GHM

The GHM is a dynamical baroclinic track prediction model. The model also produces experimental forecasts of hurricane intensity, precipitation, and wind swath maps that show the distribution of predicted maximum surface and boundary layer winds. The GHM was developed by NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University. The GHM is a triply nested, movable mesh primitive equation model formulated in latitude, longitude, with the terrain following sigma vertical coordinates.

NOGAPS: The Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System

The NOGAPS model was not designed specifically to predict the motion of tropical cyclones. Rather it is the Navy's operational global atmospheric prediction system. The NOGAPS model is run four times daily every day of the year, producing forecasts out to 144 hours.