A very active pattern is setting up over the next several days across our area; severe weather may develop in response to the strong jetstream aloft.

The NAM computer model is more aggressive with the development of storms for Friday. Here are some of the important ingredients being forecasted in our area:



The nose of the 250 mb jetstream aloft moves into our area by Friday evening. The first key to forecast severe weather is to identify the upper level jet dynamics. The winds aloft diverge over our area, indicating strong lift and convergence to develop at the surface; moreover, these winds aloft will also enhance wind shear within the atmosphere. Rapidly rising air is the first key in identifying severe weather potential.



The lifted index can be a important indicator of severe weather potential. We'll need to focus on the bulls eye across SE OK and SW AR. A Lifted Index from -5 to -6 would present a decent threat for surfaced based storms to occur. Surface based storms that develop within a highly sheared environment can produce tornadoes, so it's important to note where they may form. Deep low level moisture is also forecast for that area.



The NAM model is really zoning in on SE OK and SW AR for Friday afternoon. The CAPE value is also a valuable tool for meteorologists to use in diagnosing severe weather; a large CAPE indicates the potential for strong updrafts to develop within storms; a large CAPE value can also indicate the potential for severe hail.

We'll continue to evaluate the new model data for Friday, but it looks interesting so far! Welcome to Severe Weather Season.......