Monday, April 23, 2007
MONDAY 1:00 PM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPDATE
After looking over some of the latest data, it’s still quite apparent that a significant severe weather event will unfold over the next few days. We’re starting to see partial breaks of sunshine to the south west and dewpoints are now in the low 60s across our entire area. As a general forecasting guideline, dewpoints above 55 are needed to sustain supercells.
As of the12Z observations, a broad trough of Low pressure is centered south of the four corners region of the US. Surface low development is occurring in the Albuquerque region of northern New Mexico with surface pressure now down to 1009mb. Air aloft at 700mb (10,000 ft.) is -4c, whereas the 700mb temp in Amarillo is 6c. *NOTE (see map above) Cold air filtering in from the North West, will continue to intensify the Low. This pool of cold air aloft will also destabilize the atmosphere and already, showers and thunderstorms are developing.
The 12Z run of the NAM has slowed down the forward movement of the Low, though the track is still to the east and over our area. The best dynamics appear to be coming together in the 6 PM to Midnight window of Tuesday. We will have a lot of jetstream energy aloft with winds blowing from the West South West as high as 130mph and a low level jet of 50mph blowing from the south. Surface winds look to be blowing from the South South East. This turning of height with the winds will aid in developing forward tilting and rotating thunderstorms, which are also known by the aforementioned name of supercells. The inflow of warm humid air into the thunderstorm rises, cools and condenses; then instead of falling back down into the storm, cutting off the fuel source, it gets blown to the front and back of the storm, allowing the thunderstorm to sustain itself for perhaps as long as a track as 200 miles. These storms will be moving at speeds of up 50mph to the north east. We will have the threat of seeing not only damaging winds and large hail, but tornadoes too. Please review your family’s severe weather plan and know what to do immediately if a Tornado warning is issued for your location.
Lastly, several embedded troughs, cycling around the low will provide the lift to initiate storm development. The dryline, which will be just to the west of OK City by tomorrow afternoon, will likely be a hot spot for storm initiation too. With the slower speed of the parent Low, it is likely that large storms on Tuesday, will transition into a batch of heavy rain with embedded lightning and thunder, lasting into the early morning hours of Wednesday. We’ll then be watching for redevelopment of storms by Wed. afternoon, which may last once again overnight, into the early morning hours of Thursday.
We will be making updates throughout this entire event. Keep it tuned to 40/29, we’ve got you covered on-air and on the web!
As of the12Z observations, a broad trough of Low pressure is centered south of the four corners region of the US. Surface low development is occurring in the Albuquerque region of northern New Mexico with surface pressure now down to 1009mb. Air aloft at 700mb (10,000 ft.) is -4c, whereas the 700mb temp in Amarillo is 6c. *NOTE (see map above) Cold air filtering in from the North West, will continue to intensify the Low. This pool of cold air aloft will also destabilize the atmosphere and already, showers and thunderstorms are developing.
The 12Z run of the NAM has slowed down the forward movement of the Low, though the track is still to the east and over our area. The best dynamics appear to be coming together in the 6 PM to Midnight window of Tuesday. We will have a lot of jetstream energy aloft with winds blowing from the West South West as high as 130mph and a low level jet of 50mph blowing from the south. Surface winds look to be blowing from the South South East. This turning of height with the winds will aid in developing forward tilting and rotating thunderstorms, which are also known by the aforementioned name of supercells. The inflow of warm humid air into the thunderstorm rises, cools and condenses; then instead of falling back down into the storm, cutting off the fuel source, it gets blown to the front and back of the storm, allowing the thunderstorm to sustain itself for perhaps as long as a track as 200 miles. These storms will be moving at speeds of up 50mph to the north east. We will have the threat of seeing not only damaging winds and large hail, but tornadoes too. Please review your family’s severe weather plan and know what to do immediately if a Tornado warning is issued for your location.
Lastly, several embedded troughs, cycling around the low will provide the lift to initiate storm development. The dryline, which will be just to the west of OK City by tomorrow afternoon, will likely be a hot spot for storm initiation too. With the slower speed of the parent Low, it is likely that large storms on Tuesday, will transition into a batch of heavy rain with embedded lightning and thunder, lasting into the early morning hours of Wednesday. We’ll then be watching for redevelopment of storms by Wed. afternoon, which may last once again overnight, into the early morning hours of Thursday.
We will be making updates throughout this entire event. Keep it tuned to 40/29, we’ve got you covered on-air and on the web!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 10:30 AM
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