Morning UPDATE

Visible Satelite Image

Surfaced based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)

Note how well the visible satellite shot and the map of surface based CAPE match up. Most of the convection is happening in the area where the atmosphere is not inhibited by a layer of warm air aloft. This area is not “capped”. Areas in blue are regions of CIN or locals where there is Convective Inhibition. These areas are capped.

We’re seeing showers and thunderstorms develop in association with the same cut-off Low we’ve been discussing over the past several days. A healthy Low Level Jet (LLJ) developed last night and sustained a batch of convection in the early morning hours across parts of eastern OK. A wave spiraling around the low coupled with the LLJ prompted a Tornado watch box and some big storms on the southern side of the box where the atmosphere was most unstable. We’re still tracking a boundary that will in essence push out the Low and kick off more activity over the next 24 hours or so. Some of these storms may contain hail and gusty winds.

Posted by Ted Zarras at 11:30 AM