Ted Zarras says it best, "a cut off low, is a weatherman's woe!" We're back in that situation toward the end of the weekend. Look at the NAM's progression of this cut-off feature.



This picture above shows the trough getting pinched of from the main upper level flow.



The cut off low develops late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Now the fun forecasting begins.



At this point the cut-off feature will move over us on Sunday creating a decent chance for cold rain; however, cold air will wrap around the low for Monday morning, and that could spell a wintry mix for the morning commute. This is all subject to change, and we'll watch it closely.