Wednesday, March 05, 2008
ROUND 2
A lot of key winter storm ingredients are coming together over the next 24 hours which may prove to be all too helpful in dishing out some impressive snow. Yep, we just got finished with one storm and now here's another... offering a chance of redemption in the totals category! Oh, let the tricky fun begin. The map below represents upper air patterns at approximately 30,000'. Due to the positioning of the fastest regions of air known as jetstreaks the area in blue, which happens to be bulls-eyed over our area will develop enhanced rising motion, ultimately leading to enhanced precipitation.
For several days we've been monitoring a Canadian High that's been poised to drop into the country, bringing in a lot of cold air. This has remained a steady feature in our long range forecast for the Thursday time frame. What has not been a constant however, is a strong short wave that's just now dropping into a substantial trough to our west. This trough is dug out pretty far, meaning the bottom of the dip extends far to the south. This trough is visible on water vapor imagery below over California. On the downstream side, over New Mexico and the panhandle of Texas, moisture in mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is collecting, showing up on the map as shades of blue. This moisture will interact with the wave, presently over the four corners region of the States.
Check out the wave further to the south on the map below. Look closely over the Baja region and you'll see another little dip in the isobars... yet another wave! These features will merge and "kick up" a substantial area of Low pressure at the surface. The present track of this forming Storm is just to our south on a SW to NE path. We'll remain on the cold side, meaning most of the precipitation will fall as snow! *Just to have it writing, the 00z NAM/WRF model run is spitting out about 2.25" of liquid precipitation in Fort Smith on this storm. At a standard ration of 10 to 1, this would translate to 22.5" of snow! THAT IS CRAZY! Take half of that ratio, calling it a wet snow and that's 11.25" of snow! THAT IS CRAZY TOO!
For several days we've been monitoring a Canadian High that's been poised to drop into the country, bringing in a lot of cold air. This has remained a steady feature in our long range forecast for the Thursday time frame. What has not been a constant however, is a strong short wave that's just now dropping into a substantial trough to our west. This trough is dug out pretty far, meaning the bottom of the dip extends far to the south. This trough is visible on water vapor imagery below over California. On the downstream side, over New Mexico and the panhandle of Texas, moisture in mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is collecting, showing up on the map as shades of blue. This moisture will interact with the wave, presently over the four corners region of the States.Check out the wave further to the south on the map below. Look closely over the Baja region and you'll see another little dip in the isobars... yet another wave! These features will merge and "kick up" a substantial area of Low pressure at the surface. The present track of this forming Storm is just to our south on a SW to NE path. We'll remain on the cold side, meaning most of the precipitation will fall as snow! *Just to have it writing, the 00z NAM/WRF model run is spitting out about 2.25" of liquid precipitation in Fort Smith on this storm. At a standard ration of 10 to 1, this would translate to 22.5" of snow! THAT IS CRAZY! Take half of that ratio, calling it a wet snow and that's 11.25" of snow! THAT IS CRAZY TOO!
Rest assured, we're watching this one... perhaps it's destined for the books and future case studies! Be sure to check back for a snowfall map soon.
THINK SNOW!
Posted by Ted Zarras at 4:21 PM
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